Pantelakis Securities is upgrading its valuation of ElvalHalcor, estimating that the investment program totaling over 850 million euros for the period 2026–2030 will transform the group’s prospects and lead to a significant increase in profitability and cash flows.
The brokerage firm is raising its price target to 6.50 euros from 4.65 euros, seeing upside potential of approximately 31% from current levels, while estimating that adjusted EBITDA will rise from 236 million euros in 2025 to approximately 454 million euros by 2031, within management’s guidance range of 425–475 million euros.
The improvement in profitability is driven by three key factors: an increase in production capacity of approximately 29%, significantly greater use of recycled scrap—which reduces production costs—and better utilization of existing investments through economies of scale.
Pantelakis notes that the recently announced €250 million capital increase covers the equity portion of the investment program, allowing ElvalHalcor to finance its growth without placing an excessive burden on its balance sheet.
At the same time, the company anticipates that, upon completion of the investment cycle, free cash flow will strengthen significantly, creating the conditions for attractive returns to shareholders, with an estimated free cash flow yield of approximately 9% and a dividend yield of 4.4% for the 2030–2031 period.
According to the brokerage firm, the market continues to value ElvalHalcor based on its previous profile, without having fully factored in the momentum of the new growth cycle.