ND-GOVERNMENT: There were quite a few this year, commentators and non-commentators alike, who criticized the well-known “marriage market” of the TIF. For the old-party atmosphere, the various “pull mour” -intertwined and non-intertwined- and generally for situations of a certain… decline.
Our own sources, however, who returned with fresh analytical briefings, were not impressed by such phenomena. They have spotted them many times in the past as well, with this and with other governments. Other were the (more political) phenomena that made an impression on them.
To begin with, that despite the large package of benefits, with a horizon even of… coming years, the expected “pulse” was missing from this last pre-election TIF on the side of the governing camp. Not only from government and party officials, but also from its people.
A role in this appears to be played by the rifts that have opened at the top of the camp. The gap with Antonis Samaras is now public and unbridgeable, while the distancing of Kostas Karamanlis is also evident, as he continues to have very great reach in Northern Greece and especially in Thessaloniki.
But another feeling was also widespread: that certain top government officials, although publicly swearing loyalty to the current leadership, are moving with in the back of their minds not so much the next elections, as the possible… next day in the leadership of the camp.
Something that those “seasoned” in blue backstage politics discerned both in the individual programs of these officials for the days of the TIF, and in certain interesting timing… coincidences with appearances by the leader.
One of them, of course, also had bulletproof justification to shine through his... absence.
ND-GOVERNMENT II: A characteristic example of the camp’s undercurrents was given to us by one of our informants from the ONNED event last Friday at ARK.
The prime minister arrived without particular fanfare and without fervent displays by supporters on the street, to honor the party’s youth wing.
Shortly after his departure, however, the prime ministerial nephew and former secretary general of Maximos, the “ordinary citizen” Grigoris Dimitriadis, arrived.
And only a… demonstration did not take place for his reception.
So warm was it that some old and “seasoned” New Democracy supporters, who commented anything but positively on the incident, considered it somewhat difficult that it was entirely… spontaneous.
Returning to Athens, some tried to explain the general numbness by invoking the situation in Northern Greece: the distancing of Karamanlis, the strength of Velopoulos’ Greek Solution, the Karystianou party and of course, the looming Samaras party.
All of the above have fragmented the traditional audience to the right of and around ND, putting quite a few of its regional officials in an obviously more defensive mood. Except that the “undercurrents” no longer seem to be limited to Northern Greece.
Because how else is one to read the very good information that reached Chameleon, that a member of the government secretly organized in the height of summer, on an Ionian island, a dinner of various local and non-local figures, with the guest of honor being… Antonis Samaras?
Could they have been discussing only the... beaches?
ARABATZI: The ND MP for Serres remained “frozen stiff” on hearing a mayor from her area publicly praise, in front of her, her intra-party rival, Kostas Ach. Karamanlis, and ask for his return to the blue ballots!
It must have been some of the most awkward seconds of her life and certainly, when she was accompanying Makis Voridis on a tour of the prefecture, she could not possibly have imagined how it would develop.
“One more thing we want is for you to persuade Kostas Karamanlis to be a candidate. We want him here, we want him dynamically, we want him in the front line, to be on the ballots again…”, said the mayor of Nea Zichni, Pantelis Bozis, to the smiling former minister.
The awkwardness of Fotini Arabatzi was evident, since just when… one of her main fellow candidates for a seat in the next Parliament was neutralized (he has stated that he will not be a candidate), now some want to shuffle the deck again.
Let’s see…
FLORIDIS: “The longer one governs, one must face elections with humility and not arrogance”, Kyriakos Mitsotakis said at the press conference at the TIF, but quite a few of his officials do not seem to apply it.
Like, for example, the Minister of Justice, Giorgos Floridis, who, unlike some of his colleagues, is attempting, with… cheap rhetoric, to belittle the venture of Antonis Samaras before it has even taken shape.
“He is not doing it (i.e. the party) because he cannot do it so far. He does not have the people to do it”, he argued in an interview, speaking of “much ado about nothing”, as well as of “a tired story, which is attempting to revive a past in a Greece that is moving forward”.
According to the Minister of Justice, “we are now dealing all the time with something that does not exist. Let it finally happen. If it can happen and all this mythology”.
Excessive talk is a bad adviser and unfortunately, the once dignified representative of modernizing PASOK seems at some point to have gone off the rails…
P.S. “I will suggest to Mr. Samaras that he send flowers to Mr. Mitsotakis, because he is giving him free advertising”, declared for his part the former deputy foreign minister and close associate of the Messenian, Akis Gerontopoulos.
MITSOTAKIS: In Paris today, leaders and their representatives from dozens of countries around the planet will meet to discuss… Space. The relevant Conference is being organized by Emmanuel Macron, who has invited to the Grand Palais high-ranking figures from the fields of politics, business, science and technology.
According to French diplomatic sources, Space no longer concerns only satellites, launches and scientific research, but has become a strategic sector concerning defense, telecommunications, access to data, the climate and ultimately technological sovereignty.
The Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, will also be present, and will meet with the President of France and attend the dinner he will host at the Elysee Palace.
