Libya: Defeat, delusions and Gerapetritis — Piraeus’s Q3 signal — Prodea, BriQ move on dividends

Turmoil in the southern Mediterranean, with Ankara’s help. Papastavrou’s absence and frequent trips. GEK Terna’s international debut, Piraeus’s optimism and dividends from property companies.

Libya: Defeat, delusions and Gerapetritis — Piraeus’s Q3 signal — Prodea, BriQ move on dividends
Εικόνα με χρήση τεχνητής νοημοσύνης (AI generated image)

This article is an AI translation of an original piece published in Greek. Read original

LIBYA: The decision by eastern Libya’s parliament to ratify the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum is a major diplomatic defeat for Greece. The development certainly does not make the agreement legal, but it gives Ankara another diplomatic weapon in its efforts to enforce its claims in the eastern Mediterranean.

At the same time, it lays bare the optimistic assessments of Greek diplomacy, which appears to have been taken completely by surprise. In September 2025, Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis described Greece’s efforts in Libya as “entirely successful so far”, adding that there were no signs the memorandum would be ratified in the near future.

More recently, on 15 June 2026, when Saddam Haftar, son of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, visited Athens for high-level meetings with Mitsotakis and Gerapetritis, the much-cited “diplomatic sources” spoke of an “especially satisfactory relationship” with eastern Libya.

Four months later, that especially satisfactory relationship did indeed bear fruit. Only Turkey reaped it, though! The diplomatic bombshell that has just exploded also came at the right time (for… Turkey), as it is linked to the long-troubled Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnector, the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI).

Turkey is demanding that it be granted a permit for the survey work due to resume (probably next month), citing the Turkish-Libyan memorandum. Today’s decision by the Libyan parliament does not change international law.

But it strengthens Ankara’s political position at a time when the Greek government is being called on to prove in practice that it can advance a strategic energy project in the face of Turkish objections.

 

LIBYA II: It was inevitable that the development would immediately provoke strong reactions from the opposition, given that we are also in an election period. Antonis Samaras again called for Gerapetritis to be dismissed, while PASOK, in a joint statement by Mantzou and Maniatis, said the development contradicted the government’s assurances, and the Greek Solution called it a failure of Mitsotakis’s foreign policy.

But there is also a broader reality we should not overlook. It was probably quixotic for Athens to expect that lukewarm European support and a handful of diplomatic visits could effectively counter Turkish influence in Libya. Ankara has invested militarily, politically and economically in the country for years, first backing the government in Tripoli and then building close ties with the Haftar family as well.

Yesterday showed that Turkey can influence developments in both western and eastern Libya, and that major international powers are right to regard it as the dominant player in the country. That is the broader “lesson”. In the shifting sands of North Africa and the Middle East, domestic power dynamics, religious and cultural differences and conflicting interests create an exceptionally complex environment.

Today’s friends may find themselves in the opposing camp tomorrow, while yesterday’s enemies may become close partners. Diplomacy therefore calls for fewer triumphal claims, greater foresight and, above all, a realistic assessment of the actual balance of power.

Anyone who confuses warm handshakes and temporary agreements with strategic commitments risks being caught off guard by unpleasant surprises. That is exactly what has happened in Libya.

PS: As early as 4 June 2025, in a comment titled “Foreign policy: On the brink of a (major) crisis”, Chameleon warned that eastern Libya might accept the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, pointing to Ankara’s growing influence even on the Haftar side. Let’s hope the rest of what we wrote then proves wrong…

 

PARLIAMENT: The absence of the minister responsible, Stavros Papastavrou, prompted discussion during a meeting of parliament’s Committee on Institutions and Transparency on renewing the terms of the leadership of HEREMA. The appointments in question were those of chief executive Aristofanis Stefatos and chairman Ricard Skoufias of the Hellenic Hydrocarbons and Energy Resources Management Company, whose terms were renewed for a further six years.

Environment and Energy Deputy Minister Nikos Tsafos presented the ministry’s position at yesterday’s meeting, as the minister was away on a trip to Patmos and Leros to inaugurate local water-supply projects, according to the ministry’s announcement. 

“Where is Mr Papastavrou?” asked Georgia Kefala, a rapporteur for the Course of Freedom party, wondering what could have been so important that he could not attend a discussion on energy security and hydrocarbons.

It is a subject particularly close to his brief, given his many trips to the US and numerous meetings with the heads of Chevron and ExxonMobil. Rapporteurs from other parties raised similar questions, the column understands.

 

PARLIAMENT II: The discussion, which naturally widened to cover the government’s overall energy policy, heated up when SYRIZA MP and former minister Pavlos Polakis took the floor.

“You are the destroyer of the lignite regions, an agent of foreign interests and the American LNG delivery boy,” the blunt-spoken Cretan told Deputy Minister Nikos Tsafos, setting out his own plan for the country’s energy future: bring back lignite and halt renewables, since, he said, we do not need any more. Some should therefore be transferred to local authorities in return for compensation.

“I was interested to hear Mr Polakis propose that we nationalise renewables,” the deputy minister replied, also pointing to the inconsistency between Polakis’s plan and the policy of the SYRIZA government.

“Under SYRIZA, electricity generation from lignite fell by 50% and the use of natural gas doubled,” he reminded him.

The deputy minister made another point. Asked why offshore wind projects had been “frozen”, he cited a significant increase in the cost of the technology, which has slowed investment worldwide.

