Coca-Cola HBC expects slightly higher inflation in the cost of sales in 2027 and has already secured coverage for more than 40% of its key raw material requirements for next year. Despite higher energy and raw material costs, management is optimistic about continued growth in revenue and operating profitability, underpinned by pricing, higher sales volumes and cost-saving initiatives.
This was said during the conference call on the nine-month results, which concluded earlier on Wednesday morning.
“We expect cost-of-sales inflation to be slightly higher in 2027 than in 2026,” management said, referring to pressures from key raw materials such as sugar, aluminium and PET. The company continues to draw on long-term supplier agreements, hedging tools and productivity initiatives, while its ability to hedge energy costs is limited in some European markets. For 2027, the hedging ratio stands slightly above 40% and is expected to rise by the end of the year.
For 2027, management said it would be reasonable to assume revenue growth of 6%-7%, with a more balanced contribution from sales volumes, pricing and product mix, unlike in 2026, when growth was driven mainly by volumes. In the third quarter, organic revenue per case rose by 3.4%, with pricing accounting for about three-quarters of the contribution from price and product mix, according to management. Some of the positive impact was offset by an adverse geographic mix, as Nigeria and Egypt, markets with lower revenue per case, recorded strong growth.
“Pricing is an active lever for revenue growth and will continue to play that role in the future,” management said. This year, Coca-Cola HBC has raised the upper end of its revenue guidance while leaving unchanged its target for organic EBIT growth of 8%-10%. The decision to maintain its profitability guidance reflects pressure from the conflict in the Middle East and energy costs, supply-chain disruptions in Ukraine, as well as four fewer selling days in December.
For 2027, management declined to give a specific outlook for profit margins, despite its medium-term target of expanding the EBIT margin by 20-40 basis points.
Investment in AI, cash flows and the CCDA acquisition
As part of its digital transformation, Coca-Cola HBC plans to roll out the Ignite Niger model in other markets. The programme, which combines data from Coca-Cola HBC and The Coca-Cola Company for Revenue Growth Management, has moved from pilot to full implementation in Nigeria, covering all customers. “What we are doing in Nigeria can be applied across the rest of Africa and beyond,” chief executive Zoran Bogdanovic said.
On the acquisition of CCDA, management reiterated that it expects a positive, low-single-digit percentage impact on earnings per share (EPS) in the first year after completion of the transaction, with no change to its initial estimates. “We are not yet the owners of CCDA, so we cannot comment on its financial performance,” it said, confirming that its estimate of the acquisition’s contribution to EPS remains unchanged.
What is happening in Egypt, Ukraine and Romania
Among developed markets, management singled out Greece, which saw a significant acceleration in the third quarter compared with the second. In Italy, growth extended across almost the entire portfolio, while the recovery in Switzerland was attributed to improved consumer confidence. Across developed markets as a whole, management expects low-single-digit volume growth in 2027 as well.
Expectations remain strong for Nigeria, where 2026 is expected to mark the sixth consecutive year of market-share gains. Management also expressed optimism about Egypt, where the company is regaining market share.
By contrast, Romania is facing pressure on consumption due to regulatory and political factors, while in Bulgaria, sluggish demand is partly linked to the transition to the euro. “There are some markets where the need for affordability is more pronounced and consumer demand is weaker,” the group’s chief executive said.
In Ukraine, sales volumes fell by 20% in the third quarter, as an intensification of air strikes since early September affected production, transport and the operation of sales outlets. The company has activated contingency plans, supplying the market with imports from other countries, and expects activities to be gradually restored over the coming weeks or months. Management said the impact has already been factored into its 2026 forecasts.
In Poland, energy drink volumes grew at a low-double-digit rate, while carbonated soft drinks also recorded positive growth and the contribution from pricing and product mix improved. By contrast, the water category remains under pressure, with management not clarifying whether this is structurally linked to the packaging deposit-return scheme.