Goldman Sachs is raising the bar for the Athens Stock Exchange; in its new report on emerging markets, it sets a 12-month target of 2,600 points for the General Index, up from 2,500 points previously. With the index at 2,468 points at the time the report was written, the new target implies upside potential of about 5.3%.
The upgrade comes in a year when the Greek market has already delivered significant returns: since the beginning of 2026, the General Index has risen 14.6% in euro terms and 11.9% in dollar terms.
Attractive Valuation, “Generous” Dividends
The U.S. firm’s investment thesis for Greece rests on two pillars. The first is valuation: the Greek market is trading at a P/E ratio of 10.5 times estimated 12-month earnings, lower than the 11.3x average for emerging markets (MSCI EM) and less than half the multiples seen in markets such as Taiwan (21.4x) or India (20.3x). The P/B ratio stands at just 1.5 times book value.
The second pillar is the dividend yield, which is estimated at 4.8%—exactly double the emerging markets average (2.4%) and significantly higher than that of index heavyweights such as Taiwan (1.7%), India (1.5%), China (3.4%), and South Korea (0.8%), although it lags behind markets such as Indonesia (9.2%), Brazil (7.5%), or the Czech Republic (5.6%).
On the earnings front, the consensus projects earnings per share growth of 12% for both 2026 and 2027—a steady, double-digit rate that stands out in combination with the low valuation. It should be noted, however, that short-term earnings revisions are negative (-3.7% over one month and -3.1% over the quarter in local currency), while they remain positive over a 12-month horizon (+5.9%).
Greece’s Position on the Emerging Markets Map
In Goldman Sachs’ comparative table, Greece is included with a 0.5% weighting in the MSCI EM index—a small weighting, but with an attractive combination of low valuations and high dividends. For emerging markets as a whole, the firm sets a target of 2,000 points for the MSCI EM, up from 1,723 points today—representing an upside potential of approximately 16%, following an already impressive +25.6% gain since the start of the year in local currencies (+22.7% in dollar terms).
It is worth noting, however, that the upside potential the firm “forecasts” for Greece (+5.3%) is among the most modest in the table: for South Korea, the target implies a rise of over 40%; for China, approximately 23%; and for Taiwan, 13%; while, conversely, for markets such as the Czech Republic, Poland, or Peru, the targets are below current levels.