CENTRAL BANKS: A central bank governor faces the threat of being referred to a special court, his country’s government is accused of trying to control monetary policy, and Christine Lagarde is confronted with a highly sensitive institutional issue.
All this is happening in Poland, where the pro-European government of Donald Tusk is seeking to bring central bank governor Adam Glapiński before the courts. He is associated with the previous government of the right-wing PiS.
The charges include indirectly financing the deficit through securities purchases during the pandemic without the required approval of the Monetary Policy Committee, and breaching the central bank’s political neutrality.
Glapiński denies the charges, while the parliamentary committee responsible recommended on 9 October that he be referred to court, without even asking him to testify!
The vote in parliament is expected in the coming weeks
The paradox is that the main charge concerns bond purchases on the secondary market, at a time when similar quantitative easing programmes were being implemented across the West, including the eurozone.
Of course, the line between quantitative easing and state financing has also been examined by courts in the eurozone. The legality of a monetary policy is one thing; compliance with the procedures required by law is another.
But this is where things get... difficult.
Under Polish law, referral also entails the suspension of the governor’s duties. The country’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled otherwise in 2024, but the government does not recognise the ruling.
CENTRAL BANKS II: For its part, the ECB has already pointed out that Polish legislation does not provide all the necessary safeguards for the independence of the governor.
Lagarde had warned as far back as 2023 that an unlawful suspension of his duties could be challenged before the Court of Justice of the EU, since the Polish governor sits on the ECB’s General Council.
There is also a precedent. In 2019, the same Court overturned a measure barring Latvia’s central bank governor from carrying out his duties, following a challenge that also came from the ECB. He was later convicted of bribery at first instance.
All this is happening as government debt rises, bond yields climb and governments’ need for cheaper financing becomes ever more pressing.
The broader issue is that political interference in central banks’ operations does not appear to be the preserve of any one political camp.
In the US, Trump is seeking to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed, arguing that she failed to follow the procedure required by law. In Poland, the (pro-European) Tusk government is pushing for Glapiński’s referral to court.
The cases are different, and the charges must be considered separately. The question, however, is whether a clear distinction will be maintained between necessary accountability and political interference.
Central bank independence matters precisely when their decisions do not suit governments. And when that independence is challenged, as appears to be happening today, it is not just a banker’s credibility that is at risk.
Trust in the currency, government bonds and, ultimately, the economy itself may also be damaged.
ANDROULAKIS: Yesterday’s political event in Aigaleo was designed as a strong morale boost for the PASOK faithful, marking the anniversary of the party’s first election victory, led by Andreas Papandreou, on 18 October 1981.
And not just for party supporters, judging by the chant that greeted Nikos Androulakis as he entered the venue: “There he is, there he is, the prime minister.”
Mr Androulakis made no effort to spare current and former prime ministers Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Alexis Tsipras, seeking to present his party — and himself — as the force for renewal and the only option for political change.
Without naming them, he made it unmistakably clear who he meant: “Greece needs neither a third term of arrogance nor a second chance for failure,” he said.
At another point, focusing more squarely on his main political rival on the progressive side, Mr Tsipras, he added, referring to the removal of the former US ambassador to Athens: “Some people wag their finger at those who rushed to have their picture taken with Guilfoyle, but they hide their own picture with her deep in their desk drawer.”
In this case, contacts at the Hellenic Police point out that being photographed with Kimberly at receptions or events is not the same as having a formal photograph taken with her at an official meeting.
The remark was therefore judged “sweeping and venomous” — and does little to conceal the unabated acrimony in Nikos’s attacks on Alexis...
SYRIZA: The party is entering a new phase of introspection (another one, that is…) after Pavlos Polakis called for an internal election to choose its leader.
On Saturday, exactly what we had predicted on Friday came to pass: his proposal was voted down by a majority of the Central Committee, after Rena Dourou and Nikos Pappas opposed it. The former argued that collective leadership was better than having a single elected president; the latter said a leadership election would turn the party inwards.
The party statute, of course, makes no mention of collective leadership and clearly stipulates that a new president must be elected when the previous one resigns or is removed. But that will probably be settled at the next congress — whenever it is held.
What is striking is that Polakis’s proposal was rejected by 52 “no” votes to 30 “yes” votes, with four blank ballots. That means only 86 members of the body took part in the vote, while the other 84 abstained.
That is hardly good news for the much-discussed unity of this embattled (once-governing) party, which is now waiting for Pavlos’s “answer”...
