The prospect of two interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank in 2026, driven by inflationary pressures linked to the Iran-Israel war, is changing the landscape for Greek banks.
The market considers a first hike of 25 basis points at the ECB meeting on June 11 to be almost certain, with the main deposit rate set at 2.25%.
Based on Beta Securities’ estimates of the sensitivity of net interest income (NII), this move could add approximately €74 million to this year’s revenues for Eurobank, Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank, and National Bank, an amount corresponding to an average exceedance of current targets by 86 basis points.
Piraeus Bank appears to be the biggest beneficiary, as the impact amounts to a 1.08% boost compared to the 2026 guidance, or approximately €22 million.
National Bank follows with a benefit of approximately €22 million, while the rise in interest rates bolsters the scenario of a recovery in its revenues following the low point recorded in 2025.
For Eurobank, the benefit is estimated at approximately €19 million, serving as an additional “cushion” to an already strong performance that appears capable of exceeding management’s targets. Already, based on net interest income of €664 million in the first quarter, NII for the full year is estimated at approximately €2.7 billion
In contrast, Alpha Bank, due to the more defensive structure of its balance sheet against interest rate changes, exhibits the lowest sensitivity, with an estimated benefit of €11 million for the remainder of the year. In general, every 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the ECB boosts interest income by just €20 million, roughly half that of National Bank and Piraeus Bank.
As Beta Securities notes, the immediate financial benefit remains relatively limited. However, the essence lies in the shift in the investment narrative: from concerns about pressure on net interest income to a scenario of gradual recovery with additional upside potential should the upward trend in interest rates continue.