High shareholder distributions are one of the key pillars underpinning the positive medium-term outlook for Greek equities, according to a new strategy report from Alpha Finance - AXIA.
For the final quarter, analysts are becoming more cautious after the General Index rose 22.5% since the start of the year. However, they believe strong profitability, rapid earnings growth and generous payouts leave room for further gains.
The report includes a list of stocks with high dividend yields. Yields are calculated using prices on 13 October and include share buybacks.
Banks lead the way
At the top of the list is Bank of Cyprus, with a 9.2% yield for 2026. Analysts expect this to rise to 10.3% in 2027 and 10.6% in 2028, among the highest in Europe. The yield is supported by a large capital surplus: the CET1 ratio was about 21% in the second quarter. The bank has a 44% share of lending and a 39% share of deposits in Cyprus, and a low-cost deposit base. Higher interest rates are expected to boost net interest income.
The shares trade at the upper end of the range for Greek banks. Analysts believe, however, that the bank’s profitability and returns justify an even higher valuation, and set a price target of €12.30, compared with the current price of €10.36.
National Bank of Greece follows with a 7.6% yield, also supported by strong profitability and high capital buffers. Piraeus offers 5.8%, with dividends expected to grow broadly in line with earnings. Eurobank (5.7%) and Alpha Bank (5.4%) have scope to increase payouts faster than earnings.
The Athens Exchange banking index is up 32.6% this year, compared with 11.7% for its European counterpart. Banks have been the biggest beneficiaries of inflows linked to Greece’s upgrade to developed-market status. Analysts expect the trend to continue ahead of MSCI’s reclassification in May 2027.
Jumbo, Allwyn and energy
Outside the banking sector, Jumbo stands out with a dividend yield of 8.8%. The shares are down 10% this year, but remain among the top picks, with a price target of €32.70 against a current price of €25.80. Analysts forecast free cash flow of about €0.9bn cumulatively over 2026-2028. Combined with its substantial net cash position, this should ensure dividends remain high. The group owns more than 70% of its stores.
Allwyn offers a 7.8% yield, with management committed to distributing more than €1 per share.
Motor Oil and HELLENiQ Energy offer yields of 6%-8%. They are the year’s two biggest gainers, up 113% and 121%, respectively. Higher refining margins could mean higher profits. New activities are also supporting Motor Oil, while the next catalyst for HELLENiQ is hydrocarbon exploration and production.
PPC has a lower yield this year, at 3.5%. However, it has provided specific dividend guidance for every year through 2030: the dividend per share will reach €1.40, with average annual growth of 18.5% over 2025-2030. Analysts forecast net profit of €1.44bn in 2030. Net debt will remain below 3.5 times EBITDA. The price target is €29.10.
IPTO (3.1%) offers highly visible earnings protected from inflation. Its regulated asset base is expected to grow by 22% a year through 2029.
Ports, airport and property
Athens International Airport offers a 6.1% yield. Its profitability is supported by strong tourism and largely secured through the concession agreement. Thessaloniki Port Authority (6%) and Piraeus Port Authority (4.9%) are benefiting from increased trade flows and tourism. Travel receipts rose 12.3% in the first half to €8.6bn.
In the property sector, Trade Estates offers a 6.8% yield from its portfolio of retail parks and logistics assets. BriQ Properties offers 6.5% from a diversified portfolio.
The broader positive backdrop
The Greek stock market trades at 11 times forward 12-month earnings. This represents a 20%-30% discount to peer markets and about 20% to pre-crisis levels. About 8 points of this year’s gains are attributable to upward revisions to earnings estimates.
The economy remains resilient:
- GDP is expected to grow by 2% this year and 2.3% in 2027, above the eurozone rate.
- Unemployment fell to 7.4% in August.
- The primary surplus is forecast at 3.6% of GDP.
- Debt is expected to fall by more than 17 percentage points in two years, to 128.8% of GDP in 2027.
- Early repayments of about €12.8bn are planned for 2026.
- The country’s credit ratings are improving.
- The manufacturing PMI remains in expansion territory and economic sentiment is above its benchmark average.
Meanwhile, average daily trading value reached €357m in the first nine months, more than double the 2024 level. Integration into Euronext and the entry of Greek shipping companies are boosting institutional investor interest.
For the quarter through to year-end, Alpha Finance - AXIA recommends a more defensive stance. It nevertheless views any correction as an opportunity to invest, with high dividend yields acting as a “cushion”.