After four consecutive declining sessions, with the General Index recording cumulative losses of 2.07% and the sectoral banking index losses of 5.25%, today an attempt at a reaction was made, of unknown duration, if the international stock market climate does not also help in this.
Taking developments in chronological order, the US and Iran agreed on Sunday to suspend hostilities, start new talks from tomorrow and allow the free passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, after a weekend of military clashes that threatened to derail negotiations to end the crisis in the Middle East.
“Iran requested a meeting. A meeting will take place tomorrow in Doha, the capital of Qatar,” wrote Donald Trump in a post on the Truth Social platform.
It should be noted that the small-cap Russell 2000 index, on Wall Street, completed Friday's trading at new all-time highs.
It is recalled that the US market will remain closed next Friday (Independence Day).
Returning to the ATHEX, it should be noted that today’s session did not positively surprise in terms of trading performance (the lowest turnover of the last five sessions), despite the fact that the main ATHEX indices moved permanently in positive territory.
On the other hand, the final +1.26% of the banking index leaves no room for doubt about the sector that led today’s reaction, but the retreat from the intraday lows was at least clearly visible.
According to the cautiously optimistic, “it is considered a matter of time for buyers to return to banking stocks, as buyers will rush to price in the satisfactory first-half results that are expected.”
According to the financial calendars of the heavyweight banks and if there are no last-minute changes, on 29/7 PEIR announces first-half results, on 30/7 ETE, EUROB and OPTIMA, on 31/7 ALPHA, on 4/8 BOCHGR (also announcing payment of an interim dividend) and on 6/8 CREDIA.
It is worth recalling that tomorrow the first stock market half-year expires, with whatever this may imply for the last portfolio restructuring moves, as well as possible window dressing, where there are “interested forces,” while the picture so far continues to confirm those who argue that “the ATHEX will continue to rise with a few and fall with everyone.”
“Investors are expected to remain selective, as the market continues to balance technically overbought conditions, after four consecutive days of decline. While the recent pullback helped ease short-term valuation and momentum pressures, the broader upward trend remains unchanged, suggesting that buying interest is likely to reappear selectively in stocks with strong fundamentals and positive catalysts, with the energy sector remaining in the spotlight,” emphasizes Beta Sec.
On the other hand, the end of the half-year will also bring the final assessment of the free float of several listed companies, as changes in the listing and trading regime in the European capital market are expected in the coming period in the context of implementing the Listing Act. Among the main interventions is the reduction of the minimum required free float percentage to 10%, subject to the relevant national incorporation of the new rules. Euronext has already provided for the possibility of accepting a free float percentage lower than 25%, with a minimum threshold of 5%, while during the transitional period the application of a 10% threshold is being examined, in order to give greater flexibility to companies seeking listing on the stock exchange. Essentially, this announcement overturns the Kontopoulos regulation that set a 25% free float threshold, at least for companies entering with a valuation below 200 million euros (for listed companies with capitalization above 200 million euros, the minimum free float percentage can be limited to 15%).
In any case, at the beginning of July the listed companies that continue to face the risk of being transferred to the “surveillance” category will be announced. Any requests that may arise will be examined separately. The regulation refers to average half-year free float.
Most analysts declare themselves clearly concerned, noting that “this barrage announced by listed companies in share capital increases and bond issues and the ongoing raising of liquidity is beginning to resemble an “overdose” situation and when things get out of hand, significant negative surprises usually lurk at the end of the road.”
According to a veteran market figure, “after the announcements for a 650 million share capital increase and a 300 million bond issue by AKTR, for which the column had given timely warning, and the announced 250 million share capital increase for ELHA (approval by the general meeting is expected on 9/7), a large listed company is next in line which, with the same “story” (energy infrastructure), will examine the possibility of raising capital. If approved, the share capital increase would be placed during September, but the latest information states that the procedures may be accelerated.”
Meanwhile, according to the list of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission and regarding net short positions exceeding 0.5%:
Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership remains with a net short position of 0.50525% in the stock of QLCO, JP Morgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd with a net short position of 0.80012% in the stock of MTLN, AKO Capital LLP with a net short position of 1.31857% in the stock of MTLN, Marshall Wace LLP with a net short position of 0.71013% in the stock of MTLN.
As of 26/6, Qube Research & Technologies Limited increased its net short position to 0.74346% from 0.61894% in the stock of BYLOT and to 0.63356% from 0.51337% in ADMIE.
With marginal changes the main European markets, with traders having chosen a wait-and-see stance, focusing their attention on the annual forum of the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal, which opens this afternoon with a speech by Christine Lagarde. On Wednesday, the new Federal Reserve governor, Kevin Warsh, will speak on a panel.
Beyond that, the week that has begun will focus on data from the US labor market. Several key indicators will be announced in succession, culminating in the June employment report on Thursday.
“A strong labor market will confirm the resilience of the American economy. At the same time, it could strengthen estimates that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, increasing pressure on precious metals as well,” analysts emphasize.
In the eurozone, preliminary inflation data for June will be announced on Wednesday.
On the other hand, concerns about valuations in the artificial intelligence sector have certainly not ended.
The latest report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), among other things, states that “excessive optimism around the sector may lead to a prolonged investment collapse, with significant consequences for international markets and the global economy. The five largest providers of cloud services and artificial intelligence infrastructure are expected to invest more than $1 trillion in the 2025–2026 period. If the returns on this capital prove lower than expectations, investors may massively withdraw their funding, turning today’s investment ‘boom’ into a long period of shrinking investment.”
Yields in the bond market are moving in a stabilizing manner for all issuers. The yield on the US 2-year note is at 4.10%, on the 10-year at 4.37% (the yield on the 30-year at 4.86%). The yield on the Greek 10-year note is at 3.534%.
The General Index moved permanently in positive territory, recording the day’s high at 2477.64 points (+1.16%). At 17:00 it stood at 2477.64 (+1.16%) and completed trading at 2467.5 points, with daily gains of 0.74%.
Turnover at 237.3 million, of which 51.6 million concerns pre-agreed transactions (ALWN, AKTR, CREDIA, OPTIMA, ΑΔΜΗΕ, ETE, PEIR, ATH, VIO, ELPE, EUROB, SAR, PPC, ALPHA, GEKTERNA), with EUROB and ETE accounting for 28% of the total gross transaction value.
Of the total turnover of 237.3 million, 216.3 million concerns transactions in FTSE25 stocks.