The General Index was coming off two consecutive losing sessions, with cumulative losses of 4.4%, while the sectoral Banks Index had also posted two negative sessions, with total losses of 7.9%. Over the previous two days, the total market capitalisation of the Athens Exchange (ATHEX) fell by €7.6 billion.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that “the US is engaged in constructive talks with Iran and will not launch an attack against the country before the midterm Congressional elections in November,” leading to a marginal easing in oil prices.
This, combined with falling government bond yields across all European issuers, was interpreted by European stock markets as an opportunity for a rebound and notable gains.
With the main European markets posting gains, and following the losses previously recorded on the Athens Exchange, the overwhelming majority of domestic analysts had expected at least a technical rebound.
Instead, those following daily developments on the domestic trading floor witnessed a session characterised mainly by caution, a lack of meaningful initiatives from counterparties, a clearly lower turnover (the lowest of the past three sessions), and constant swings between gains and losses, with the session’s final outcome remaining in doubt until the close.
As a result, trading ended with the General Index at a new 2.5-month low, with the previous lowest close recorded on 29 July (2,540.06), and the sectoral Banks Index also at a 2.5-month low, with the previous lowest close on 29 July (2,937.64 points).
“No news” from mid- and small-cap stocks, except perhaps for a rebound in some shares that had recently hit multi-month or multi-year lows.
It is worth noting that on Monday, 12 October, barring further postponement, news is expected from two tenders being advanced by the government and the National Development Fund. These concern the issuance of new ID cards and the redevelopment of the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF), with a total value of €720 million, of which €515 million relates to the ID card project and the remaining €205 million to the TIF redevelopment.
On another note, according to the status report from the Hellenic Capital Market Commission regarding net short positions exceeding 0.5%:
Qube Research & Technologies Limited maintains a net short position of 0.79475% in BYLOT shares and 0.6012% in AKTR shares.
As of 8 October, Qube Research & Technologies Limited reduced its net short position in ADMIE from 0.89324% to 0.77143%, while increasing its net short position in CREDIA from 0.56261% to 0.61914%.
On the same date, AKO Capital LLP reduced its net short position in MTLN from 1.13407% to 1.05351%.
As previously mentioned, major European markets closed with positive signs and notable gains.
Turning to the bond market, the yield on the US 2-year note climbed to 4.81%, the 10-year to 5.27%, and the 30-year to 5.63%. The yield on the Greek 10-year bond fell to 4.40%, while the French equivalent stood at 4.85%.
“The risk of a new sovereign debt crisis in developed economies is resurfacing, as rising bond yields increase debt servicing costs and limit governments’ fiscal space,” notes The Economist.
“The yield on the 10-year US Treasury could climb to 6% for the first time since 2000, as high oil prices fuel inflation concerns and fears mount over the country’s rising public debt,” Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pimco, told the Financial Times.
According to analysts, “as in any market, bond yields are influenced by supply and demand. Bond yields recently reached 24-year highs, as inflation, monetary policy, fiscal deficits, corporate borrowing, and international bond markets all exert upward pressure. Fiscal deficits are expected to rise rather than fall, while the investment cycle in artificial intelligence shows no signs of peaking. The term premium—the extra yield investors demand for locking up their money for longer periods and taking on inflation, high public borrowing, and uncertainty risks—looks set to remain elevated. The massive debt accumulated at near-zero cost after years of QE and zero or negative rates must now be refinanced at much higher yields.”
It is also worth noting that, according to the economic calendar, the next ECB meetings and announcements are scheduled for 29 October and 17 December 2026.
The corresponding Fed meetings are scheduled for 28 October and 9 December 2026.
The next scheduled monetary policy meetings of the BoJ are on 30 October and 18 December, and for the BoE on 5 November and 17 December.
The General Index traded between 2,591.73 (+0.92%) and 2,555.21 points (-0.50%). At 17:00 it stood at 2,560.47 (-0.30%) and closed at 2,559.18 points, posting a daily loss of 0.35%.
Turnover was €355.5 million, of which €58.2 million related to pre-arranged trades (OPTIMA, QLCO, TITC, ALWN, NBG, EUROB, PEIR, ADMIE, ALFAM, NBG, PPC, MOH, BELA), with PEIR, NBG, EUROB, and ALPHA accounting for 57% of total gross transaction value.
Of the total turnover of €355.5 million, €340.6 million was in FTSE25 shares.
