Markets for Coca-Cola HBC are moving at different speeds, with Nigeria and Egypt leading growth, Greece accelerating in the third quarter and Romania facing pressure on consumption. This is shaping the backdrop for 2027, when the group expects volumes, pricing and product mix to make a more balanced contribution to revenue, despite higher costs.
On the conference call on its nine-month results, chief executive Zoran Bogdanovic struck an optimistic note on Nigeria, where 2026 is expected to be the sixth consecutive year of market share gains.
The performance has been supported by celebrations marking 75 years of Coca-Cola in the country, as well as commercial initiatives linked to sporting and music events and the consumption of soft drinks with food. New initiatives are planned for next year in partnership with The Coca-Cola Company.
Expectations are also positive for Egypt, despite a high comparison base, with market share recovering in recent months and a focus on expanding distribution, new packaging and affordable pricing.
Meanwhile, Nigeria is serving as a test market for the Ignite Niger digital commercial model, which combines data from Coca-Cola HBC and The Coca-Cola Company. The programme now covers all customers in the country and, according to Bogdanovic, could be extended to other markets both in and outside Africa.
The group is increasing investment in data and artificial intelligence, aiming to manage revenue more effectively and plan commercial initiatives more efficiently.
European markets
In Europe, Greece improved significantly in the third quarter compared with the second, Zoran Bogdanovic said. Performance was also positive in Italy, Ireland and Austria, with management expecting sales volumes in developed markets to grow at a low single-digit rate in 2027 as well.
By contrast, Romania continues to face weak consumer demand because of regulatory and political factors. Similar pressure is being seen in Bulgaria, where management partly attributes subdued consumption to the introduction of the euro.
These differences highlight the challenge of setting prices in markets with varying levels of purchasing power. At the same time, faster growth in Nigeria and Egypt is increasing the contribution of countries with lower revenue per case, affecting the group’s geographic mix.
In the third quarter, organic revenue per case rose by 3.4%, with about 75% of the positive impact from pricing and product mix coming from price increases.
Cost pressures
For 2027, management referred to revenue growth of 6%-7%, following a year in which volumes were the main growth driver. The shift to a more balanced revenue mix will, however, take place in a more challenging cost environment.
Coca-Cola HBC expects cost of goods sold inflation to be slightly higher in 2027 than this year, when the increase is estimated at a low-to-mid single-digit percentage per case. This year, the group has fully hedged its key raw materials, while coverage for 2027 stands at about 40% and is expected to increase by year-end.
Sugar, aluminium, PET and energy remain key sources of pressure, while currency fluctuations add uncertainty in emerging markets.
Despite the challenges, management is confident it can further increase operating profit, drawing on pricing, supplier agreements and productivity initiatives. A specific forecast for 2027 profitability is expected with the full-year results in February.