Clearly bearish, the first session of the month and of the last stock market quarter, with the main indices of the ATHEX moving permanently in negative territory.
“If you don't know what to do, do nothing” says an old stock market saying and at the present stage, it may indeed reflect the feelings of the daily traders in the ATHEX.
Domestically, the announcements of first-half corporate results were completed and once again highlighted that the Greek Stock Exchange has several companies with cheap valuations, mainly in the lower capitalizations.
Abroad, the course of government bond yields continues to be a source of intense concern, as the “rentiers” are demanding an ever higher risk premium in order to buy sovereign debt.
Thus, the international markets entered the last quarter of the year, a period which, beyond the book-closing of institutional investors, this year also holds the U.S. midterm elections, while October is traditionally considered a month of “turbulence”. It is recalled that the crash of 1929, or of 1987, happened in October, 29/10 the first and 19/10 the second, and this creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of caution.
Beyond that, all the eyes of active investors remain focused on oil and on government bond yields, bringing back to the forefront the recent announcements by the IIF and S&P.
More specifically, global debt (public and private) rose to the historic record of $365.5 trillion in the first half of the year, according to the recent official "Global Debt Monitor" report of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), up by $10 trillion compared to the first quarter and amounting to 310% of global GDP, versus 305% in the first quarter.
It is noted for clarification that the IIF (Institute of International Finance) is the Global Association of the financial sector and works closely with international Organizations, but is an independent body and not a special department of the IMF.
The breakdown of global debt by sector was as follows:
- Public / Government debt: $110.5 trillion, with 1/3 of this concerning U.S. debt.
- Non-Financial Corporate Debt: $105.1 trillion.
- Financial Sector Debt: $84.3 trillion.
- Household Debt: $65.7 trillion.
“High debt levels, high interest rates, increased bond yields and increased borrowing costs constitute the new normal, which is not expected to change over at least the next two years,” S&P pointed out, warning of a much more difficult 2027.
Returning to the ATHEX, it is worth recalling that the General Index was coming from four consecutive rising sessions and yesterday's close found it at new 17-year highs, with the immediately higher close having been recorded on 26/10/2009 (2781.13 points) and the banking sector index at new 130-month highs, with the immediately higher close having been recorded on 11/11/2015 (3396.6 points).
It was therefore expected that today's start of trading on the ATHEX would be accompanied by a “convoy” of aggressive selling. In the first half hour of the “mini sell off” turnover reached 65.3 million (block trades at 20 million), while the first hour was completed with turnover of 98.7 million, of which 32.2 million concerned pre-agreed transactions, with trading activity easing relatively afterwards.
It is worth noting that at the initial lows, out of the total of large-cap stocks, only the BELA stock (+1.53%) was being saved with a positive sign and declining stocks were more than ten times the advancing ones, a ratio that improved afterwards, while the reaction of the European markets from the morning lows gave an opportunity for “emergence” also to the ATHEX, with the General Index claiming a close above the psychological threshold of 2700 points.
Everything changed after the Trump statement. More specifically, the U.S. President stated that “enhanced military attacks against Iran are possible after the November midterm elections, as his Administration is struggling to find an exit plan from a war that is now in its eighth month”.
The above statement brought Brent back above $100/barrel, the European markets retreated and the pullback was followed, with a tendency to underperform, by the General Index of the Greek Stock Exchange as well.
The surprise was kept by the potential sellers for the closing auctions, which closed the main indices of the ATHEX at the day's low, along with eight large-cap stocks.
Given today's market picture, it remains to be seen whether the rising sessions that preceded completed the mandatory placements of Foreign Funds and the ATHEX will now acquire a greater correlation with the European markets.
Meanwhile, according to the statement of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission and regarding net short positions exceeding 0.5%:
AKO Capital LLP remains with a net short position of 1.31857% in the MTLN stock, Qube Research & Technologies Limited with a net short position of 0.89324% in the ADMIE stock, a net short position of 0.50267% in the AKTR stock and a net short position of 0.79475% in the BYLOT stock.
As of 30/9, Qube Research & Technologies Limited reduced its net short position to 0.56261%, from 0.60215%, in the CREDIA stock.
With declining tendencies, but far from the morning lows, the major European markets, with active investors having their attention focused on oil, on the macro data being announced and on the government bond market.
More specifically, the yield on the U.S. 2-year note is climbing to 4.86%, that of the 10-year to 5.32%. The yield on the 30-year is at 5.67%. The yield on the Greek 10-year note is at 4.509%.
With the above data, it is only natural that all market eyes are focused on the next announcements by the central banks.
It is recalled that according to the economic calendar, the next meetings - announcements of the ECB are scheduled for 29/10 and 17/12/2026.
The corresponding ones of the Fed are scheduled for 28/10 and 9/12/2026.
The next scheduled monetary policy meetings of the BoJ are on 30/10 and 18/12 and of the BoE on 5/11 and 17/12.
The General Index moved permanently in negative territory, falling as low as 2677.58 points (-2.22%). At 17.00 it stood at 2687.09 (-1.87%) and completed trading at new lows and at 2669.72 points, with daily losses of 2.51%.
It should be noted that today's -2.51% of the GI is the largest daily decline of the last six months, with the immediately larger one having been recorded on 9/4 (-2.63%). Also for the -3.61% of the DTR, the immediately larger decline is found on 20/4 (-3.62%).
Turnover at 507 million, of which 101.5 million concerned pre-agreed transactions (OPTIMA, MTLN, BOCHGR, TRASTOR, PPC, OTE, EUROB, ETE, ALPHA, GEKTERNA, BELA, PPC, KRI, PEIR, ADMIE, ELPE, MOH), with EUROB, ETE and PEIR accounting for 51% of the total gross trading value.
In EUROB, 21.6% of turnover.
Of the total turnover of 507 million, 483.9 million concern transactions in FTSE 25 stocks.