EUROBANK-NII: Eurobank management has made a second upward revision to its annual target for net interest income (NII), following its third-quarter performance.
The bank’s chief executive, Fokion Karavias, raised his guidance for NII growth to 9% from 7%. Net interest income came to €719.3 million in the third quarter, beating consensus (around €705 million) and rising 5% quarter on quarter from €685 million in the second quarter.
The forecast for 9% growth in net interest income looks conservative, as it assumes fourth-quarter performance will be unchanged from the third quarter.
The updated full-year target (set at the end of July) for €4.5 billion in credit expansion also looks conservative. In the first nine months, the group increased performing loans by €3.8 billion, including €1.1 billion in the third quarter (€0.5 billion in Greece).
Banks have guided the market to expect a stronger fourth quarter. For 2027, Eurobank management said a slowdown in the particularly high rate of credit expansion recorded in 2025-26 was possible, while reiterating its view that performing loan growth would continue over the medium term.
EUROBANK-ACQUISITIONS: The bank announced an interim dividend of €214 million, equivalent to almost 6 cents a share (5.99 cents) and 27% higher than last year’s distribution.
Management clarified, however, that despite stronger profitability (RoTE of 16.9% in the first nine months, against a full-year target of 17%), the payout ratio would remain at 55%. The full consolidation of Eurolife AEAZ reduces CET1 by around 120 basis points (14.3% as at 30 September on a pro forma basis), and the bank wants to maintain a “buffer” for potential M&A moves.
It made clear, however, that no deals were under discussion at this stage. Asked about a possible acquisition of an insurer in Bulgaria, it said this remained a target, but nothing was on the table for now.
BANKS: The decline in margins (the spread) charged by banks on corporate lending is within the expected range. From January to September, Eurobank’s average spread on corporate lending fell by around 17 basis points and is expected to narrow by 20 basis points over the full year.
This confirms the forecasts made by corporate lending executives at the start of the year for a modest decline in spreads. The slight pressure from narrower margins is more than offset by improved margins on deposits.
According to Eurobank CFO Charis Kokologiannis, deposit margins widened by 46 basis points in the first nine months. The net interest margin is therefore “rising”, with Greek banks among Europe’s leaders by this measure.
EUROBANK-SWISS FRANC: More than 70% of Eurobank borrowers with Swiss franc clauses had taken part in the government scheme, Mr Karavias said. The scheme allowed loans to be converted into euros at a fixed interest rate, with a “haircut” of 15% to 50% on the amount owed.
The figures cover Eurobank customers who had completed the conversion by the end of September. Some applications had not been completed, which explains the misunderstanding over conversion rates of around 85%.
For those who applied but did not complete the conversion, banks are informally offering the same terms. There is a stock of accumulated provisions available.
LAGARDE I: “When there are big clouds on the horizon, the captain does not abandon ship. And this captain is not going to abandon it because she sees clouds.”
That is what Christine Lagarde said on 14 April, explaining to Bloomberg why she had no intention of leaving the European Central Bank early.
The weather has not changed; if anything, it appears to have worsened. But the political calculations seem to have changed. Yesterday it was announced that the captain would be leaving the ship on 7 February 2027, almost nine months before her term ends.
The energy crisis, inflationary pressures, rising bond yields and France’s fiscal position make for a backdrop far more threatening than the one in April.
She said, however, that her desire to have freedom of speech had weighed in her decision, allowing her to speak out on issues beyond monetary policy.
That is not a particularly convincing explanation for the sudden change of tack, which seems to be mainly about who will decide the ECB’s future.
LAGARDE II: With France’s presidential election approaching and Marine Le Pen vying for power as something of a favourite, Lagarde’s early departure serves a highly specific purpose.
It would give Emmanuel Macron time to have a decisive say in choosing the next ECB president, before the political balance in Paris changes.
After all, the new ECB president may be called on to manage even a French debt crisis, so this is certainly no ordinary “changing of the guard”, particularly for France.
The possibility of Lagarde running for the French presidency, which has been widely discussed in the media, seems extremely remote. The prospect of her standing as a prime ministerial candidate alongside Edouard Philippe also looks remote. Both have an entirely technocratic “profile”, making it difficult for the pair to broaden their electoral appeal.
By contrast, the World Economic Forum in Davos looks like the likeliest next stop. Reuters has reported that she could be chosen as its new president as soon as November.
Lagarde could thus take on an international role, earn a very generous salary and intervene in politics at home from a position of prestige — at least with some audiences — without having to test herself at the ballot box.
PARLIAMENT: A vote that will be difficult for both the government and the opposition is due in the plenary of parliament in November. It concerns SYRIZA’s proposal to set up an inquiry committee to investigate private debt, non-performing loans and the operations of funds and servicers.
Only 120 votes in favour are needed for the request to pass. The Constitution gives the opposition the right to secure the establishment of an inquiry committee with a minority vote twice during each parliamentary term. (This power has already been used for Tempi.)
That is why Koumoundourou planned the move: to pressure — or expose — the other opposition parties over how they vote, and at a time that is unofficially already an election period.
Even if all the parties back the request, however, it will also need the support of half of the 48 independent MPs. Around ten of them were elected with SYRIZA and later left the party to join ELAS. And, we hear, Koumoundourou is especially keen to expose them before they have a chance to resign and hand back their seats...
Unless those who have decided to resign get there first, in which case the pressure will shift to the MPs sworn in to replace them, who may then declare themselves independent, refusing to join SYRIZA, whose candidate lists they had stood on.
PARLIAMENT II: If that seems far-fetched, here is confirmation of the prediction this column made a few days ago: SYRIZA MP for Aetolia-Acarnania Miltos Zambaras, who went independent in July, announced yesterday that he was resigning and handing his seat to the next candidate on the list, Giorgos Varemenos. Mr Varemenos will accept the seat, but immediately declare himself independent.
