Turkey-Libya deal: Erdogan devastated by... Ursula — Greek bank under US investigation — Tips on FRLK, EXAE

How analysts viewed Fourlis’ investor day. EXAE shares flirt with their highs again. A new war with pollsters over Maria of Tempi. A fresh request for a parliamentary inquiry.

Turkey-Libya deal: Erdogan devastated by... Ursula — Greek bank under US investigation — Tips on FRLK, EXAE

This article is an AI translation of an original piece published in Greek. Read original

ERDOGAN: Panic has reportedly gripped the palace of “Sultan” Erdogan, according to our… exclusive sources, after the European Union reacted in the strongest terms yesterday to the eastern Libyan parliament’s ratification of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum.

The Turkish president is, apparently, devastated and seriously considering scrapping the memorandum!

He simply cannot bear, it seems, to hear Ursula and EU President António Costa speak so badly of his country.

They said the agreement was “null and void”, violated the sovereign rights of third countries and was incompatible with the Law of the Sea.

In other words, exactly what the European Union has been saying since… 2019!

There was not a word about specific countermeasures, any political or economic cost for Ankara, or even the threat of sanctions.

And while Europeans have repeated the same verbal condemnations for seven years, Turkey has managed to turn even its opponents in eastern Libya into supporters of the memorandum. They rejected it in 2020 but have now approved it unanimously!

 

KALLAS: As for the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, she did not even deign to make a personal public statement on the issue the day before yesterday!

Yesterday, she finally deigned to refer, in passing, to a “violation of the sovereign rights of third countries” after meeting Hakan Fidan, in a post that immediately afterwards … pivots to the Black Sea and the Caucasus!  

Later on Wednesday evening, she also issued an official statement on behalf of the “27” condemning the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, but without taking the… next step, such as imposing sanctions on the two countries.   

Clearly, the main focus of European foreign policy on her watch is Ukraine and “hated” Russia. Violations of EU member states’ sovereign rights in the Mediterranean apparently do not rank as highly.

Besides, Turkey is considered a valuable strategic partner of Europe, as Ms Kallas herself has acknowledged.

So let’s not upset our allies over a few… maritime zones!

What is even more infuriating is that the EU already has a sanctions mechanism in place for illegal Turkish drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean, which it has extended until November 2026.

Only the list of individuals subject to sanctions is empty! 

A fine example of European… resolve.

And the best part? Here in Athens, where we have by now grown used to treating verbal European support as something close to a diplomatic triumph, some were quick to present yesterday’s statement as significant backing for the country.

We do not dispute the importance of the EU’s legal position. But nor can we ignore the fact that Ankara is going from success to success in Libya, while Brussels confines itself to recycling the same condemnatory statements.

And we are celebrating?

PS: One positive, in fairness: Egypt, Libya’s neighbour (though it has interests of its own in the same maritime area), rejected the Libyan House of Representatives’ decision to ratify the memorandum, noting that the ratification has no legal effect on Egypt. 

 

GERAPETRITIS: The foreign minister also responded to a fresh, fierce attack on him by Antonis Samaras, just hours after the bad news from Libya became public. The former prime minister, he argued, “is driven by a profound intolerance”.

Independent MP Marios Salmas takes the opposite view of the Messinian, and appears ready to join Mr Samaras’ new venture. In an interview with Flash 99.4, he said he would remain in politics and had spoken with the former prime minister. “When he announces the party, I’ll tell you what I’m going to do too. I say this because, since the former prime minister, Mr Samaras, has made a strategic choice not to announce the party yet, no one should jump the gun,” he said.

And the stand-off between the two sides continues, even before the… birth.

 

PASOK: Nikos Androulakis followed the well-trodden path to swell PASOK’s parliamentary group by one member (again): yesterday he welcomed Myrto Korovesis, a former SYRIZA MP, then a member of Kasselakis’ former party, and later an independent, after she had attended a political event featuring the same speaker.

Ms Korovesis made her presence felt at his speech in Aigaleo last Sunday, marking the anniversary of PASOK’s first election victory under Andreas Papandreou in 1981. Yesterday, she became the 36th member of the “green” parliamentary group.