Today’s session was also the last of the week, which proved to be the second consecutive losing week, leaving the General Index with a weekly loss of 2.93%. Over the same period, the Banks Index lost 5.55%. Since the start of the year, the General Index is up 20.68% and the Banks Index up 29.09%.
Performance of Large Caps
Among the index-heavyweight bank stocks, CREDIA (+1.32%) was the only one to consistently trade in positive territory, while ALPHA (-1.14%), NBG (-1.2%), EUROBANK (-2.46%), PEIRAEUS (-1.27%), BOCHGR (+0.89%), and OPTIMA (-3.39%) all fluctuated between gains and losses.
The Banks Index moved between 3,041.74 (+1.28%) and 2,954.16 points (-1.64%). At 17:00 it stood at 2,968.29 (-1.16%) and closed at 2,961.13 points, with a daily loss of 1.4%.
The Banks Index gave a daily sell signal, which would be reversed with a return and close above 3,266 points. The next resistance is at 3,400 points. The next supports are at 2,769 (200-day exponential moving average) and 2,742 points (200-day simple moving average).
The final picture among non-bank blue chips was mixed, with the largest daily moves recorded by VIO (-3.04%), ELHA (-1.62%), CENER (-1.22%), AKTR (+6.24%), ALWN (+2.11%), MTLN (+1.59%), and EYDAP (+1.52%).
According to reporting by Stelios Bouras, “GEK TERNA is seeking to strengthen its presence in the defence sector through a new agreement with US-based Shield AI, which provides for the joint development of an industrial base and support infrastructure for the X-BAT in Greece. The X-BAT is an unmanned combat aircraft under development, utilising artificial intelligence technologies and capable of vertical take-off and landing, operating from ships, islands, or remote locations without the need for a runway. It will also be able to carry weapons systems. Under the agreement, GEK TERNA will act as Shield AI’s strategic partner in Greece.”
After four consecutive losing sessions and yesterday’s close at a five-month low, today GEK TERNA (-0.30%) attempted a rebound, but buyers quickly lost momentum. The share fell significantly from the intraday high of €41.34 (+2.12%), with the final outcome in doubt until the close, as sellers prevailed. The first resistance is at €44.3, while the technical picture will deteriorate significantly if the support zone of €39.43–€39.20 is lost (where the two 200-day moving averages converge).
According to an announcement from ALWN (+2.11% and five consecutive rising sessions), “the VALEA FOUNDATION, a legal entity closely associated with the following board members: Pavel Saroch, Non-Executive Member, Paul Schmid, Independent Non-Executive Member, on 6 October 2026 purchased 67,342 common shares of the company at an average price of €11.56 per share, for a total consideration of €778,485.17; on 7 October 2026 purchased 637,509 common shares at an average price of €11.58 per share, for a total of €7,385,006.74; and on 8 October 2026 purchased 290,301 common shares at an average price of €11.80 per share, for a total of €3,424,822.77.”
The MOH share (-0.51%) did not trade in positive territory at any point, while selling intensified following news of an explosion at the refinery facilities, with the share dropping as low as €62.9 (-7.64%) before attempting a rebound.
What Analysts Say
“Once again, the initial reaction to such a decline is selling. The 2,540 level prompted a rebound, bringing the General Index to 2,590, where sellers again outnumbered buyers,” according to Fast Finance S.A.
“Due to ongoing inflationary pressures and high oil prices, combined with renewed tensions in the Middle East and debt problems in France and the US, the General Index is expected to remain under pressure, though a technical recovery cannot be ruled out. Technically, as long as the Index remains below 2,600, the next support is in the 2,500–2,480 point range,” according to Beta Sec.
“Trump’s statements regarding negotiations with Iran have eased fears of a short-term escalation, while falling oil prices are boosting risk appetite,” notes Eurobank Equities.
“We believe investors will remain cautious due to ongoing market uncertainty,” states Piraeus Sec. in its own assessment.
“The Nasdaq technology index in the US posted increased losses amid negative news on artificial intelligence revenues. On the geopolitical front, Trump said there would be no US attacks until the midterm elections in November, resulting in European indices rising this morning. Regardless of whether a sustained rebound occurs, heightened volatility will accompany us in the period ahead,” according to Depolas Investment Services.
“The Athens General Index has a large downward ‘gap’ at 2,620 points, which now constitutes a strong resistance. The decline in oil prices offers some relief, but high bond yields keep the environment cautious. The duration of any potential rebound and the participation of more stocks will show whether the market can stabilise,” notes Kyklos Securities S.A.