That is because he was among the party figures who left SYRIZA after Kasselakis was elected and joined New Left, which was left without a parliamentary group after its own split in the spring. So Mr Zambaras is heading “unencumbered” to Alexis Tsipras’s ELAS, but instead of increasing SYRIZA’s number of MPs, the pool of independents remains unchanged.
Let’s have an election and put an end to these unprecedented comings and goings...
P.S. Incidentally, former MP Katerina Notopoulou, who handed back her seat in the summer, and Mariliza Xenogiannakopoulou, who was not elected in 2023, joined ELAS yesterday. We will have to wait and see what comes of it.
GEROULANOS: Pavlos Geroulanos was in combative opposition form yesterday, prompted by Adonis Georgiadis’s remark that, as a government, “we now need to show determination and who is boss” in tackling major problems.
“Where have you been all this time, boss?” Mr Geroulanos replied, explaining: “You have been in government for 2,670 days now. Where were you when the monopolies you left unchecked brought me to my knees? Where were you when one farmer took another farmer’s subsidy?
Where have you been all these years while we have been hearing about basketball? Or the big tax evaders you have only just remembered? Where were you with the trains, when so many lives had to be lost before you woke up? Or in healthcare, where a famous fellow citizen had to die before you started carrying out inspections? And the answer to all of this is “nowhere”.
After that list, the conclusion from the PASOK parliamentary spokesman came as a rhetorical question: “Why does the government’s “we’re laying down rules” convince no one?”
GEORGIADIS: The health minister clashed (as usual...) with Pavlos Polakis over the much-discussed private clinics or “wellness” centres. The SYRIZA MP cited revelations following the death of Giorgos Mazonakis about the methods they use, such as plasmapheresis, and accused Mr Georgiadis of promoting one of these centres in the southern suburbs by visiting it.
The minister replied that he had never promoted that particular clinic, and tempers soon flared: “Wellness medicine is an internationally recognised field, and Greece will not be denied these services because Mr Polakis disagrees. No barbarian, illiterate ignoramus like him is going to do as he pleases in Greece,” he said.
“Mr Georgiadis, our degrees are not comparable. For you to call me uneducated is a joke you’d hear at Lidl, or I don’t know where,” the Cretan replied. He stuck to his central accusation that wellness therapies and the like “are a fraud carried out by uneducated, illiterate charlatans and quacks who pretend to be scientists.”
Mr Georgiadis, however, pointed to the law-drafting committee set up with scientists from Harvard, the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens and the University of West Attica, to draw up rules for the practice of wellness medicine. We shall see.
ALPHA BANK: Eurobank Equities forecasts net profit of €242 million for the bank in the third quarter of 2026, up 31% year on year, ahead of the results announcement today.
The brokerage’s estimate is around 4% above the market consensus, driven mainly by further growth in net interest income and underlying fee income, as well as cost containment.
Net interest income is expected to come in at €452 million, up 4% quarter on quarter, while fees are forecast at €156 million, up 6% excluding the Prodea dividend booked in the second quarter. Recurring operating expenses are forecast at €241 million.
The decline in profits from the previous quarter reflects the absence of one-off gains and the expected €25 million cost of the donation.
Based on Eurobank Equities’ estimates, the bank needs to earn just €211 million in the fourth quarter to meet its full-year target of €950 million, leaving room to beat it.
PIRAEUS: Eurobank Equities forecasts net profit of €312 million for the bank in the third quarter of 2026, ahead of its results announcement today. That would represent a 20% increase year on year and a 7% decline quarter on quarter, close to the market consensus of €310 million.
The brokerage expects profitability to be supported by growth in net interest income, resilient fee income and a modest normalisation in costs. Core pre-provision income (core PPI) is estimated at €521 million, around 2% above consensus.
Lower income from financial transactions and higher provisions will act as a counterweight. The decline in profits from the second quarter is attributed mainly to the normalisation of exceptionally high fee income and a positive trading result.
Eurobank Equities believes a simple upgrade to 2026 targets may have a limited effect on the share price. Investors will focus mainly on signs that the bank can exceed expectations already priced in, and on stronger capital generation after distributions to shareholders.
OTE: Axia-Alpha Finance expects the group to report positive financial results for the third quarter of 2026, with its performance in the first nine months set to allow it to maintain its full-year target of around 3% growth in adjusted EBITDA after leases (EBITDAaL).
The brokerage forecasts revenue of €878.9 million for the third quarter, with results due today, up 0.6% year on year and 2.7% quarter on quarter. Adjusted EBITDAaL is expected to reach €370.9 million, up 3% year on year and 8% from the second quarter.
Net profit after minority interests is forecast at €171.7 million, while adjusted net profit is estimated at €174.1 million, up 2.4% year on year. For the first nine months as a whole, Axia-Alpha Finance expects revenue of €2.594 billion, up 1.8%, and adjusted EBITDAaL of €1.053 billion, up 3%.
Net profit after minority interests is expected to fall by 21.2% to €454.9 million, while adjusted net profit is forecast at €480.4 million, up 2.2%.
Operationally, quarterly performance is expected to be supported by the relative stability of retail fixed-line revenue, continued growth in mobile service revenue and strong growth in other revenue, including information and communications technology (ICT) projects.
Wholesale services, by contrast, are expected to remain affected by the gradual phase-out of international transit traffic with a zero profit margin. The brokerage expects management to leave its 2026 guidance unchanged.
Specifically, it forecasts underlying free cash flow of €570-580 million, reported free cash flow of around €750 million and capital expenditure of €600 million.