We initiate coverage of the AKTOR Group with a Buy recommendation, as the company is a leading player in the infrastructure and energy sectors in Greece, with a growing presence in Southeastern Europe (SE Europe), notes Ambrosia Capital in an analysis with which it begins coverage.
Our target price for the next 12 months, at 15 euros per share, implies an upside potential of 64%. AKTOR's new business plan charts its transformation into a fully integrated infrastructure and energy platform in SE Europe. We estimate that AKTOR will benefit from the following key points:
- The new strategy indicates the creation of a fully integrated leader in the infrastructure and energy sectors in SE Europe.
- LNG is emerging as a new growth driver.
- Construction remains the backbone of the new era.
AKTOR's strategic plan, presented in June 2026, aims to increase adjusted EBITDA from 207 million euros (pro forma for 2025) to 600-700 million euros and above in the long term, i.e., about a tripling, with the earnings mix shifting from about 24% to about 60% towards infrastructure-related activities, such as concessions, renewables, and LNG.
The investment program of capital expenditures (CapEx) amounting to 3 billion euros is directed 88% to these three sectors and is financed through a share capital increase of 650 million euros, with a long-term net leverage target of 3.5-4.0x.
Waste management adds another growth pillar, which has not yet been incorporated into forecasts: the acquisition of a 75% stake in Helector/Thalis, with an enterprise value (EV) of 300 million euros, adds about 40 million euros EBITDA for 2027 and a backlog of contracts of about 1 billion euros. The plan reflects management's ambition to create an integrated group with activities in five business sectors.
LNG constitutes a distinct new business area for the group. Contracted volumes amount to 1.5 billion cubic meters (bcm), destined for Albania and Bosnia with contract durations of 20 years, while an additional 4 bcm are under memorandum of understanding (MoU), with the total volume expected to reach 5-5.5 bcm by the end of the business plan.
These quantities can be fully served by existing infrastructure, namely Revythousa and the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) of Alexandroupolis.
AKTOR has agreed in principle to acquire a 50% stake in the FSRU floating station of Dioriga Gas, owned by Motor Oil, alongside the project for the combined cycle gas-fired power plant (CCGT) in Albania, worth 200 million euros.
This move signals the company's intention to shift from mediation and supply to infrastructure ownership, paving the way for contracted volumes above 4.5 bcm and for the higher profit margins that asset ownership entails, instead of simple trading through it. We consider this a source of potential upside not yet reflected in the valuation, in addition to the long-term EBITDA target of 80-120 million euros.
Construction represents the largest contribution to results, accounting for 68% of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 on a pro forma basis. Management targets long-term EBITDA of 200-250 million euros, compared to 141 million euros today, despite the fact that the sector's share in total profitability is expected to almost halve.
The group's backlog of contracts, amounting to 4.5 billion euros in June 2026—about 3.2 times 2025 actual revenues (25A) and about 2.6 times estimated 2026 revenues (26E)—as well as a market share of about 30% in Greece, support this outlook.
Added to this is the track record of rapid project execution and margin expansion, with the gross margin rising from 9% to 14% between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026.
Beyond its own profitability, the construction sector also acts as the group's executive arm, generating additional internal returns on invested capital (equity IRR) from concession and RES projects implemented within the group. In this way, it forms the financial base and the main risk mitigation mechanism in the group's diversification efforts.