Eurobank Equities maintains a “Hold” rating and a target price of €13.40 for Allwyn shares following the first-quarter results, noting that strong accounting growth continues to be overshadowed by extraordinary costs, increased borrowing, and limited visibility into actual cash flows to shareholders.
As the brokerage notes, the results were in line with its estimates, with net revenue rising 21% to €1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 24% to €443 million, mainly due to the first-time consolidation of PrizePicks.
However, as Eurobank notes, organic growth was clearly more subdued. Excluding PrizePicks, Allwyn’s management reported an increase of just 3.5% in net revenue and 6% in EBITDA, with the increased stake in Betano offsetting adverse effects from taxation in Austria, exchange rates, and the challenging comparative base for lotteries.
Eurobank Equities also highlights that adjustments to EBITDA nearly doubled year-over-year, reaching €107 million, resulting in operating EBITDA growing by just 11%, significantly lower than the 24% growth in adjusted figures.
At the same time, net debt rose to €5.35 billion following the acquisition of PrizePicks, while the brokerage estimates that 2026 will mark the low point in terms of free cash flow to shareholders, due to payments for acquisitions and operating licenses.
Although the stock has fallen by approximately 23% over the past four months, Eurobank Equities believes it continues to trade at a premium relative to most of its competitors, maintaining its target price at €13.40.