From investments in renewables and batteries to the possible acquisition of an electricity provider and the new deals in LNG that will be accompanied by ship chartering, AKTOR’s business plan aspires to reshuffle the deck in the domestic energy market.
X-raying the main chapters of its business plan, from expansion into production through RES, to the move into electricity retail and the spread into LNG trading, everything suggests that we will see an intensification of competition in the energy game, but also possible partnerships.
In electricity retail for example, where the group currently has no presence, the plan outlined by Alexandros Exarchou for the acquisition of a Greek electricity provider will inevitably bring upheavals and changes in the balance. The goal is to create a new strong pole, with all that this entails for the battle over market shares.
By contrast, in the FSRU sector, that is, floating LNG storage and regasification units, where the undertaking is in itself difficult and very expensive, with costs of 500-600 million per unit and very fierce competition from Germany to the Baltic countries, everything indicates that we will see collaborations.
Information insists that AKTOR is in advanced discussions with a strong domestic player, which the group itself also confirms. The presentation to analysts speaks of an investment in the order of 190 million euros, stressing that a “joint venture with a strategic partner for the FSRU is being launched that will support the reduction of the project’s risk,” with the basic scenario providing for the booking of capacity in a new terminal without assuming operational responsibility.
It becomes clear that it does not seek to get involved in its construction and operation.
In the market it is an open secret that the group is in talks with one of the three players (or even with more than one) that are currently maturing FSRU plans. That is, Gastrade of the Copelouzos group, which is promoting a 2nd project in the Thracian Sea, Dioriga Gas of the Vardinogiannis group in Ag. Theodoroi, and Helleniq Energy, which always has in its portfolio a plan for a terminal in Thermaikos.
In reality, the group’s new business plan, totaling 3 billion euros, of which energy absorbs 43%, that is, 1.3-1.4 billion, includes only part of what the group’s head has announced over the past week.
The above chapters concern the new investments in renewables and batteries with an estimated budget of 1.1 billion euros in the coming years and the 200-300 million euros that will be invested in the LNG sector, as well as for participation in a new FSRU.
The chartering of ships for the transport of liquefied gas, which Mr. Exarchou spoke about yesterday during the presentation to analysts, has not been included, nor has the acquisition of an electricity provider and possibly other moves the group will make.
Taking into account the new business plan, what its head himself mentioned during Thursday’s interview, as well as what he said yesterday during the presentation to analysts, the group’s energy footprint foresees at least four fronts.
Expansion of LNG agreements beyond 4.5 bcm per year
The group estimates that by the end of the year it will have contracted LNG quantities equal to 4.5 billion cubic meters. The figure concerns the existing memorandums of cooperation with Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine (MoU), which it will seek to turn into binding agreements within 2026, as well as the plans for expansion into Hungary and North Macedonia, and the short-term contracts on the Vertical Corridor, which the management of Atlantic SEE had spoken about on Wednesday.
However, as Mr. Exarchou also told analysts yesterday, the figure of 4.5 bcm is conservative and he predicted that these quantities will increase significantly as new opportunities arise and new commercial agreements are completed.
Chartering of two LNG carriers
If the group secures gas quantities beyond 4.5 billion cubic meters, then it will proceed with the leasing of two transport ships (LNG carriers). The ships will remain permanently in Greece and will operate as floating natural gas storage units, enhancing the flexibility and security of supply of the new activity. At the present stage, the planning concerns exclusively the chartering of the ships and not their purchase.
Expansion in the renewable energy sources sector and in batteries
Within the year it intends to make acquisitions of parks with a capacity of 550 MW, with secured compensation tariffs, a fact that ensures predictable cash flows for it.
The next target is to increase the portfolio to 1.2 GW, with the management clarifying that every new acquisition must offer double-digit internal returns (IRR).
In Bulgaria it will proceed with the acquisition of batteries, thus offsetting the ever greater curtailments suffered by domestic renewable energy projects, for which Mr. Exarchou (and not only him) is increasingly often sounding the alarm over the risk of the emergence of a new generation of non-performing loans.
Acquisition of an electricity supply company
Today the company has no presence in retail. The group is planning the acquisition of a Greek supply company, so as to cover the entire chain, from production and storage, to electricity trading.
No further information has become known, however broader references had also been made by its head last December, at an event at the Athens Stock Exchange, on the occasion of the start of trading of the company’s 104 million euro bond loan.
The implementation of the above will be financed with the two moves that combined reach 1 billion euros, namely the 300 million of the bond and the 650 million euros of the capital increase, where significant participation of American capital is estimated.
Through the upcoming share capital increase - which will be approved by the general meeting of the AKTOR group on 16 July and is expected to be completed by the end of next month - it is said that two high-profile international funds, probably American, will enter the share capital.
Two major players, as cornerstone investors, who are said to enter the book of the international offering, something that apparently has also been under discussion for some time now. The scenarios that among them is also the American development bank DFC are neither confirmed nor denied.