“Sell in May and go away.” The phrase originated in London circles, when stockbrokers and wealthy investors used to leave the City for their summer vacations and return just in time for the annual St. Leger’s Day Stakes, one of London’s most famous horse races and the oldest in the world. Two centuries later, the expression endures because it is rooted in something more enduring than legend: the long-term seasonality of the stock markets, a pattern of returns that, if nothing else, has a respectable track record.
“For journalists, analysts, and investors, the best use of ‘Sell in May’ is as a seasonal warning sign rather than an absolute rule. It reminds us that historical market ‘weather’ tends to become more unfavorable as the calendar moves toward summer. But in a world shaped by tariffs, “enthusiasm” for artificial intelligence, surprises in corporate earnings, tensions in the Middle East, and changes in central banks’ interest rate policies, the major forces at play may now extend far beyond a single calendar month. “The old adage still encapsulates a truth about the markets’ memory. It simply no longer guarantees their behavior,” as Manos Hatzidakis (Beta Sec.) points out.
Confirming the above, the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 ended yesterday’s trading session on Wall Street at new all-time highs, with the former closing above 52,000 points for the first time (note that the U.S. market will be closed this coming Friday—Independence Day), while the EuroStoxx 50, EuroStoxx 600, Nikkei, and Kospi indices have also recently reached multi-year or all-time highs. So those who followed the “sell in May” adage likely watched the markets’ new highs from a distance, despite the fluctuating tensions in the Persian Gulf.
Turning to the Athens Stock Exchange, today marked the final trading session of the month and the first half of the year, and it did not particularly resemble other sessions that coincided with half-year closings and were dominated by “window dressing” activity.
On the contrary, any surprises today came from the closing auctions, as “overdue” portfolio restructurings pushed the main ATHEX indices to their daily lows, along with six large-cap stocks (detailed reference below in the commentary)
As for the other characteristics of today’s session, the fact that in the overwhelming majority of trades, stocks trading in the red were the ones “leading the charge”—a clear indication of the prolonged disfavor that a significant portion of the market has fallen into.
June proved to be the third consecutive month of gains, with monthly gains of 3.67% for the General Index and 1.25% for the banking sector index.
Since the beginning of the year, the General Index has posted gains of 15.99% and the Banking Sector Index gains of 20.52%.
GEKTERNA was the top-performing stock of the first half of the year (+73.09%).
Starting tomorrow, the new month will intensify discussions at brokerage firms, which will focus on forecasts and estimates of banks’ first-half results—expected to be satisfactory and perhaps leading to new reports with upgraded price – targets for the sector.
According to the financial calendars of the major banks, and barring any last-minute changes, PIR will announce its first-half results on July 29, followed by ETE, EUROB, and OPTIMA will announce their first-half results on July 30; ALPHA on July 31; BOCHGR on August 4 (which will also announce an interim dividend payment); and CREDIA on August 6.
On the other hand, the end of the half-year will also bring the final assessment of the free float for several listed companies, as changes to the listing and trading regime in the European capital market are expected in the coming period, as part of the implementation of the Listing Act. Among the key changes is the reduction of the minimum required free float percentage to 10%, subject to the relevant national transposition of the new rules.
Euronext has already provided for the possibility of accepting a free float percentage lower than 25%, with a minimum threshold of 5%, while during the transitional period, the application of a 10% threshold is being considered in order to provide greater flexibility to companies seeking to list on the Stock Exchange. In essence, this announcement overturns the Kontopoulos Regulation, which set a 25% free float threshold—at least for companies listing with a valuation below 200 million euros (for listed companies with a market capitalization exceeding 200 million euros, the minimum free float percentage may be limited to 15%).
In any case, by mid-July, the listed companies that continue to face the risk of being transferred to the “Supervision” category or to the Alternative Market will be announced. Any requests that may be submitted will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. The regulation refers to the average half-yearly dispersion.
Major European markets are showing positive signs and a willingness to rebound. It is worth noting that tomorrow Eurostat will release data on overall inflation trends in the Eurozone. Analysts expect a slowdown to 3% from 3.2%.
Meanwhile, “the Eurozone economy appears to have become more resilient to economic shocks, a fact that allows the European Central Bank to raise interest rates with greater flexibility, without fear of causing financial ‘turmoil’, said ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Yields in the bond market are stabilizing across all issuers. The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note stands at 4.12%, while the yield on the 10-year note is at 4.39% (the yield on the 30-year note is at 4.87%). The yield on the Greek 10-year bond is at 3.525%.
The General Index fluctuated between 2,479.78 (+0.50%) and 2,461.73 points (-0.23%). At 5:00 p.m., it stood at 2,468.9 (+0.06%); during the final auctions, it hit a new low of 2,459.71 (-0.32%) and closed at 2,459.77 points, with daily losses of 0.31%.
Trading volume totaled 291.3 million, of which 25.8 million related to pre-arranged trades (OPTIMA, AKTR, MTLN, CENER, ALFA, DEI, ELPE, GEKTERNA, ADMIE, ETE, PIR, KRI, OTE, BELA), with ETE, PIR, and ALFA accounting for 38% of the total gross trading value.
Of the total turnover of 291.3 million, 268.7 million relate to trades in FTSE25 stocks.