Pantelakis Securities paints a strong picture for the refining sector in Europe, maintaining an “overweight” recommendation for both Motor Oil and Helleniq Energy while revising its target prices upward.
The brokerage firm raises the target price for Motor Oil to 51.2 euros from 40 euros (33% upside potential), and for Helleniq Energy to 12.5 euros from 10 euros (upside potential of approximately 13%), maintaining Motor Oil as its top pick in the sector.
According to the analysis, refining margins have recently surged due to supply disruptions, including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Russian refineries, which led to a significant reduction in diesel and jet fuel inventories in Europe, bringing them to historically low levels.
Although margins have retreated from recent highs following the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, they remain at particularly high levels, with demand proving resilient despite higher energy costs and an unstable macroeconomic environment.
Pantelakis is revising its estimates for 2026–2027 refining margins upward.
Following strong first-quarter results, with refining margins of $20.5 per barrel for Helleniq Energy and $18.9 per barrel for Motor Oil, Pantelakis Securities is revising its estimates for 2026–2027 upward, raising margins to $17.4/bbl and $15.2/bbl, respectively, for Helleniq Energy (+16% and +9%), compared to $16.7/bbl and $14.8/bbl for Motor Oil (+9% and unchanged).
Consequently, it forecasts EBITDA of over 1.3 billion euros for Helleniq Energy and over 1.4 billion euros for Motor Oil this year, before a gradual normalization to high but more sustainable levels of 1.1–1.3 billion euros in 2027–2028, driven in part by “green” investments.