INTESA-GENERALI: The Italian groups Intesa Sanpaolo and Generali have maintained an exclusive bancassurance partnership for years. Intesa owns 3.13% of Generali, but could raise its stake to close to 17% if its bid for Monte dei Paschi di Siena is accepted. Monte dei Paschi owns 13.35% of Assicurazioni Generali through Mediobanca.
A key milestone is Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s (MPS) extraordinary general meeting on 29 October, where MPS is due to consider bids to acquire Banca Generali and Banco BPM, which would allow Intesa to withdraw its takeover offer.
Approval of an acquisition plan requires a qualified majority under the articles of association (two-thirds of shareholders). On the current numbers, this is considered difficult, since MPS’s largest shareholder, Delfin, with 17.6%, and the Caltagirone group, with 13.5%, have come out against management’s proposal.
If Intesa’s plan ultimately succeeds and it gains control of MPS, it would, among other things, acquire an indirect stake of around 16.5% in the parent company of the Generali group. It would therefore also gain an indirect stake in Generali’s wholly owned subsidiaries, such as Generali Hellas.
In this context, Intesa was required to seek approval from local regulators for a possible acquisition of an indirect qualifying holding of up to 20%. It did so for Generali Hellas, submitting a request to the Bank of Greece, which was approved.
Approval from the Bank of Greece does not mean that Intesa has acquired an indirect qualifying holding in Generali, as some reports suggest. To do so, it must first gain control of MPS, as noted above.
TITAN: The market is eagerly awaiting Titan America’s third-quarter results, focusing on whether demand for cement for homebuilding has strengthened. Company and group management said during the second-quarter results call that demand was expected to recover in the second half, but rising energy costs and building material prices may have held it back.
The exception is Florida. The start of cement supplies from subsidiaries in Egypt and Turkey, together with the completion of extensive maintenance work at the Pennsuco production plant, may have supported margins.
ALLWYN: The listed company will use part of its treasury shareholding to run its dividend reinvestment programme. As is known, the company’s board has decided to distribute an interim dividend of €0.20 per share from current-year profits.
As is customary, shareholders will be able to reinvest some or all of their dividend. The interim dividend entitlement has a record date of 22 October, with the shares going ex-dividend on 21 October.
The election period for reinvestment opens on 23 October and closes on 5 November. The difference from the usual practice is that no new shares will be issued. Instead, part of the treasury stock will be used (excluding shares bought under the buyback programme, which began on 9 July and was completed a few days ago), to provide some support for the free float, which has declined as a result of repeated buyback programmes and purchases by the largest shareholder.
On 15 October, excluding 44.8 million treasury shares, KKCG held 79.8% of Allwyn’s share capital, while 20.2% was in free float.
The issue price (the reference share price) will be the volume-weighted average share price over the following five trading sessions: from Tuesday 27 October to Tuesday 3 November.
Shares issued following the exercise of reinvestment rights will be credited to beneficiaries’ accounts on 12 November, the date interim dividend payments begin.
ADMIE: The Operator’s shares surged on Friday, rising 5.6% to €4.52 on higher trading volume, after trending downwards since the start of the summer from highs of €4.90.
The catalyst for the stock was the more defensive stance adopted by Alpha Finance – Axia in its approach to the market, removing Eurobank from its list of top picks and adding ADMIE.
In its analysis, the brokerage highlights the share’s defensive qualities as a regulated monopoly, adding that the asset base is expected to more than double, from €3.1bn in 2025 to €7bn in 2029.
It also identifies the Greece–Cyprus cable as a potential catalyst, along with the inclusion of the North Aegean and Dodecanese interconnectors on the European list of energy infrastructure Projects of Mutual Interest, bringing European support and more favourable financing terms.
AKTOR: Euroxx expects Aktor to deliver strong growth across all its key financial metrics over 2026-2031. Its forecasts underpin an “overweight” rating and a €15.3 target price, implying 61% upside from the last closing price of €9.60.
According to the brokerage’s forecasts, group revenue is expected to rise from €1.57bn this year to €2.49bn in 2027 and reach €4.58bn in 2031, almost three times as much.
Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to follow a similar trajectory, rising from €236m this year to €617m in 2030 and €686m in 2031, an average annual growth rate of 24%.
The profit outlook is even more striking. Net profit is forecast to surge from €31m in 2026 to €255m in 2031, more than eightfold, while earnings per share rise from €0.12 to €0.98. Return on equity improves from 4.5% to 15.4%.
This growth is underpinned by investments of around €3bn in concessions, public-private partnerships and energy, while the P/E ratio falls from 79 times this year to 9.7 times in 2031.