The unexpected decline recorded by the price of gold from its historic highs of the first quarter of 2026 made lovers of the “yellow metal” particularly hesitant. This hesitation was significantly contributed to by a series of factors, such as the ongoing high spread maintained by the Bank of Greece between the purchase and sale of the gold sovereign, the rise of the dollar and yields on government bonds.
According to the Daily Price Bulletin of 2/7/2026, the Central Bank was buying the gold sovereign at 811.04 euros and selling it at 950.24 euros, while Piraeus Bank was buying at 812 euros and selling at 938 euros.
On the other hand, analysts as a whole continue to estimate that the decline in gold prices is temporary and perhaps even an opportunity for gradual placements, as all the factors that supported the consecutive historic highs, such as purchases by central banks, but also the continuously increasing public debt, remain fully in force.
According to the annual survey of the World Gold Council for 2026, “74% of Central Banks believe that the share of global foreign exchange reserves held in dollars will be lower over the next five years, while gold’s share is expected to increase. For the gold market, this shift constitutes an important and lasting demand factor, which often acts as a counterweight to short-term pressures from interest rates, or movements in the dollar.
In the short term, the gold market will likely remain particularly sensitive to inflation data and statements by Fed officials. A new rise in real yields on US bonds, or a significant strengthening of the dollar, could maintain pressure on the precious metal.
The Fed’s recent meeting created a short-term “headwind” for gold, without however overturning its long-term investment story. Rising fiscal deficits, the high US public debt and the continued accumulation of gold by central banks continue to constitute the main pillars supporting the position of the precious metal in global investment portfolios.
On the other hand, Deutsche Bank proceeded to downgrade its forecasts for the price of gold, as investors are becoming more cautious regarding the prospects of US monetary policy and investment demand for the precious metal is decreasing. According to the firm, the price of gold is now expected at $4300 per ounce for the third quarter of 2026 and at $4800 for the last quarter.
Deutsche Bank’s more cautious estimates followed the move by Goldman Sachs, which lowered its forecast for the end of 2026 to $4900 per ounce, as it does not see interest rate cuts from the US Central Bank this year.
“Despite the fact that the precious metal started the year with strong momentum and recorded new historic high levels, what followed was characterized by a significant correction, which caused doubts regarding the sustainability of the upward trend of previous years,” as pointed out by Symeon Mavroudis (portfolio manager at Fast Finance AEPEY).
The main cause of the pressures faced by gold is linked to the change in expectations surrounding the monetary policy of the United States. The Federal Reserve continues to face inflationary pressures that remain higher than the 2% target, a fact that has led the market to price in an environment of higher interest rates for a longer period of time.
And recognizing that gold does not offer cash flows or income, the rise in real yields on government bonds comparatively reduces its attractiveness and intensifies pressure on prices. On the other hand, given that many countries seek to reduce their dependence on the dollar and US government bonds, in recent years a clear trend has been observed toward diversification of foreign exchange reserves.
In this light, gold functions as a strategic reserve asset, free from the credit risk embedded in other financial instruments. In addition, fiscal developments at a global level continue to act supportively for gold.
For example, in the United States, fiscal deficits remain at particularly high levels, while public debt follows a steady upward course, at the same time that the cost of servicing the debt is increasing at rapid rates due to higher interest rates.
In conclusion, gold’s recent weakness may prove to be more a period of readjustment and less the beginning of a permanent downward trend, estimates Symeon Mavroudis.
Returning to gold sovereigns and according to the data of the BoG, the end of the second quarter of 2026 found Greek investors having bought just 714 pieces, which is a negative 24-year record (since 2002, when official data from the BoG exist), while they sold 6,772 gold sovereigns.
In the total of the first half, purchases from the BoG reached 2,095 gold sovereigns and sales to the BoG reached 13,950 gold sovereigns.