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They are growing quickly, reducing unemployment and on paper are among the most promising economies in Europe. Greece and Spain, however, are facing intense social discontent, centered on high prices and housing.
There is a common denominator and it is worth looking at it.
In Athens, the draft budget for 2027 was submitted yesterday, with the government highlighting the strong performance and prospects of the Greek economy. On the same day, in Madrid, Pedro Sanchez called early elections for November 29.
Obviously, the political conditions are different. Kyriakos Mitsotakis has a parliamentary majority, while Sanchez governs through fragile alliances, without having managed to pass a new budget since 2023.
The rejection of his measures for the housing crisis was the pretext for resorting to the ballot box. A pretext that he obviously seized. Because the Spanish prime minister carries the wear and tear of eight years in government, corruption cases touching his circle, migration, Catalonia and a government that is now struggling to govern. With the elections he is trying to change the field: from the wear and tear of his government, to housing, to high prices and to the dilemma posed by the prospect of a PP-Vox government.
What is striking is that he is not heading to the polls with an economy in recession. Quite the opposite.
Spanish GDP has increased by about 15% since the end of 2021, the country is growing faster than most major European economies, creating jobs and reducing its public debt.
Theoretically, it should be a story of political success. Except that Spaniards do not live inside GDP. Housing prices rose by about 26% in two years, rents have become prohibitive for many young people, the housing crisis is bringing people into the streets and high prices continue to eat away at disposable income.
And this is the common denominator with Athens.
The Greek draft budget also describes an economy that is growing strongly, with unemployment and public debt declining and with new measures to support incomes.
At the same time, however, Eurostat estimates September inflation in Greece at 5.1%, up from 3.7% in August, compared with 3.8% in the eurozone. In Spain? 5%.
The figures of the Greek economy are positive and the government is entitled to highlight them. It is not entitled, however, to consider that they constitute by themselves an answer to high prices.
Because here we are not even talking about de-escalation. Inflation is accelerating. And it is accelerating on top of prices that had already risen in previous years and never returned to where they had been.
Milk, meat, electricity or rent do not become cheaper because GDP increases. Nor does growth pay the bill at the supermarket.
This is the dangerous point for any government that sees macroeconomic indicators improving: to start believing that because the numbers are prospering, those who produce them are prospering too.
Madrid reminds Athens of an old political truth: governments can prosper in Eurostat tables and wear down at the supermarket checkouts.
Sanchez may win or lose on November 29. Greece is not Spain and Mitsotakis is not in Sanchez's position. The message, however, travels just fine from Madrid to Athens. Good numbers acquire political value when they pass through the household's door.
Elections, in any case, are not held in Eurostat.