Athens and Paris are trying to solve the difficult equation that will allow the restart of the surveys for the laying of the Greece-Cyprus cable, without it being clear, however, despite the backstage processes being conducted with the Turkish side, how close they are to the formula that would satisfy all parties, as also shown by the verbal escalation from Ankara.
The difficulty of the exercise was made as clear as possible by the announcement a few days ago by the Turkish Ministry of Defense that any cable- or pipeline-laying activity, as well as any survey on the "Turkish continental shelf", must be coordinated in advance with Turkey, setting new obstacles to the efforts being made behind the scenes by the French side, without this meaning that they have been interrupted.
At such a juncture, with Turkey's challenge to Greek sovereign rights remaining constant, but also amid an extremely fluid international landscape for American foreign policy, arriving tomorrow in Athens for the 6th round of the Strategic Dialogue between the two countries is the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio.
Although the visit shows the obvious American interest in the region and the strategic relationship of the US with Greece (it should be noted that it is not accompanied by a corresponding visit to Ankara, as American foreign ministers usually do), it is not clear to what extent it can affect the whole cable issue.
Although the Greek side expects a positioning from the head of the State Department on the importance of energy projects in the region, as well as a statement of support especially for those that contribute to interconnectivity, such as GREGY and GSI, it is obvious that this alone is not enough for the surveys for the cable off Kasos to unfreeze in practice, and not in words.
Backstage processes are intensifying
On this very GSI front, information insists that the backstage processes from the French side continue - and without it being clear whether they will bear fruit and when - they are “circling around”, perhaps with variations, always around the original plan.
Namely, the submission of the application for the issuance of a survey permit to Greece by Nexans (ed.: subcontractor of the GSI company, where the majority shareholder is Meridiam), with simultaneous notification of the Turkish side, without this meaning a request for the issuance of a permit from Ankara.
In such a case, after the issuance of a Greek NAVTEX, a corresponding one will follow from Turkey, which will claim that “the notification entails the granting of permission for the surveys”, whereas for the Greek-French side the simple notification will not constitute a request for licensing from another country. The scenario therefore refers to a “constructive ambiguity”, where each side will attempt to interpret developments as it sees fit.
“There is no issue of licensing by another country. The project is licensed by Greece and passes through the Greek continental shelf and a non-delimited EEZ. The notification of Turkey by the French company participating in the project's consortium does not constitute recognition of any Turkish right”, Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis said on Friday from his side.
However, the move a few days ago by the Turkish Ministry of Defense and the warning that it “will not allow any unauthorized activity on the Turkish continental shelf”, (as had been unilaterally recorded in a letter in 2020 to the United Nations), shows that the famous formula for the resumption of the surveys has not yet been found.
The vulnerable points
Precisely because Turkey considers that the area is “Turkish continental shelf”, it estimates that it has a say as a “coastal state” - it should be noted that it is not a contracting party to the Convention on the Law of the Sea - and rules out the scenarios that had seen the light of publicity about possible notification of the surveys to all states of the Eastern Mediterranean as an alternative solution.
But as people familiar with the matter also note, the above solution had vulnerable points from the outset, since the NAVTEX itself automatically entails the notification of the surveys by the coastal state (Greece), which also has the responsibility for issuing it. In other words, no special notification is needed.
And precisely because the notification submitted to the coastal state includes a full file with the characteristics of the vessel and its route, experts believe that Athens cannot accept the scenario of a similar notification to the Turkish authorities, as this would constitute an indirect acceptance of the illegal Turkey-Libya memorandum and an admission of co-management of the specific areas.
At this stage, while the formula that will unblock the surveys is still being sought for GSI, Turkey, in a show of strength, has already started new surveys, through the “Oruc Reis” (lasting until October 26), for the creation of the subsea pipeline that will transport natural gas from Turkey to the pseudo-state.
The issue brings to the fore a similar pursuit by Ankara, the intention to connect the occupied territories with an electricity cable. Last April, the attempt by the Turkish Cypriot leadership to push again the cable with Turkey, asking for it to receive a European seal, that is, to be included in the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), had received the official “no” from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E).
The occupied territories may not have the slightest legal standing, nor have they been recognized by any state other than Turkey, however the latter knows that as long as it keeps the plan alive and exploits opportunities, such as the many-month freeze of GSI, the chances increase that it will create faits accomplis, having already taken a first step in 2015, with the construction of a subsea pipeline for the transfer of water to the occupied territories.