He stressed that the government did not want to repeat the mistake made 15 years ago, when the government of the day subsidised solar panels that were extremely expensive at the time.

A valid observation, but with one addition. The block on the “offshore wind” chapter began, for unknown reasons, in January 2025, at the Foreign Ministry...

 

BAKOYANNIS: Following Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Dora Bakoyannis has also set the New Democracy election threshold at 25%.

“If New Democracy fails to get 25% and does not receive the bonus, will the prime minister not take responsibility? Of course he will,” the former minister said, before adding:

“What is the prime minister? Is he glued to a chair, saying, ‘It’s me, and nobody else’? No. So far, Mitsotakis is the only one winning, and there are party leaders who did not leave even with 18%,” she said, in a clear dig at Antonis Samaras.

She also commented on the Messinian’s remarks about the cost of living and taxation: “What he said lacks seriousness. If we find the person who can open the Strait of Hormuz and stop the war in Ukraine, that person could tackle the cost of living. Until then, anyone saying otherwise is telling fairy tales,” she said.

 

DENDIAS: Defence Minister Nikos Dendias will recommend to the Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defence that the Greek Patriot battery in Saudi Arabia, where it protects oil facilities, remain there for longer.

He said Riyadh had met its financial obligations and that, during his recent visit, “any misunderstandings that had arisen were resolved”.

The government has officially decided to extend the Greek mission until the end of October, despite the Mecca mutual defence agreement signed in August by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan.

 

GEK TERNA: The listed company is heading to the markets today with its first international bond issue, worth €500 million and with a maturity of seven years. The book is expected to open today, Wednesday, with pricing and completion of the transaction scheduled for the same day, subject to market conditions.

The issue has already been presented to Greece’s institutional investment community, with more than 200 professional investors and market executives taking part, while the group’s management is holding international meetings with investors.

The bond will carry a fixed rate and be unsecured, with expected ratings of Baa3 from Moody’s and BBB- from S&P. The proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, and the bond is expected to be listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange.

 

REAL ESTATE: Domestic and foreign capital continues to invest in Greece’s property market, taking positions from Ellinikon to Marousi and from Kallithea to Chania.

The Polychroni-Koleti family is investing €846,000 in Ellinikon through the newly established Libytec Pharmaplant Single-Member SA. The new company, based on Vouliagmenis Avenue, is set up to buy and sell properties it owns.

Meanwhile, the Gioura family is investing €1.335 million in the share capital of newly established real estate company K90 Properties, in a key location in Marousi (Kifisias Avenue).

Foreign investors have joined in, too. Novera Holdings is taking a position in Kallithea, while Kalyves Beach Chania SA, based in Athens, is targeting tourism property in Crete.

 

PIRAEUS: Piraeus is forecasting strong operating performance in the third quarter of 2026, with management reiterating its full-year targets, according to an update ahead of the third-quarter results announcement.

Net interest income (NII) continued to grow in Q3, helped by both favourable interest-rate conditions and loan growth.

According to the bank’s management, credit expansion was at a level similar to the second quarter, keeping it on track to meet its annual target of increasing loans by more than €3 billion. Deposits also recorded inflows, while their cost remained under control.

Fee income is estimated to have remained satisfactory, but lower quarter on quarter, as the second quarter benefited from non-recurring items. By contrast, income from financial transactions is expected to be marginally negative because of market volatility.

The bank kept operating expenses within its forecasts. Meanwhile, gross written premiums at National Insurance came in above budget.

The cost of risk (CoR) is estimated to have risen, but remains in line with the revised annual guidance of 60 basis points. The bank’s capital position also remained on track to meet its target of a capital adequacy ratio of more than 13% at the end of 2026.

Finally, Q3 is expected to include a small one-off charge of less than €10 million related to corporate social responsibility (CSR).

 

METKA: METKA’s decision to distribute a dividend of €83 million to its sole shareholder, Metlen, from undistributed profits from previous years offers an opportunity to offset intra-group receivables and payables. The column reported the move yesterday.

METKA had extended a credit facility of up to €100 million, through a bond loan, to Mytilineos Financial Partners, a Metlen subsidiary. At 31 December 2025, the outstanding balance was €65.8 million and carried an interest rate of 4.5%.

If any balance remains outstanding, it may be offset against part of the dividend. METKA had no bank debt at 31 December 2025 and held cash of €167 million.

Cash flow from operating activities amounted to €82.5 million last year.

 

PRODEA: The listed company will distribute an interim dividend from its nine-month profits, kicking off the third-quarter results announcements. The REIC reported rental income of €15 million for the nine-month period, while total turnover reached €21.12 million.

In addition, the REIC recorded a gain of €29.5 million from the sale of Bulgarian company I&B Real Estate to the Eurobank group. Net profit after tax therefore came to €15.3 million.

During the nine-month period, Prodea used proceeds of €554 million from property, subsidiary and joint venture sales to distribute a €400 million dividend and reduce debt.

 

BRIQ: BriQ shareholders reaped the benefits of active portfolio and balance-sheet management in the first nine months of the current financial year.

The REIC reported a 4.2% decline in rental income (that is, €15.7 million), having sold eight properties in the second half of 2025.

With property sale proceeds used to reduce debt (that is, to €106.7 million at 30 September), financial expenses fell, helping the company post adjusted net profit of €9.7 million, up 17.8% on the same period last year.

Management is guiding for full-year profit above last year’s level and a higher dividend. Some 97.5% of its debt carries a fixed interest rate as a result of swap agreements.

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