“Second consecutive losing week for the General Index, which has lost about 200 points over seven sessions from the multi-year highs reached on 30 September. Excluding a few individual stocks, the market as a whole appears unable to mount a convincing rebound after a two-day ‘mini-sell off’, while external developments (geopolitical tensions, turmoil in the bond market, high energy prices, etc.) are causing concern and further weighing on investor sentiment. Next week sees the IPO of Capital Maritime Finance (CFM), while according to the schedule, trading on Euronext Athens is set to begin on 20 October, with the exchange gradually becoming a regional shipping hub. Technically, for the General Index, the next supports are at the 2,500-point level,” according to Merit Sec.
“After a long period of resilience in the face of existing and potential geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the Greek stock market has finally succumbed to external pressures, undergoing a sharp repricing of risk stemming from the multiple and ominous open fronts in the international environment,” notes Manos Chatzidakis.
The previously notable resilience in valuations has given way to increased caution, with investors reducing their exposure to equity risk.
The rise in energy prices, the climb in government bond yields, and escalating geopolitical tensions are creating a more adverse environment for equity valuations, limiting the scope for the domestic market to diverge from international trends.
In this already challenging environment, growing concern has also emerged over the ability of companies active in artificial intelligence to translate their massive investments into corresponding financial results and profitability in the short term. Doubts over the speed at which these investments will pay off are now testing one of the main pillars that supported the upward trajectory of global stock markets this year.
With the Greek market still ranking among the top European exchanges in terms of returns since the start of 2026, profit-taking remains a relatively easy option for portfolios invested since the beginning of the year.
At the same time, the domestic banking sector—a key reference point for market trends, sentiment, and investor interest—has now aligned with the performance of European banks, with some national banking indices posting weekly losses of around 4% as of Thursday’s close.
Domestic catalysts that could offer scope for differentiation are currently lacking, with the next significant news expected towards the end of the month, when third-quarter results begin to be announced.
As a result, the impact of international factors is expected to remain decisive through the end of October, setting the market’s main direction.
Abroad, the key event of the coming week is Wednesday’s release of US consumer and producer inflation data. At its last meeting in late September, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike in three years. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation remains excessively high, while markets are pricing in at least one more rate hike by year-end.
In this context, the inflation data take on particular significance, as they are expected to provide clues about the US central bank’s next moves.
At the same time, investor attention will turn to the start of third-quarter 2026 earnings announcements, with a particular focus on the banking sector.
On Tuesday, 13 October, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo will report results, along with Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group from the healthcare sector. On Wednesday, 14 October, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock follow, while Thursday, 15 October, features the results of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), which are keenly anticipated due to the company’s importance for the global semiconductor market and AI investments.
The results of the major US banks will provide the first indications of corporate profitability, credit expansion, and loan portfolio quality, at a time of heightened uncertainty over the outlook for the US economy.
Technically, the General Index completed a week of sharp fluctuations, confirming initial signs of a more intense correction. Tuesday’s rebound proved very short-lived, and after the clear break below 2,600 points, the General Index entered “uncharted territory”, with the next support found in the upward “gap” zone of 27 July between 2,495 and 2,507 points. At the same time, the break below the 2,600-point support on Thursday left a sizeable “gap” of 10 points (2,605–2,595), indicative of the intensity of selling.
This “gap” now constitutes the next resistance level, which has been “built” with turnover exceeding €600 million, making any immediate breakout a demanding prospect in terms of trading volume.
The breach of the two moving averages (30- and 50-day) does not bode well for immediate positive developments, as daily oscillators have not yet entered oversold zones that would support the prospect of a stronger rebound.
Moreover, the pattern of “decline on high volume—rebound on noticeably lower trading” does not support a robust trend reversal.
Under these conditions, the most favourable scenario for buyers would be a period of consolidation at current levels, allowing the market to absorb supply and gradually regain strength.
However, after six months of gains, control of the market appears to have shifted to sellers, who are likely to continue setting the trend in the coming week.
The highlight of next week’s agenda is the public offering of Capital Maritime, which will take place from Tuesday, 13 to Thursday, 15 October, aiming to raise approximately €250–€330 million for fleet expansion,” as Mr Chatzidakis (head of analysis at Beta Sec.) reminds us.