Goldman Sachs raises the bar higher for the Athens Stock Exchange, as in its new report on emerging markets it sets a target price of 2,600 points for the General Index over a twelve-month horizon, up from 2,500 points previously. With the index at 2,468 points at the time the report was drafted, the new target implies upside potential of 5.3%.
The upgrade comes in a year in which the Greek market has already delivered significant returns: since the beginning of 2026, the General Index has recorded a rise of 14.6% in euro terms and 11.9% in dollar terms.
Cheap valuation, “rich” dividends
The American firm's investment case for Greece is based on two pillars. The first is valuation: the Greek market is trading at a P/E ratio of 10.5 times estimated twelve-month earnings, lower than the 11.3 times average of emerging markets (MSCI EM) and less than half the multiples seen in markets such as Taiwan (21.4x) or India (20.3x). The P/B ratio stands at just 1.5 times book value.
The second pillar is dividend yield, which is estimated at 4.8% — exactly double the emerging markets average (2.4%) and clearly higher than major index heavyweight markets such as Taiwan (1.7%), India (1.5%), China (3.4%) and Korea (0.8%), although it trails cases such as Indonesia (9.2%), Brazil (7.5%) or the Czech Republic (5.6%).
On the profitability front, the consensus places earnings per share growth at 12% for both 2026 and 2027 — a steady, double-digit pace that stands out in combination with the low valuation. It is noted, however, that short-term estimate revisions appear negative (-3.7% over one month and -3.1% over the quarter in local currency), while over a twelve-month horizon they remain positive (+5.9%).
Greece's position on the emerging markets map
In Goldman Sachs' comparative table, Greece has a 0.5% weighting in the MSCI EM index — a small size, but with an attractive combination of low valuation and high distributions. For emerging markets as a whole, the firm sets a target of 2,000 points for the MSCI EM, up from 1,723 points today, that is, upside potential of about 16%, after an already impressive +25.6% since the beginning of the year in local currencies (+22.7% in dollar terms).
It is worth noting, however, that the upside potential the firm “sees” for Greece (+5.3%) is among the more restrained in the table: for Korea the target implies a rise of more than 40%, for China about 23% and for Taiwan 13%, while on the other hand, for markets such as the Czech Republic, Poland or Peru the targets are below current levels.