Dear friends, good day!
Greece has been removed from the list of countries with macroeconomic imbalances.
This is undoubtedly a significant development. Perhaps one of the most important in recent years.
Not because it automatically changes people’s lives. Nor because it will lower the cost of living or raise wages tomorrow. But because it symbolically closes a sixteen-year cycle that began with the collapse of 2010 and was accompanied by memoranda, supervision, evaluations, and doubts about the country’s very ability to stand on its own two feet.
The European Commission’s recognition is neither a formality nor a favor.
It is the result of a long and arduous process of adjustment, sacrifices, and reforms. And for that reason, it would be wrong to underestimate it.
It would be equally wrong, however, to turn it into what often happens in Greek public life: an occasion for triumphalism, smug smiles, and premature celebrations.
Because the very same report that removes Greece from the list of imbalances is the one that explains why the country is still far from being considered a fully resilient and competitive European economy. One need only read the entire text, not just the title.
The Greek economy is growing faster than the European average. Excellent. Except that real GDP remains nearly 14% below its 2008 level.
Public debt is falling at an impressive rate. Very positive. Except that it remains the highest in the European Union.
Unemployment has fallen, and significantly so. Absolutely correct. Except that labor productivity stands at just 54.6% of the European average.
The banks have been restructured. Certainly. But tens of billions of euros in “non-performing” loans remain in the economy, hindering its smooth functioning.
The digital transition is moving forward. But innovation, research, and technological upgrading remain far behind European performance.
And this is how the report’s central truth is revealed.
Greece no longer faces systemic risks that threaten the stability of its economy. However, it still faces risks that threaten its prospects.
And these are often more insidious. Demographics. Low productivity. Weak innovation. The housing crisis.
Regional inequalities. Delays in the justice system. Dependence on low-value-added sectors. Most importantly, the inability to translate growth into real convergence with Europe.
The Commission, in fact, is saying something very simple. Greece is no longer the problem it used to be. However, it has not yet become the solution it would like to be, and that is perhaps the most important point.
For the first time in many years, the country is not being called upon to manage an immediate crisis. It is being called upon to address its chronic weaknesses. The ones that cannot be fixed with a single bill. They cannot be cured by a ministerial decision, nor do they disappear with a government announcement.
That is why the political debate that will follow, in the run-up to the elections, matters. If it is limited to who deserves credit for the success, we will have missed the point.
If, on the other hand, it focuses on the problems that are still clearly documented in the report’s pages, then today can indeed serve as a starting point for the next step. Exiting macroeconomic imbalances is a milestone.
Not the finish line. And countries that confuse their milestones with their destination usually discover, sooner or later, that reality never joins in their celebrations.
The Commission gave Greece a pat on the back yesterday. Anyone who reads the report carefully, however, will find that the most important messages are not in the praise. They are in the highlighted problems that remain there, stubbornly present, waiting for solutions.
That is the essence. Everything else is just the fanfare.