Dear friends, good day!
Whether Antonis Samaras ultimately forms a party is no longer the most interesting question. The real question is why more than a million voters abandoned New Democracy within the span of a year and why, despite the government’s efforts, they have not returned.
Because this is the political reality that determines developments within the center-right bloc. Everything else follows.
From the 2023 parliamentary elections to the 2024 European elections, New Democracy lost over a million votes. And most importantly? Since then, it has failed to regain the lost ground. Polls may show small fluctuations, but the big picture remains the same. A large portion of its electoral base remains outside the party’s fold.
Is this simply a case of the government wearing thin? Hardly.
A loss of this magnitude does not constitute a typical dip in the polls. It constitutes a political shift. And political shifts, when they become entrenched, create new realities, new balances, and often new political actors.
This is precisely where the possibility of a Samaras party comes into play.
For the first time in many years, the political space to the right and further right of New Democracy does not appear fragmented, but rather in the process of taking shape. The undecided, the disillusioned New Democracy voters, those who have shifted toward smaller right-wing parties, and those who believe the government has strayed from the party’s traditional principles constitute a politically viable and electorally significant pool.
That is why the discussion about Samaras concerns not so much him personally as the overall realignment of the so-called “right-wing political spectrum.”
The prevailing view holds that a new party will take votes away from New Democracy. This will most likely happen. However, it will simultaneously affect the other parties in this political space as well. Niki, the Greek Solution, and the Voice of Reason already appeal to an audience that largely comes from the conservative voter base.
The emergence of a former prime minister with a strong political legacy could shift the current balance of power and redefine who represents what on the right and far-right of New Democracy.
Of particular interest is the so-called Karamanlis base of the party. Not necessarily as an organized political current, but as a social and electoral reference point. As part of New Democracy’s traditional constituency. If a segment of this base feels that the current leadership of New Democracy does not adequately represent it, then developments may prove far more complex than a simple split or shift in votes.
Reports of lawmakers considering the possibility of following the former prime minister reinforce this picture. Regardless of whether they are confirmed or not, they reveal that the discussion has moved from the realm of political rumor to that of actual processes. However, all of the above only answer the question of where a Samaras-led party might draw its votes from. They do not answer why citizens should choose this party.
Because disagreement with Kyriakos Mitsotakis is not enough to build a majority political movement. Neither criticism of Greek-Turkish relations, nor condemnation of government policy, nor invoking the traditional right-wing identity constitute, on their own , a comprehensive proposal for governance.
Citizens who have abandoned New Democracy are not simply looking for a new vehicle for protest. They are seeking answers regarding the cost of living, housing, income, security, demographics, health, and the country’s prospects. And that is precisely where the real challenge lies for Antonis Samaras. Not whether he can articulate the discontent of a significant segment of the center-right base. That already seems likely. The question is whether he can transform that discontent into a political proposal for power.
Because protest parties find an audience relatively easily. We saw this with the poll numbers that M. Karistianou’s party garnered and, earlier, with SYRIZA. Parties in power need much more: a plan , leaders, a platform, and a compelling vision for the future.
And that is where Samaras’s venture will ultimately be judged. Not on whether he can articulate the problem facing the right-wing camp, but on whether he can convince people that he is the solution to it.