METLEN: The price of aluminum is already at a four-year high, having risen by 11-12% since the start of hostilities. We quote the reasons from a related article in the FT:
"The war in Iran has caused foundries to close and 'force majeure' declarations across the Middle East aluminum industry, threatening a supply crisis for the key industrial metal.
Several major producers have said they are no longer able to honor their contracts, given that the Middle East accounts for nearly 10% of global refined aluminum production, with large smelters in Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
Max Layton, an analyst at Citi, said aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) could rise to as much as $4,000 per ton from $3,322 today if the turmoil continues.
Aluminum stocks in US domestic Comex warehouses are near historic lows, with stocks in the London Metal Exchange's network of warehouses in Europe and Asia also near historic lows, according to Refinitiv data.
METLEN II: As we mentioned in a previous comment, the problem in the Middle East is threefold. There are disruptions to production facilities, an inability to export finished cargoes, and a problem with the supply of the basic raw material, namely alumina. This is a problem that will not disappear immediately after the end of hostilities.
On the contrary, Aluminium of Greece is largely vertically integrated, having its own bauxite and alumina, while it has also signed a long-term agreement to supply additional bauxite from Guinea in West Africa, i.e. via routes that do not pass through the Middle East.
Take a look at A.T.E.'ssharein Metlen's results, and take a look at the "fresh" Morgan Stanley report we published yesterday,and you will fully understand why it characterizes the Greek listed company asa "buy opportunity"with a target price of €55.
Especially after you note what it says at one point about natural gas: "for every €5/MWh increase in natural gas prices (in the TTF contract), weestimate anet EBITDA boost of €10-20 million."
The price in the April TTF contract has already risen not by €5 but by around €20 compared to its pre-war price.
In other words, the bonus has doubled, and those who understand will understand.
P.S. Despite all this, it was announced yesterday that GLG Partners LP opened a short position in the stock at a rate of 0.5%.
ENERGY:The country's energy agreements with Chevron and Helleniq Energy are now taking on a dramatic character, as their ratification by Parliament and, therefore, the launch of their implementation coincides with the outbreak of war in the Middle East.
Despite the opposition's disagreements on specific parts of the agreements, this was the general conclusion yesterday during the debate in the Parliamentary Committee, especially since the offshore plots are located south of the Peloponnese and Crete.
The minister responsible, Stavros Papastavrou, referred to this very coincidence, saying: "The volatile international environment requires us not to delay. For the government, the message that must be sent to Chevron is that we will not reconsider."
And not only that: he spoke ofa"national success" that began in 2011, citing (positively) the then minister Yiannis Maniatis, but also the SYRIZA government, because "it did not abandon hydrocarbons."
It remains to be seen whether his prediction that the first drilling will begin in twelve months, i.e. in early 2027, will come true.
PASOK: The official opposition party is pulling more weapons from its arsenal of problematic tenders and direct awards, intensifying its attacks on the government.
Following Nikos Androulakis ' complaint in Parliament the day before yesterday about the company that undertook (in the above ways...) the communication planning for the postal vote of Greeks abroad, yesterday saw the release of data from the Vouliwatch report in collaboration with Solomon.
Entitled "The great feast of consultocracy unfolding under the auspices of the Mitsotakis government," Char. Trikoupis representative Kostas Tsoukalas firedoff: "From 2017 to 2025, the Greek government has signed thousands of consulting service contracts worth billions of euros with private companies, mainly through direct award procedures, "he said.
He noted in particular that "the report records 3 , 079 contracts with a total value of €1.55 billion that were distributed among 1,266 companies, without taking into account additional consulting service contracts with a value of less than €15,000."
The bottom line?"The report shows that just 1% of contractors absorb 96% of the money given, meaning that twelve companies received approximately €1.5 billion, while 62% of contracts appear to have been awarded directly, without any competition."
Logically, the government will not leave such allegations unanswered, because the evidence is not to be taken lightly...
MANIATIS: Our... grace will reach the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg next Wednesday, and not for good reasons.
This is because the request submitted by the head of the PASOK MEPs, Yiannis Maniatis, to discuss the issue of the rule of law in Greece has been accepted. The reason, of course, is the decision of the Single-Member Misdemeanour Court on the case of illegal surveillance using Predator spyware.
The element that (is certain to) attract attention is the court's assumption that there was a direct link between those accused of using Predator and the EYP and the government.
