Value plays on the Greek stock market

Where value lies on the market and where the future is already priced in. The biggest discounts among blue chips, the picture at the banks and how dividend yields are changing the story.

Value plays on the Greek stock market

This article is an AI translation of an original piece published in Greek. Read original

The Greek stock market may have shed its reputation as a “cheap” market on many fronts, but the picture is uneven.

A relative valuation by Beta Securities, based on closing prices on 29 October and FactSet consensus estimates, shows that a number of blue chips continue to trade at significant discounts to their European and international peers. At the same time, other stocks have risen so far that they now command a premium.

Value opportunities

Jumbo stands out as the cheapest stock in the sample on a valuation basis. It trades at a 2026 P/E of 11.4x, compared with 19.3x for international retail groups — a 41% discount. The picture is confirmed by the EV/EBITDA ratio (6.9x versus 11.7x, a 42% discount), while its P/BV stands at 2.1x versus 3.3x.

Its strongest selling point, however, is the return to shareholders. The estimated 2026 dividend yield is 4.41%, compared with just 1.20% for peers, while the group also has net cash. The shares are slightly lower year to date (down 2.6%), although they have gained 11.9% over the past quarter.

OTE trades at a 2026 P/E of 11.4x, compared with 14.3x for European telecoms companies — a 21% discount. The gap on an EV/EBITDA basis is 15% (5.3x versus 6.2x). Its forecast dividend yield is 5.29%, 69 basis points above the sector average.

The biggest difference is on the balance sheet: OTE’s net debt is equivalent to 0.2 times EBITDA, compared with 2.4 times for its European competitors. Its P/BV premium (4.4x versus 2.1x) reflects high profitability and share buybacks, rather than an expensive valuation. The shares are up 10.1% year to date.

Aegean Airlines trades at a 2026 P/E of 9.6x, compared with 14.2x for European airlines — a 33% discount. Its estimated dividend yield of 6.27% is three times the sector average (2.02%), a difference of 426 basis points.

The shares are down 23.4% year to date, weighed down by pressure on airlines from the surge in jet fuel prices. 

Titan trades at a P/E of 11.1x, compared with 15.4x for the global cement sector — a 28% discount that remains steady through 2028. On an EV/EBITDA basis, the discount is 22% (6.7x versus 8.6x). Its estimated dividend yield of 2.51% is marginally above those of comparable companies abroad, while the shares are down 9.9% year to date.

The biggest valuation gaps in the sample are in consumer goods. Papoutsanis trades at a P/E of 11.6x and Sarantis at 13.5x, compared with 23.6x for international groups in the sector. The respective discounts are 51% and 43%.

Papoutsanis offers a dividend yield of 3.44% and Sarantis 2.9%, with the latter holding net cash. Both shares, however, remain down year to date, by 13.1% and 14.2%, respectively.

PPC trades at an 11% premium on a 2026 P/E basis (19.5x versus 17.6x). The picture reverses on the other metrics: the P/BV discount is 45% (1.4x versus 2.5x) and the EV/EBITDA discount is 37% (6.4x versus 10.3x). Based on earnings forecasts, the P/E premium disappears in 2027 and becomes a 10% discount in 2028, while the dividend yield rises to 5.13%. The shares are up 28.5% year to date.

The banks

The four systemic banks now trade at a weighted-average 2026 P/E of 10.7x, exactly in line with European banks. The discount has effectively closed on earnings and remains only on tangible book value: P/TBV of 1.6x versus 2.0x, a 22% discount.

Alpha Bank has the largest P/TBV discount (37%), while Piraeus remains the top performer, up 47.3% year to date. The sector as a whole is up 32.3%, compared with 5.2% for European banks.

Refiners 

Helleniq Energy and Motor Oil trade at P/E ratios of 5.2x and 5.6x, a 14% discount to European refiners. Their dividend yields are 5%. The two shares, however, have nearly doubled year to date (up 112.6% and 108.3%), while the 2028 P/E estimate of 9.2x suggests the market expects refining margins to normalise.

At the other end of the market, Kri Kri trades at a P/E of 26.5x, a 53% premium to international food groups, after gaining 78.7% year to date. Lamda Development trades at a 2027 P/E of 24.9x, a 121% premium, although it is below book value (P/BV of 0.7x).

Coca-Cola HBC commands an 18% premium on P/E (19x versus 16.2x) and an 88% premium on P/BV. Cenergy trades at a 9% discount on P/E but a 43% premium on P/BV, after gaining 50.3%.

Allwyn trades at a 16% premium but offers the highest dividend yield in the sample (7.6%), after falling 37.9% this year.

Finally, Athens International Airport trades at an 11% premium, offset by a 5.11% dividend yield.

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