Optima Bank has expressed confidence in Allwyn’s prospects, initiating coverage of the stock with a target price of 15.25 euros and a “buy” recommendation
The firm believes that the significant correction in the stock price following the transition from OPAP to the new corporate structure now creates an attractive entry point for investors, as the market does not fully value the group’s growth potential.
As it points out, Allwyn has now moved beyond OPAP’s traditional investment profile, which was based on stable cash flows and high dividend yields, and is evolving into an international gaming group with a presence in seven regulated markets and multiple growth drivers. According to Optima, geographic and business diversification reduces dependence on a single market and strengthens the resilience of the business model.
A catalyst for further growth is the recent acquisition of PrizePicks in the U.S., which provides exposure to the rapidly growing daily fantasy sports sector and significantly expands the company’s footprint in the U.S. market.
Despite the strong growth narrative, the stock has fallen by approximately 35% since the announcement of the new corporate structure. Optima attributes the decline to the dilution of earnings and dividends per share for former OPAP shareholders, increased leverage, potential changes in tax regimes in the markets where the company operates, and reduced visibility for the 2026–2030 period.
However, the brokerage firm believes the valuation remains attractive, highlighting the dividend yield of 7.3% as well as the recently announced €150 million share buyback program.
At the same time, potential catalysts include the possible upgrade of the Greek market to “developed” status by STOXX and FTSE this year and by MSCI in 2027, as well as the planned transfer of the company’s trading to the Euronext platform.
In terms of scale, Optima forecasts an increase in net revenue from 4.1 billion euros in 2026 to 7.6 billion euros in 2031, while adjusted EBITDA is estimated to rise from 1.6 billion to 2.6 billion euros. Net income is expected to grow even faster, reaching 1.1 billion euros by 2031.
Using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, Optima estimates Allwyn’s fair value at 15.25 euros per share, seeing significant upside potential from current levels.