From today Ireland takes over the baton of the six-month Presidency of the Council of the EU from Cyprus and, as Irish officials say, this time it is not a typical change of chair in Brussels but a six-month period in which decisions that have remained on paper will have to be implemented.
Dublin takes over at a moment when Europe has before it almost all the major open fronts at the same time: the next seven-year budget, defense, Ukraine, the Middle East, enlargement, competitiveness, artificial intelligence, the protection of children on the internet and, in the background, the difficult balance with Washington and London.
On paper, the three priorities of the Irish presidency are clear: competitiveness, values and security. In practice, however, the first major test will be where the EU will find the money to finance its needs.
The real bargaining of the coming months will take place around the new Multiannual Financial Framework, the EU budget for the period 2028-2034. The Commission has put on the table a proposal that is around 2 trillion euros. Germany, already on the eve of Ireland's assumption of the presidency, showed its red lines, asking for a reduction of about[PPA1] 400 billion euros and describing the proposal as unaffordable (link in the news story). Berlin's move is considered targeted and clear.
Ireland will be called upon to play the role of mediator, but the table at which it sits is not neutral. On the one hand are the net contributors, led by Germany, who do not want to see national contributions skyrocket.
On the other, the countries that are fighting for cohesion, agricultural support, regional development and traditional EU policies. And among all this, the new demands: defense, Ukraine, technology, competitiveness, energy security.
According to the framework that has already been shaped in Brussels, Dublin will have to help clarify by October the difficult issue of the EU's so-called “own resources” as well. That is, new sources of revenue that will not come directly from national budgets.
Ideas have been put on the table ranging from emissions revenues and the carbon border adjustment mechanism to digital revenues, crypto, online gambling, tobacco and others.
It is recalled that in order for there to be an agreement on the European budget unanimity is required. And unanimity, especially before critical election years in major European countries, is never a technical process. It is political bargaining, with trade-offs, with gray areas and with countries that will try to gain time particularly on the fiscal side.
Dublin wants, according to the official line, to show that it can lead the Union in “strength with unity”, as is the slogan of its six-month presidency.
Security on the table
With the war in Ukraine continuing, with Europe discussing again and again how much it can rely on the US, with the Middle East and the Gulf remaining open sources of instability, and with defense now having moved from the margins to the hard core of the European agenda, the negotiations are expected to be intense, even if behind the scenes.
Enlargement
Ireland has stated that it wants to move actively on the issue of candidate countries, with particular emphasis on the Western Balkans, but also with Ukraine and Moldova remaining on the European table. In the background, the question is familiar: how much enlargement can a Union withstand that has still not decided how it will be financed, how it will defend itself and how it will make decisions?
Ireland would like to appear as a bridge-country particularly with regard to the US, because of historical and political ties, with the United Kingdom, because of geography, Brexit and a special relationship, and the smaller EU countries, because of size and experience.
Technology
Dublin hosts the European headquarters of many of the major technology groups. For Ireland this is economic strength, but for others in Europe it constitutes political weakness. The discussion on artificial intelligence, digital sovereignty, the protection of children online and the implementation of European rules vis-à-vis the major platforms will put Ireland in an uncomfortable position: it will have to preside over dossiers where it is itself considered by many not simply an interested party, but a country with a special dependence on Big Tech.
The Presidency will also have a strong internal dimension for Ireland, a “proud” country that went through memorandums without allowing the so-called troika to intervene in its internal affairs. Ireland decided the measures and the troika approved them or asked for reconsideration. However, they never imposed them.
Now, in the Irish press there is already debate about the additional cost it will be forced to bear as presidency, as the country will host hundreds of meetings, informal ministerials, two leaders' summits and a series of high-level events. Although funds are provided from the Community budget, there are also additional expenses concerning security, transport, infrastructure and police mobilization.
Of course, the real question is whether Ireland can move from the image of the small, flexible, pro-European country to the role of the president who keeps difficult dossiers open without allowing them to derail.
Cyprus did not seem to manage it very well in the general framework. It was procedural. However, at the national level it managed to use the six months of its presidency to advance the signing of agreements with major companies for the production of Natural Gas and hydrocarbons.