After four consecutive sessions of declines, with the General Index posting cumulative losses of 2.07% and the banking sector index losing 5.25%, an attempt at a rebound was made today, though its duration remains uncertain, unless the international stock market climate also contributes to it.
Taking the developments in chronological order, the U.S. and Iran agreed on Sunday to suspend hostilities, begin new talks starting tomorrow, and allow the free passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, following a weekend of military clashes that threatened to derail negotiations to end the crisis in the Middle East.
“Iran has requested a meeting. A meeting will take place tomorrow in Doha, the capital of Qatar,” Donald Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
It should be noted that the Russell 2000 small-cap index on Wall Street closed Friday’s trading session at a new all-time high.
As a reminder, the U.S. market will be closed this coming Friday (Independence Day).
Returning to the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), it should be noted that today’s session did not impress in terms of trading volume (the lowest volume in the last five sessions), despite the fact that the ASE’s main indices remained in positive territory throughout the day.
On the other hand, the banking index’s final gain of +1.26% leaves no room for doubt as to which sector led today’s rally, but the rebound from intraday lows was at least noticeable.
According to those who are cautiously optimistic, “it is considered only a matter of time before buyers return to bank stocks, as they will rush to price in the satisfactory first-half results that are expected.”
According to the financial calendars of the major banks—and barring any last-minute changes—PIR will announce its first-half results on July 29, followed by ETE, EUROB, and OPTIMA will announce their first-half results on July 30; ALPHA on July 31; BOCHGR on August 4 (which will also announce an interim dividend payment); and CREDIA on August 6.
It is worth noting that tomorrow marks the end of the first half of the stock market year, with all that this may entail for the final portfolio restructuring moves, as well as potential window dressing where “interested parties” are involved, while the picture so far continues to support those who argue that “the Athens Stock Exchange will continue to rise with a few and fall with everyone.”
“Investors are expected to remain selective, as the market continues to rebalance technically overbought conditions following four consecutive days of declines. While the recent pullback has helped ease short-term valuation and momentum pressures, the broader uptrend remains intact, suggesting that buying interest is likely to re-emerge selectively in stocks with strong fundamentals and positive catalysts, with the energy sector remaining in the spotlight,” Beta Sec notes.
On the other hand, the end of the half-year will also bring the final assessment of the free float for several listed companies, as changes to the listing and trading regime on the European capital market are expected in the coming period as part of the implementation of the Listing Act. Among the key changes is the reduction of the minimum required free float percentage to 10%, subject to the relevant national transposition of the new rules. Euronext has already provided for the possibility of accepting a free float percentage lower than 25%, with a minimum threshold of 5%, while during the transitional period, the application of a 10% threshold is being considered in order to provide greater flexibility to companies seeking to list on the stock exchange. In essence, this announcement overturns the Kontopoulos Regulation, which set a 25% free float threshold—at least for companies listing with a valuation below 200 million euros (for listed companies with a market capitalization exceeding 200 million euros, the minimum free float percentage may be limited to 15%).
In any case, the listed companies that continue to face the risk of being moved to the “under observation” category will be announced in early July. Any requests that may arise will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. The regulation refers to the average half-yearly dispersion.
Most analysts express clear concern, noting that “this barrage of announcements by listed companies regarding capital increases and bond issuances, along with the ongoing raising of liquidity, is beginning to resemble an ‘overdose’ situation, and when things get out of hand, significant negative surprises usually lurk at the end of the road.”
According to a veteran market insider, “following the announcements of a 650-million capital increase and a 300-million bond issue by AKTR—which this column had foreshadowed in a timely manner—and the announced 250-million capital increase for ELHA (approval by the general meeting is expected on July 9), it is now the turn of a major listed company that, with the same “story” (energy infrastructure), will consider the possibility of raising capital. If approved, the capital increase was scheduled for September, but the latest information suggests that the procedures may be expedited.”
Meanwhile, according to the Hellenic Capital Market Commission’s report regarding net short positions exceeding 0.5%:
Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership continues to hold a net short position of 0.50525% in QLCO shares; JP Morgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd holds a net short position of 0.80012% in MTLN shares, AKO Capital LLP holds a net short position of 1.31857% in MTLN shares, and Marshall Wace LLP holds a net short position of 0.71013% in MTLN shares.
As of June 26, Qube Research & Technologies Limited increased its net short position to 0.74346% from 0.61894% in BYLOT shares and to 0.63356% from 0.51337% in ADMIE shares.
Major European markets saw marginal changes, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach as they focus their attention on the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, which opens this afternoon with a speech by Christine Lagarde. On Wednesday, the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, will speak on a panel.
Beyond that, the week ahead will focus on U.S. labor market data. Several key indicators will be released in succession, culminating in the June jobs report on Thursday.
“A strong labor market will confirm the resilience of the U.S. economy. At the same time, it could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain high for a longer period, adding to the upward pressure on precious metals,” analysts note.
In the eurozone, preliminary inflation data for June will be released on Wednesday.
On the other hand, concerns about valuations in the artificial intelligence sector are certainly not over.
The latest report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), among other things, states that “excessive optimism surrounding the sector could lead to a prolonged investment crash, with significant consequences for international markets and the global economy.” The five largest providers of cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure services are expected to invest more than $1 trillion during the 2025–2026 period. If the returns on these investments prove to be lower than expected, investors may withdraw their funding en masse, turning the current investment “boom” into a prolonged period of investment contraction.”
Yields in the bond market are stabilizing for all issuers. The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note stands at 4.10%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.37% (the 30-year yield is at 4.86%). The yield on the Greek 10-year bond is at 3.534%.
The General Index remained in positive territory throughout the day, reaching an intraday high of 2,477.64 points (+1.16%). At 5:00 p.m., it stood at 2,477.64 (+1.16%) and closed at 2,467.5 points, with daily gains of 0.74%.
Trading volume stood at 237.3 million, of which 51.6 million related to pre-arranged trades (ALWN, AKTR, CREDIA, OPTIMA, ADMIE, ETE, PIR, AIA, BIO, ELPE, EUROB, SAR, DEI, ALFA, GEKTERNA), with EUROB and ETE accounting for 28% of the total gross trading value.
Of the total turnover of 237.3 million, 216.3 million relate to trades in FTSE25 stocks.