Dear friends, good day to you all!
Turkey has never abandoned even a single one of its claims against Greece. It has not withdrawn the casus belli. It has not abandoned the “Blue Homeland.” It has not stopped challenging Greek sovereign rights. It has not withdrawn from occupied Cyprus.
Turkey has not changed as a result of the “calm waters” policy. What has changed with this policy is the way Europe deals with Turkey. And perhaps the greatest contribution of the “calm waters” policy was not that it reduced tensions in the Aegean, but that it facilitated precisely this shift.
Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis stated yesterday on SKAI that “calm waters are useful, but they are not an end in themselves.” It is hard to disagree with this observation. De-escalation is preferable to tension. The reduction in migration flows is a positive development. Equally positive is the fact that violations of Greek airspace have been significantly curtailed.
However, a reasonable question arises. If “calm waters” are not an end in themselves, then what was their strategic objective? And, above all, what was their political outcome?
The timing of the statement also does not go unnoticed. It comes at a time when the government is attempting to regain support from its right-wing base, while the discussion about a possible new party led by Antonis Samaras is already influencing the political landscape.
A third-party observer could reasonably conclude that the assertion that “calm waters are not an end in themselves” constitutes an attempt to shift the political tone. However, if only the rhetoric changes and not the policy, then we are faced with an obvious contradiction.
For just the day before, on June 30, 2026, the European Union and Turkey signed a joint communiqué in Ankara that reflects their intention to deepen their cooperation in nearly every critical area: the economy, security, defense, migration, energy, transportation, and even through new rounds of high-level institutional dialogue.
It is a text that hardly seems to refer to Turkey itself. The country that continues to occupy European territory in Cyprus. That maintains a casus belli against Greece. That continues to challenge the sovereign rights of two European Union member states.
“All of this” despite the fact that just a few days earlier, the European Parliament had adopted a highly critical report on Turkey. It spoke of a decline in the rule of law, democratic backsliding, human rights violations, the casus belli, the “Blue Homeland,” the occupation of Cyprus, and threats against Greece.
This is a glaring contradiction. But perhaps not just a European one.
Because foreign policy is not judged solely by its intentions. It is also judged by its results. And the result is that today the European Union feels comfortable enough to build an ever-closer strategic relationship with a country that, on paper at least, it continues to characterize as problematic.
Why did this happen? Because Greece allowed it. Because when Greece itself invests politically in an image of normalcy, when it signs declarations of friendship and presents its relations with Turkey as an example of de-escalation, it sends a specific message to its partners: that the Greek-Turkish problem is no longer an obstacle to the upgrading of Euro-Turkish relations.
No one in Brussels could appear more concerned than Greece itself. And that brings us to where we are today. On the one hand, Athens states that “calm waters” are useful but not an end in themselves; on the other hand, it finds itself facing a Europe that is exploiting precisely this image of normality to bring Turkey back into the core of its strategy.
Diplomacy is not judged solely by what you say to your adversary. It is also judged by the messages you send to your allies. If you convince them that the threat has been contained, you cannot be surprised when they begin to treat your adversary as a strategic partner.
Perhaps, in the end, these “calm waters” are the greatest gift Greece has given to Turkey. Not because they changed Turkey, but because they helped change the way Europe views it.