Jefferies is particularly bullish on the outlook for Greek banks, arguing that the sector’s investment case is now underpinned by one of the strongest macroeconomic environments in Europe.
The U.S. firm reiterates its Buy rating for all four systemic banks, noting that they continue to trade at a discount of approximately 15% relative to the European banking sector.
In its report titled “Greek Banks: Macroeconomic Picture Remains Robust – from Recovery to Growth,” Jefferies emphasizes that the Greek economy has now moved from the recovery phase to the phase of sustainable growth, creating an extremely favorable backdrop for credit expansion and bank profitability.
Greece is outpacing Europe
As Jefferies points out, the Greek economy continues to grow faster than the Eurozone average for the fifth consecutive year.
In 2025, GDP growth stood at 2.1%, compared to 1.4% in the Eurozone, while in the first quarter of 2026, growth reached 2%, when the Eurozone average was limited to 0.7%. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years, driven primarily by investment and private consumption.
In fact, Jefferies cites a recent statement by the Governor of the Bank of Greece, according to which the country has moved from a period of recovery to a phase of “strategic acceleration.”
Historical vindication after the crisis
The firm places particular emphasis on the European Commission’s recent decision to remove Greece from the category of countries facing macroeconomic imbalances.
As it notes, this is a historic milestone 16 years after the outbreak of the Greek debt crisis, as the country is no longer subject to the relevant monitoring regime for the first time since 2010.
Fiscal Overperformance
Particular emphasis is also placed on the country’s fiscal picture. Greece was one of only five European countries to post a fiscal surplus in 2025, at 1.7% of GDP, while the European Union as a whole recorded a deficit of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the primary surplus reached 4.9% of GDP, while it is estimated at 3.2% for 2026.
According to Jefferies, strong budget execution offers significant room for policy flexibility, while the outperformance of tax revenues confirms the economy’s momentum.
Strong demand for loans
Perhaps the most important factor for banks is that credit expansion remains strong. According to Jefferies, the overall loan growth rate stood at 8%, with business loans rising by 11%, levels significantly higher than the Eurozone average. Businesses continue to be the main driver of growth in banks’ loan portfolios, while a gradual recovery is also being recorded in mortgage lending.
Jefferies believes that credit growth will continue to outperform the Eurozone in the medium term, as the country still has a significant investment gap relative to the rest of Europe.
The Recovery Fund continues to provide support
The outlook remains positive on the Recovery Fund front as well. Although the period for launching new projects ends this year, Jefferies estimates that the impact of RRF funds will continue in the coming years through disbursements to projects that have already been approved.
To date, approximately €5.8 billion has been disbursed out of the total €18 billion in loan funds to which Greece is entitled, meaning that there remains significant scope for new financing and bank participation through co-financed projects.