The data show that oil prices play a decisive role in the trend of inflation in Greece. It is no coincidence that inflation has spiked every time energy prices have risen significantly. We saw this recently, as well as in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The price of “black gold” has fallen recently, with Brent crude at $78 per barrel last night and U.S. crude at $74, but it remains volatile due to often conflicting announcements from Iran and the U.S. The decline in prices is attributed to a reduction in geopolitical risk following the initial agreement between Iran and the U.S. to hold talks between their delegations in Switzerland.
Executives from the oil industry appear pessimistic, as they believe the market has not accurately assessed the actual situation on the ground.
For them, things are not all rosy. OECD commercial inventories are at their lowest level since 1990, and U.S. strategic petroleum reserves fell by nearly 9 million barrels in a single week. Furthermore, U.S. reserves have declined for the eighth consecutive week.
For them, the Iran-U.S. deal came too late. Even if everything goes well, not enough Iranian oil will reach the market to cover the global oil shortage. As one of them put it, the market is pricing in a decline in oil demand due to an economic recession that isn’t on the horizon, while at the same time anticipating increased supply from a deal that hasn’t been finalized.
However, that is one side of the story. The other side sees things differently. Proponents of the opposing view believe there is an oversupply in the oil market. The question they pose is this: Two months ago, the spot price of oil reached $150, and today it stands between $70 and $80. What has changed?
Their answer differs from the ones above. In 2025, they say, the market was in a state of oversupply, with supply set to increase by 3 million barrels per day through 2027. The fact that prices remained in the $60–$70 range last year and this year through the end of February can be explained by two factors. First, China’s oil purchases to bolster its strategic reserves, and second, the reduction in geopolitical risk.
In the wake of the war and all that has transpired, they estimate that oil supply will increase by more than 1 million barrels per day by 2027, with half of that coming from the U.S. For them, the question is a different one. Even if China resumes oil imports to bolster its strategic reserves, the global oversupply will put downward pressure on prices.
The only way to prevent this from happening is for demand for oil to skyrocket. That doesn’t sound feasible.
Therefore, a further decline in prices is the most likely scenario for countries like Greece. That will be the good news of 2027.