The airport’s shares are trading at €12.09, above the target price.
According to its analysis, revised earnings forecasts and a lower cost of equity support a higher valuation for the company, although the share’s recent gains limit its further upside.
Investment programme revised
The broker views positively AIA’s decision to review its 40MAP expansion plan, favouring a more phased and flexible approach. This takes into account stronger-than-expected passenger traffic, construction complexity and the need to adapt to an uncertain geopolitical environment.
A key point is that the next phase of development will prioritise work outside the existing main terminal, limiting the impact on commercial operations. As a result, management now expects non-aeronautical revenue per passenger to remain broadly stable during construction, rather than fall temporarily as the broker had previously forecast.
Once the expansion is complete, an increase of around 60% in commercial space is expected to create significant scope to boost revenue. However, the programme’s total cost is now estimated at around 30% above the original forecast of €1.3bn, in 2024 prices, mainly because of inflation in construction costs and tender bids. The €950m investment budget through 2030 therefore covers only part of the overall programme.
Higher earnings and passenger traffic forecasts
Following better-than-expected first-half performance, Eurobank Equities has upgraded its forecasts, taking into account resilient commercial revenue and stronger passenger traffic. In the first nine months of 2026, passenger numbers rose 4.3% year on year.
For 2026, the broker forecasts adjusted EBITDA of €401m and net profit of €206m, with the latter figure 3% higher than its previous estimate. It has also raised its net profit forecasts for 2027-2029 by 2%-3% and made modest increases to its estimates for dividends per share.
Over the longer term, it forecasts average annual net profit growth of around 5% over 2026-2035. Growth is expected to come from both regulated aviation activities, at around 3% a year, and non-aviation activities, where the corresponding rate is estimated at 7%. Factors expected to support commercial revenue include inflation, passenger growth, the expansion of commercial space and an improved revenue mix.
Eurobank Equities says AIA shares have shown notable resilience despite pressure on airport stocks worldwide. Since the start of the war in Iran, the shares have gained around 12%, while the sector has fallen by an average of more than 15%.
The broker attributes the sector’s weakness to rising bond yields, which particularly affect businesses with long-term, capital-intensive investments, as well as concerns about passenger traffic due to high oil prices and jet fuel refining margins, which are leading airlines to cut capacity.
By contrast, the broker’s estimates for AIA point to a 3.5% increase in offered seat capacity in the third quarter of 2026, compared with flat or falling capacity at several major European airports, including ADP, Heathrow, Gatwick and Frankfurt.
According to the analysis, demand for high-quality infrastructure, together with the Greek stock market’s move into developed markets, has helped reduce the share’s risk premium. Eurobank Equities cuts its cost of equity (COE) by around 80 basis points, lifting the target price to €11.60 alongside its upgraded earnings forecasts, based on discounted cash flow and dividend discount models (DCF/DDM).
The investment case for AIA continues to rest on inflation-protected regulated returns, attractive shareholder distributions, with an estimated dividend yield of around 6%, and growth prospects in commercial activities. However, the broker believes the share’s recent gains have already reflected these advantages to a significant extent, and maintains its Hold rating.