The same happened with Alexandros Avlonitis (who had followed exactly the same party path), who attended Androulakis’ speech at the Thessaloniki International Fair before switching parties; and with Evangelos Apostolakis, who attended the president’s other anniversary speech, in Crete, on 3 September, and so on.

Now we await Nina Kasimati joining PASOK (also a former SYRIZA member). It remains to be seen whether the same pattern will be followed or whether the announcement will come without her having first attended a speech by the party leader.

For the record, Ms Korovesis was sworn in as MP for Eastern Attica as the second alternate in the summer, after Giorgos Karameros gave up his seat (he has already joined the Hellenic Police) and Christos Spirtzis declined to take it.

PS: As for Theodora Tzakri, the silence continues, because there is strong and widespread opposition within the party to her return to the fold…)


PARLIAMENT: Parliament’s parties will once again have to do the numbers after SYRIZA submitted a proposal yesterday to set up an inquiry committee to investigate the framework and handling of “non-performing loans”, as well as the state guarantees under the “Hercules” programme.

According to Koumoundourou, the Constitution gives the minority the right to request an inquiry committee, provided the proposal is approved by at least 120 MPs.

For that to happen in this case, all the parties and half of the 50 independent MPs would have to vote “yes”. That means the entire opposition will be put to the test by its vote, whether for or against.

For now, no one knows whether or when the vote will be scheduled, as similar requests have in the past sat in a drawer for months before reaching the plenary.

Time is now pressing because of the unofficial pre-election period.

 

KARYSTIANOU: Maria of Tempi is taking on the polling companies. Shortly after GPO published its latest poll (for iefimerida), which put “Hope for Democracy” outside parliament, at 2.2% in voting intention and 2.6% in the vote estimate, the party’s press office issued a scathing statement:

“Your war is at its peak. Maria Karystianou is a thorn in your side. All polling companies that publish bogus figures will be held to account the day after the election. We promise you!”, the statement said.

We await the next polls…

 

BANKS-US: A name that has never been disclosed is the talk of the market right now. FinCEN’s announcement that it is investigating a Greek bank over possible links to Tehran as part of “Economic Outcast” did not identify the group involved.

FinCEN (the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) is an agency of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Its mission is to combat money laundering, terrorist financing and other financial crimes.

According to reports circulating late last night, the US investigation is said to concern a small, unlisted credit institution with extensive dealings in the shipping industry. 

 

LAMDA DEVELOPMENT: Qube Research & Technologies has taken a short position in the listed company. It was announced that the fund had opened a 0.50226% position, just above the disclosure threshold.

The shares have traded around €6–€6.50 for months, with the company’s valuation stuck near €1bn, while its NAV exceeds €8.80 per share.

 

FOURLIS: Management presented its transformation plan at the investor day the day before yesterday. The strategic direction looks reasonable to us.

Management aims to leverage shared services, a unified digital infrastructure, supply-chain integration and disciplined network expansion to capture economies of scale across its IKEA, INTERSPORT and Foot Locker businesses, Eurobank Equities comments.

Importantly, the presentation gave a clearer picture of the operational initiatives underpinning the recovery in profit margins, rather than simply repeating ambitious targets.

However, the path outlined effectively puts the business in 2029 at the level we had previously expected it to reach by 2027: EBIT of €40m-€45m and an EBIT margin of 5.1%-5.6%, the brokerage says.

In addition, while earnings are expected to recover from their low point in 2026, meaningful underlying free cash flow (FCF) generation remains largely a 2028-29 story.

In light of the above, Eurobank Equities considers the strategy to be moving in the right direction, but believes the company’s investment case will depend increasingly on management’s ability to deliver tangible productivity gains and convert more earnings into cash.

PS: The shares edged lower yesterday, closing at €3.94. They are marginally down over 30 days (-1.87%), while their losses over six months are close to 20%.

 

EXAE: The shares rallied strongly yesterday, flirting once again with their record highs of €11.30.

Euronext Athens shares ended the session up 8.11% at €11.20. They are among the market’s strongest performers this year, with gains of more than 77%.

Buyers are betting on higher trading activity, anticipating even stronger nine-month results after profits doubled and revenue rose by more than 50% in the first half.

 

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