DEI’s technical picture aligns with the analysis of its fundamentals: The stock has a good chance of reaching higher price levels in the medium term:
Wave Analysis
PPC’s weekly chart shows a particularly clear five-wave upward structure (impulse wave) from the 2020 lows, a fact that reinforces the reliability of the metric and allows for the projection of targets based on classic Fibonacci ratios.
The first major wave (w1) completed in mid-2021 around the 11.00 euro level, followed by a corrective wave w2 that drove the stock down to approximately 4.76 euros by the end of 2022 —a deep but typical zigzag-style correction, within the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement range of w1.
From there, the third and strongest wave (w3) began, which internally breaks down into five subwaves (1-2-3-4-5): subwave 1 reached €11.00 (mid-2023), subwave 2 corrected to around 8.5 euros, subwave 3—the most dynamic part of the move—propelled the stock to 20.56 euros (early 2026), subwave 4 corrected to €16.28, and subwave 5 will complete w3 in the €27–29 range.
The current market phase is estimated to correspond to the completion of wave 5 of 3, before a sideways-downward wave 4 that will provide entry opportunities, after which the stock will move toward 35+ euros.
Using a Fibonacci extension projection (typically 0.618–1.0 times the length of w1 above the base of w4/start of w5), the technical target for wave w5 is set at 36.5–38 euros (36.78), a level that marks the completion of the five-wave uptrend that began in 2020. This level constitutes a realistic medium-term technical target, provided the structure remains above the previous support highs (the 16.28–20.48 euro range, former w3-3/w3-4 resistance).
From a risk management perspective, the w5 scenario would only be invalidated in the event of a clear close below the base of wave 4 of w3 (€16.28 range), which does not seem likely under current momentum conditions.
Fundamentals and Fair Value of the Stock
PPC is trading in the €23.70–24.00 per share range, with a market capitalization exceeding €13 billion. The 2026–2028 business plan calls for investments of over 10 billion euros, with an emphasis on renewable energy sources (a target of 12.7 GW of installed capacity by 2028) and distribution networks, while lignite’s contribution to profits will be virtually zero after 2026.
Market analysts have revised their estimates upward, with the consensus ranging from approximately €21 to €26 and a target EBITDA of over €2.9 billion for 2028 (+45% compared to 2025).
In terms of multiples, the stock is trading at approximately 6x 2026E EV/EBITDA, representing a discount of about 30% relative to European utility companies—a discount that several firms consider unjustified given the company’s earnings growth trajectory.
Based on the valuation model (DCF/RAB-based, incorporating the full renewable energy development program, the regulated asset base of the networks, and the free cash flow profile for 2026–2029), the fair value is determined at 47.4 euros per share.
This level is significantly higher than the current average market target price range (€21–26), suggesting that the market continues to value PPC primarily as a traditional utility company rather than fully as a renewable energy/grid development company with upside growth potential from data centers, international expansion, and discretionary capital expenditures.
This discrepancy essentially reflects a re-rating scenario that has not yet been fully priced in, with catalysts including a potential upgrade of the Greek market to “developed” status by MSCI/FTSE Russell/Stoxx by 2026, which could support “higher” valuations for blue-chip names such as PPC.
Positive Factors (Strengths)
● Strong EBITDA growth trajectory: target of over 2.9 billion euros in 2028, +45% compared to the 2025 target, with clear guidance from management.
● Portfolio transformation toward “clean” activities: approximately 85% of investments for 2026–2028 are directed toward renewable energy and networks, with lignite completely phased out of earnings after 2026.
● A stable, predictable contribution from regulated network operations (distribution/transmission), which provides a buffer during periods of energy price volatility.
● No new capital raising is required to finance the investment plan, as a large portion of capex is discretionary and can be adjusted according to the pace of implementation—a factor that enhances visibility into the investment pipeline.
● Significant valuation discount (approximately 30%) relative to European peers in terms of EV/EBITDA, leaving room for a re-rating.
● Potential upgrade of the Greek market by MSCI/FTSE Russell/Stoxx by 2026, with positive implications for capital inflows and valuation.
● New high-upside activities outside the core business plan (data centers, digital services, electric mobility), which have not been fully factored into market estimates.
● Dividend policy on an upward trajectory, with an estimated yield of approximately 5.3% in 2027 and an upward trend thereafter.
Challenges
● High investment cycle in the short term (peaking at approximately €3.45 billion in 2026), leading to negative free cash flows midway through the period before cash generation is restored.
● Net debt peaking at approximately 3.3x–3.5x EBITDA, requiring disciplined balance sheet management to maintain the investment grade rating.
● Sensitivity to regulatory/political risk (tariffs, energy cost support, network WACC), given the Greek government’s significant presence in the shareholder structure.
● Exposure to fluctuations in wholesale energy market prices and weather conditions (hydroelectric generation, photovoltaics), which affect the volatility of short-term results.
● Competition in Southeast European markets (Romania, Bulgaria, North Macedonia) and execution risk in implementing the ambitious 12.7 GW renewable energy program.
● Potential increase in financing costs in an environment of fluctuating interest rates, with a direct impact on the discount rate and, consequently, on the DCF valuation.
● Following the stock’s strong rally (to new all-time highs), there is a short-term risk of overbought conditions and a technical correction before the uptrend resumes.
Conclusion and Strategy
In summary, PPC presents an interesting picture:
- Technically: It is in a strong uptrend (Elliott Wave 5) with an immediate target of 33.84 euros.
- Base Case: €33.84 as the technical target. Long-Term Bullish Scenario: Gradual convergence toward the fair value of €47.40, provided the fundamentals are confirmed. The renewable energy transition strategy and strong market position are its main strengths.
- Risks: High debt and limited revenue growth are the main challenges.
Therefore, the combination of technical analysis (target of 33.84 euros) and fundamental analysis (€47.4) creates an attractive scenario, provided that the company manages to reduce its debt and maintain its profitability during the energy transition.
* The above article does not constitute an investment strategy recommendation regarding financial instruments or issuers of financial instruments and does not contain any opinion regarding the current or future value of financial instruments. The information and opinions in this article are provided for the reader’s information only.