Starting today, Ireland takes over the six-month presidency of the Council of the EU from Cyprus, and as Irish officials say, this time it’s not just a routine change of guard in Brussels, but a six-month period during which decisions that have remained on paper must be implemented.
Dublin is taking over at a time when Europe is facing nearly all of its major challenges simultaneously: the next seven-year budget, defense, Ukraine, the Middle East, enlargement, competitiveness, artificial intelligence, the protection of children online, and, in the background, the difficult balancing act with Washington and London.
On paper, the three priorities of the Irish presidency are clear: competitiveness, values, and security. In practice, however, the first major test will be where the EU will find the money to fund its needs.
The real negotiations over the coming months will center on the new Multiannual Financial Framework, the EU budget for the period 2028–2034. The Commission has put a proposal on the table amounting to around 2 trillion euros. Germany, even before Ireland assumed the presidency, made its red lines clear, calling for a reduction of approximately[PPA1] 400 billion euros and describing the proposal as unaffordable (link to the news article). Berlin’s move is seen as targeted and clear.
Ireland will be called upon to play the role of mediator, but the table at which it sits is not neutral. On one side are the net contributors, led by Germany, who do not want to see national contributions skyrocket.
On the other side are the countries fighting for cohesion, agricultural subsidies, regional development, and traditional EU policies. And in the midst of all this are the new demands: defense, Ukraine, technology, competitiveness, and energy security.
According to the framework already established in Brussels, Dublin will have until October to help clarify the difficult issue of the EU’s so-called “own resources.” That is, new sources of revenue that will not come directly from national budgets.
Ideas on the table range from emissions revenues and the carbon border adjustment mechanism to digital revenues, cryptocurrencies, online gambling, tobacco, and more.
It should be noted that reaching an agreement on the European budget requires unanimity. And unanimity—especially ahead of critical election years in major European countries—is never a technical process. It is a political bargaining process, involving trade-offs, gray areas, and countries that will attempt to buy time, particularly on the budgetary front.
Dublin, according to its official line, wants to show that it can lead the Union toward “strength through unity,” as the slogan of its six-month presidency states.
Security on the Agenda
With the war in Ukraine continuing, with Europe debating time and again how much it can rely on the U.S., with the Middle East and the Gulf remaining open sources of instability, and with defense having now moved from the margins to the very heart of the European agenda, negotiations are expected to be intense, even if they take place behind the scenes.
Enlargement
Ireland has stated that it wants to take an active role on the issue of candidate countries, with a particular focus on the Western Balkans, while also keeping Ukraine and Moldova on the European agenda. Behind the scenes, the question is well known: how much enlargement can a Union withstand when it has not yet decided how it will be funded, how it will defend itself, and how it will make decisions?
Ireland would like to position itself as a bridge, particularly with regard to the U.S., due to historical and political ties; with the United Kingdom, due to geography, Brexit, and its special relationship; and with the smaller EU countries, due to its size and experience.
Technology
Dublin is home to the European headquarters of many major technology conglomerates. While this is an economic strength for Ireland, for others in Europe it represents a political weakness. The debate over artificial intelligence, digital sovereignty, the protection of children online, and the enforcement of European rules against major platforms will put Ireland in an uncomfortable position: it will have to chair discussions on issues where it is viewed by many not merely as a stakeholder, but as a country with a particular dependence on Big Tech.
The Presidency will also have a strong domestic dimension for Ireland, a “proud” country that weathered the bailout programs without allowing the so-called troika to interfere in its internal affairs. Ireland decided on the measures, and the troika either approved them or requested a review. However, they never imposed them.
Now, the Irish press is already debating the additional costs the country will have to bear as the presidency, since it will host hundreds of meetings, informal ministerial gatherings, two summits of leaders, and a series of high-level events. While funding is provided from the EU budget, there are also additional expenses related to security, transportation, infrastructure, and police deployment.
Of course, the real question is whether Ireland can transition from its image as a small, flexible, pro-European country to the role of a presidency that keeps difficult dossiers open without letting them derail.
Cyprus did not seem to fare very well overall. It was merely going through the motions. However, at the national level, it managed to use its six-month presidency to move forward with signing agreements with major companies for the production of natural gas and hydrocarbons.