Berenberg issues a “Buy” recommendation and a price target of 55 euros per share in its analysis of the stock. We estimate that, as the company implements its business plan, the stock—which is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x for 2026—will continue to be revalued upward by the market, the analysts write.
Metlen is expected to report its results for the first half of 2026 on August 6. The company reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of 2.05 billion euros, up 37% year-over-year, primarily due to growth in its Renewable Energy, Energy Storage and Energy Transition (+168% year-over-year) and Infrastructure (+92% year-over-year).
In the Energy sector, the storage project portfolio was expanded to 2 GW through agreements with PPC and Tsakos, while the 283 MW portfolio of photovoltaic projects in the United Kingdom was sold to Schroders Greencoat as part of the asset rotation strategy (asset rotation).
We are monitoring the situation for further updates on the progress of this strategy. Volumes in the Metals sector were generally in line with expectations, with the group advancing its investment program in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum. We expect strong operating performance to continue in this sector, which, in our view, continues to benefit from resilient aluminum prices (+13% year-to-date), amid supply disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. We forecast first-half revenue of 3.7 billion euros, EBITDA of 536 million euros, and earnings per share (EPS) of 1.96 euros.
In the Energy sector, our focus for the remainder of 2026 will be on implementing the 2 GW energy storage project portfolio and advancing our asset rotation strategy following the sale of the UK solar portfolio.
We continue to believe that a better market understanding of the financial mechanisms underlying the asset rotation strategy (i.e., profit recognition and changes in working capital) will act as a risk-mitigating factor for the stock, and we are seeking more information in this regard, the analysts write.
In the Metals sector, we expect the gradual increase in production capacity at the gallium production facility to continue, with the aim of commencing production in 2027, as well as progress in securing offtake agreements with partners from the U.S., Japan, and Europe.
We expect updates on the Circular Metals pilot plant, which was approximately 65% complete as of mid-May, with the goal of first production in the first quarter of 2027, as well as on the progress of the alumina refinery expansion from 865,000 metric tons to 1.25 million metric tons, a project currently under construction and expected to be fully operational in the fourth quarter of 2027.
In the Defense sector, we expect progress on the expansion of the Volos industrial ecosystem from two to six production units, which are expected to be fully operational in 2028.