Eurobank Equities is significantly upgrading its estimates for the two Greek refineries, noting that the recent geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East did not merely cause a temporary spike in refining margins but confirmed a new, higher profitability baseline for the sector.
The brokerage firm upgrades its recommendation for HelleniQ Energy to “Buy” from “Hold,” raising the price target to 12.6 euros from 9.4 euros, while maintaining Motor Oil as its top pick (“top pick”) and raising its target price to 53.2 euros from 39.1 euros.
Eurobank Equities appears significantly more optimistic about the prospects of the two Greek refining groups, assessing that the market continues to underestimate the structural improvement in profit margins and, by extension, their profitability. According to its latest analysis, the temporary surge in refining margins triggered by the crisis between Iran and the United States may have subsided following diplomatic developments; however, the levels at which they continue to trade remain significantly higher than the historical average.
The brokerage firm estimates that Greek refineries, thanks to their high exposure to diesel and jet fuel, will achieve an average refining margin of approximately $17 per barrel in 2026, which is $2 to $3 higher than in 2025. This translates to operating profits (EBITDA) of around 1.3 billion euros for both HelleniQ Energy and Motor Oil, a level approximately 30% higher than the forecasts prevailing at the beginning of the year.
However, the report’s most significant finding concerns the sector’s medium-term outlook. Eurobank Equities believes that refining margins are unlikely to return to pre-2022 levels of $6–7 per barrel, which many analysts still use as a benchmark for the market cycle. Instead, it estimates that the new “normal” is taking shape at low- to mid-double-digit margins, a trend attributed to steady demand for middle distillates, such as diesel and jet fuel, as well as to historically limited refining capacity in Europe.
The analysis highlights that the European market continues to rely increasingly on imported fuels transported via longer and more vulnerable trade routes, a factor that supports the profit margins of modern and complex refineries, such as those in Greece.
Based on this assessment, Eurobank Equities is significantly revising its estimates upward. For HelleniQ Energy, it raises its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 35% to 1.3 billion euros, while upgrading its forecasts for 2027 and 2028 by 15% and 10%, respectively, to approximately 1.1 billion euros.
Similarly, for Motor Oil, it forecasts EBITDA of approximately 1.3 billion euros in 2026 and approximately 1.1 billion euros for the following two years, assuming that refining margins will stand at $16 per barrel in 2026 and will stabilize at approximately $13 in the medium term.
Special mention is made of HelleniQ Energy, noting that its profitability does not depend exclusively on refining. Eurobank Equities estimates that approximately 500 million euros of the downstream sector’s operating profits come from activities such as trading, the supply chain, logistics, and the commercial network—a fact that reduces the cyclicality of its results and justifies a higher valuation compared to a “pure-play” refining group.
Despite the significant rise in the share prices of both companies, the brokerage firm believes they continue to trade at attractive valuations, below their historical average, while also offering high dividend yields and maintaining strong balance sheets. As it notes, the market has not yet fully priced in the sustained improvement in the profitability of Greek refineries, a fact that leaves significant room for further gains in their stock prices.