As Char. Trikoupi pointedly notes, Mr. Maniatis' request was voted down only by the European People's Party (to which the New Democracy party belongs) and the far-right group of Sovereign Nations, which includesAlternative for Germany.
PARLIAMENT: The curtain will officially fall on the OPEC scandal investigation committee on Tuesday, with the discussion of the "blue" findings in the plenary session.
Formally, it is called the "findings of the Inquiry," but it is in fact the assessment of the majority of its members, i.e., New Democracy, which, as is well known, found no political responsibility in this high-profile case from the period 2020-2025.
Tuesday's debate is not expected to be calm at all, as the entire opposition has requested that the Inquiry continue its work by summoning additional witnesses and conducting cross-examinations, but this has been rejected by the government majority.
It remains to be seen what will happen when (or if...) the European Public Prosecutor's Office 's supplementary case file on OPECEPE, which is expected any month now, reaches Parliament...
CYBER SECURITY: The meeting may not have been publicized, but it seems that it was one of those that had substance.
We have been informed that mayors, deputy mayors for technology, and other high-ranking local government officials met at the Odyssey offices in Piraeus Tower to discuss existing gaps and the actions that need to be taken on the cybersecurity front.
It was apparently concluded that, as is the case throughout the country, there is much to be done in local government.
The key point is that the meeting was also attended by very high-ranking officials from the so-called "digital state"and, as it seems, regulations will soon be put in place to limit the risk of cyberattacks on local government.
THEODOROPOULOS: Green light for capital return from Bespoke Real Estate. A relevant decision was taken last week by the company's extraordinary general meeting, whose CEO is the president of the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV), Spyros Theodoropoulos.
Specifically, it was decided to reduce the share capital by €4,872,666 through the cancellation of an equal number of shares with a nominal value of €1, with the aim of returning capital to shareholders through cash payments.
After the reduction, the company's total share capital stands at €10,222,334.
SHIPPING: The unprecedented challenges facing the shipping industry were mentioned, among other things, by the CEO of Vafias Group of Companies, Haris Vafias, at The Economist Shipping Summit.
He said that it is very difficult to make medium- to long-term plans, citing as an example the developments in the Middle East that have radically changed companies' plans. "The terms of the equation have changed," he stressed, among other things, pointing out that any predictions have gone down the drain.
In fact, wanting to emphasize the way decisions are made in a volatile environment, H. Vafias said that today shipping companies do not plan, but gamble ...
In the "Shipping - Crises" contest, there is a clear favorite...
PET CITY:Capital injection for the well-known chain. Its meeting approved a share capital increase of €7 million, with a cash payment and the issuance of 700,000 new shares.
This brings the company's total share capital to €7.65 million.
INTERTRADE: The Ministry of Development has given the green light for the disbursement of €10.15 million to Intertrade Hellas S.A. as part of the implementation of the investment strategy for the expansion of the capacity of the industrial paper production plant.
The funding comes from the "Flagship Investments of Exceptional Importance" program of the Recovery and Resilience Fund (Greece 2.0). The disbursement relates to the interim certification of the implementation of 40% of the physical and financial scope of the investment, which has been included in the strategic investment regime under Law 4864/2021.
REFINERIES: Investors appear "undecided" aboutMotor Oil and Helleniq Energy. The two stocks were the only ones in the FTSE-25 to decline on Wednesday, a day when the General Index soared. Yesterday, however, a day of mild gains, both were among the leaders.
The Vardinoyannis group company closed 3.03% higher at €35.42 with €8.2 million in trading, while Helleniq Energy ended the session at €8.7, up 1.75%.
The focus is on developments in the Middle East and the consequences for the energy market...
ALTER EGO MEDIA: Vangelis Marinakis' company is building the ultimate diversification story, as evidenced by yesterday's acquisition of 51% of More.gr. The new acquisition is expected to contribute 20% of future operating profitability, which means that live entertainment is becoming particularly important.
According to market estimates, the deal is a "defensive growth story,"given that the live entertainment sector has significant room for further growth in Greece.
In addition, the group's media can serve as powerful channels for promoting events and the More.gr platform, reducing the cost of acquiring new users and increasing ticket sales.
It should be noted that this is Alter Ego Media's second move in this area. At the end of October, it acquired a stake in Stages Network.
P.S.: The scope of the media group and the moves it is making suggest bundling of services, which could lead to a new—and powerful—subscription model.