Bank of America (BofA) reiterates its optimism regarding Metlen’s prospects, maintaining its “Buy” rating and price target of 52 euros per share, which implies upside potential of approximately 24%–25% from current levels.
The U.S. bank is upgrading its forecasts for the period after 2027, incorporating for the first time the contribution from gallium production and higher estimates for realized aluminum prices.
In its report titled “Gallium Project = Leaning into Critical Minerals,” BofA notes that Metlen is emerging as a key player in Europe’s strategy for autonomy in critical raw materials, as it moves forward with the construction of an industrial-scale facility for gallium production at its site in Greece.
Gallium is a game-changer
The bank’s analysts recently visited the company’s aluminum plant and the pilot gallium production unit, where, as they note, they observed the metal being produced under actual operating conditions. According to Metlen’s business plan, the commercial plant is expected to begin operations in late 2027 or early 2028, with a target production of approximately 50 metric tons per year.
Management had estimated during the 2025 Capital Markets Day that the project could add approximately 40 million euros in EBITDA annually, based on a gallium price of $1,000 per kilogram. However, BofA points out that current Western spot prices are more than double that level, leading to an estimate of additional operating profitability of 80–90 million euros annually—an amount equivalent to 6%–7% of the EBITDA projected for 2028.
A Strategic Metal for AI, 5G, and Defense
The report emphasizes that gallium is a metal that is small in volume but extremely critical to the global semiconductor industry. It is used in technologies such as high-frequency chips, 5G infrastructure, radar systems, satellites, LEDs, photodiodes, and artificial intelligence applications.
The market is characterized by an extremely high concentration of supply, as China controls approximately 98%–99% of global production, which amounts to just 700–750 metric tons per year. In this context, Metlen’s planned production could cover most, if not all, of Europe’s gallium needs, according to BofA.
Upward Revision of Forecasts for 2028
The bank has significantly revised its estimates for 2028. Specifically:
- Revenue is projected to increase by 3% to 8.25 billion euros.
- EBITDA is revised upward by 16% to 1.37 billion euros.
- Adjusted net income is projected to rise by 27% to 722 million euros.
- Earnings per share (EPS) are revised upward by 27% to 5.05 euros.
The most significant contribution comes from the Metals segment, where BofA forecasts an 118% increase in EBITDA compared to previous estimates for 2028, thanks to higher aluminum prices and the inclusion of revenue from gallium.
Next target: scandium and germanium
Beyond gallium, BofA notes that Metlen is exploring the production of other specialized critical metals, such as scandium and germanium, further strengthening its position in the European supply chain for strategic raw materials.
At the same time, analysts note that the company has revised its strategy in the EPCM and renewable energy sectors following the 2025 profitability warnings, now placing greater emphasis on projects with predetermined returns and lower execution risk.