BANKS: After the updates of the financial calendars, the market knows that three out of the four systemic banks will distribute an interim dividend (Alpha, NBG, Eurobank).
It does not yet know the amount of the 2026 interim dividends, but it will learn that with the announcement of the third-quarter results.
What remains is the disclosure of intentions by Piraeus, which last year, instead of distributing an interim dividend in cash, proceeded with a buyback program with cancellation of shares.
CREDIABANK: The three valuation scenarios are included in the Jefferies report with which it initiates coverage of the bank.
Based on the current share price levels, the base target price of 1.30 euros gives upside potential of about 34%. In the positive scenario, however, the valuation rises to 1.60 euros, about 65% higher. In the negative one the price falls to 0.75 euros, with downside of about 23%.
Analysts note that CrediaBank’s downside is the second smallest among Greek banks, while the base upside is among the highest. Jefferies itself puts the risk/reward at 2.56 to 1, using as a basis the report’s reference price and comparing the positive with the negative scenario.
The figure has greater value when one looks at the assumptions of the bear case. In the negative scenario the house raises the cost of risk to 80 basis points from 30 basis points in the base case, the cost-to-income ratio to 49% from 45% and the cost of equity to 13% from 12%.
The ROTE on a capital-adjusted basis falls to 13%, versus 23% in the base scenario. Even with this package of clearly more adverse assumptions, the valuation comes to 0.75 euros. Theoretically, a good risk/reward ratio is the first thing sought.
At this moment Jefferies places CrediaBank’s share in a risk-reward that, on paper at least, is among the most attractive in the Greek banking sector.
BRIQ PROPERTIES: Large portfolios do not always make the difference. As appears from the REIC’s results published yesterday, size is not the only thing sought.
With a portfolio amounting to 296 million euros at the end of the first half, BriQ announced an interim dividend of 10 cents per share, totaling 4.8 million euros. This is an increase of 25% compared with last year’s interim dividend.
As regards the allocation of the portfolio’s value on 30.06.2026, it stands at logistics 35%, offices 26%, stores 23%, hotels 14% and other uses 2%.
A similar picture is seen in profits, which increased by 25%, to 6.8 million euros. More information on the REIC’s next steps is expected in the conference call scheduled for Friday.
BRIQ PROPERTIES II: The REIC reaped the benefits of active portfolio and balance sheet management.
The company did show rental income in the first half corresponding to last year’s (10.7 million euros, versus 10.9 million euros), having, however, sold eight properties in the second half of 2025. The loss of rental income due to sales was offset by amendments to existing contracts and annual readjustments.
With the proceeds from property sales being directed to debt reduction (i.e. it fell to 106 million euros) and the weighted average servicing cost declining (3.38%, versus 4.09% in the first half of 2025), financial expenses fell by 41% (1.8 million euros, versus 3 million euros), contributing to the increase in adjusted net profits.
The NAV per share amounted on June 30 to 3.87 euros (+4%)
REFINERIES: Investors and analysts are rushing to… catch up with the rally in the share prices of the two listed groups in the sector.
It is characteristic that Goldman Sachs hurried to proceed to a fourth revision of its target price for Helleniq Energy in just five months. The house’s latest report sets the bar at 17.8 euros as it forecasts high refining profit margins for a longer time horizon.
After yesterday’s +2.58% the stock has reached 16.68 euros and the return since the start of the war in the Middle East now approaches 90%.
Positive sign also for Motor Oil. The stock set a new record by climbing to 65 euros (+2.93%). In this specific case the gains reach 77.2%.
SARANTIS: The second quarter of this year proved slightly more difficult than analysts had expected for the Sarantis group, after a strong first quarter, also due to the inclusion of the Easter holiday.
Thus, first-half results came in either at the low end of the consensus range, or below it, with the deviation appearing mainly in profit margins.
Revenue amounted to 308 million euros (+1% year-on-year), in line with market estimates, adjusted EBITDA came to 48.5 million euros, with the relevant margin declining to 15.7% from 15.9%, and reported EBITDA to 47.7 million euros (-1%), slightly below market expectations, due to an extraordinary expense of 0.8 million euros related to the sale of the old Polipak factory.
(Adjusted) earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) amounted to 36.7 million euros (-2% year-on-year), while net profits came to 27.7 million euros (-5%), lower than analysts’ estimates.
The EBITDA margin fell to 15.7% from 15.9% in the first half of 2025, the operating margin to 11.9% from 12.3% and the net margin to 9% from 9.6%.
SARANTIS II: The difficult state of the economy in Romania, the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is keeping the market of the latter inactive, and the increase in raw materials pressured profit margins, especially in the second quarter.
Sales in Ukraine recorded, on an annual basis, a decline of 10% (i.e. 10 million euros) and in Romania by 4% (44 million euros).
Second-quarter EBITDA declined, on an annual basis, by 13% (25.2 million euros). The pressure from the rise in raw materials was even greater in the third quarter.
If the group did not pass on part of the higher cost from the supply chain to selling prices, it is possible, according to analysts, that it will be forced into a downward revision of full-year guidance. For the time being, management kept guidance stable.