TRIANTOPOULOS: A lot of noise was made (as you will also read below) about the referral of Triantopoulos to the Special Court for the offense of breach of duty regarding the so-called “cover-up” at Tempi.How likely, however, is it that we will go from referral to trial to a conviction? Criminal lawyers who know Article 259 of the Penal Code on breach of duty well say that convictions for this offense are extremely rare, even when a public official appears to the naked eye not to have acted in accordance with his duties, as defined by law.
According to the law and the case law of the Supreme Court, four conditions must be met for a conviction, including one that is extremely difficult to prove in court: the so-called “special intent”.
That is, it must be proven that the public official did not simply violate his duty, but acted with the “exclusive and direct purpose” either of securing for himself or another an “illegal benefit” (material or moral), or of causing “harm” (financial or otherwise) to the state or to a third party.
Usually, say the criminal lawyers familiar with the matter, it is very difficult to prove all this and charges of breach of duty “collapse” very easily in court.
Thus, as they estimate, despite the great noise over Triantopoulos being referred to trial, the most likely outcome is that in the Special Court we will not see a conviction.
TRIANTOPOULOS II: Yesterday’s development, however, and his own announcement that he will not participate in the next elections, brought hidden smiles to his intra-party rivals.
And this is because they will have one less… obstacle in the battle for entry into the next Parliament, which in fact—based on polls—will most likely have fewer blue MPs than it does today.
Christos Triantopoulos was elected in 2023 for the first time as an MP for Magnesia, coming first in preference votes on the blue ballot, with Zetta Makri second and Christos Boukoros third.
It is worth noting that four years earlier, in 2019, he was sixth in the choice of ND voters, but his subsequent appointment to the post of deputy minister to the prime minister elevated him hierarchically.
Until the fateful day of the Tempi tragedy arrived.
OPPOSITION: And now, who is fit for the rubble? The question is being posed in the statements of all opposition parties since yesterday noon, recalling the famous phrase of Justice Minister Giorgos Floridis, that whoever talks about a cover-up at the site of the Tempi tragedy “is fit for the rubble”.
The question they are now raising concerns the person who ordered this action, given that the charge against Mr. Triantopoulos is “omission of duty,” that is, that he did not prevent the interventions.
Opposition officials recall the argument of the then minister that he was sent by his immediate political superior, namely the prime minister, to the site of the tragedy, with instructions to remain there and coordinate the actions.
“Mr. Triantopoulos is being referred for breach of duty. Along with him, Thessaly regional governor Mr. Agorastos and three other state officials. Their criminal liability will be judged by Justice. But the questions remain relentless. Who decided the alteration? Who gave the relevant orders?”, is the insinuation-laden question publicly posed by the Hellenic Police.
OPPOSITION II: PASOK is limiting itself (“for now”) to targeting Floridis - Voridis - Georgiadis: “We remember Mr. Georgiadis publicly arguing that ‘the involvement of Triantopoulos was brought up in order to build a conspiracy around the Maximos Mansion,’ and Mr. Voridis stating in Parliament that ‘there are no indications of guilt’ for Mr. Triantopoulos.
We remember Mr. Floridis, in a crude attempt to influence justice, shamelessly declaring that ‘whoever talks about a cover-up is fit for the rubble.’
So who is fit for the rubble today, Mr. Marinakis, after Mr. Triantopoulos was referred?”, the statement says.
The prime minister is also being pointed to by SYRIZA, recalling his earlier statement that the cover-up was done “with good intentions”. With the remark that the decision for a Special Court “fully exposes the government and its provocative claims that there was nothing reprehensible about the hasty covering-up of the site”.
P.S. The political significance of this referral is magnified by the fact that the Special Court will be sitting during a pre-election period, since the hearing of the case is expected to begin in 2-3 months.
MARKETS: For months now this column has been ringing warning bells about what is happening in government bonds. We did so when the rise in yields was just beginning to show that it constituted a serious threat and we returned to the issue when the international long-term government bond index was reaching the levels of the 2008 crisis.
Yesterday’s Bloomberg data showed that things have worsened considerably since then and the warning bells have turned into a full-blown… alarm.
The US 10-year reached 5.29%, the British one 5.41% and the French one 4.81%. The US and Britain have gone back to 2007 levels, with France at July 2008 levels.
The biggest source of concern in the EU is France. Within one year, its 10-year yield rose by… 128 basis points! It is now above both the Italian and the Greek one, while its spread over the German bond has widened to the highest levels since 2012.
And we all remember what was happening in 2012.
All this while the battle over the budget is approaching and, in the spring of 2027, the presidential elections, with the governor of the Bank of France warning of the possibility of a crisis in sovereign debt!
MARKETS II: Next to it, Britain with a 10-year yield above 5.4% and its own fiscal difficulties. On the other side of the Atlantic, the US, whose 10-year rose by 114 basis points in twelve months, while debt and deficits have skyrocketed.
The big question is how much longer equity markets will hold up, which, as some analysts observe, have begun to show signs of fatigue.
Something that seems to be happening lately in the Greek stock market as well.
Because when government bond yields rise so much, money itself becomes more expensive and investors traditionally begin to reprice the cost of equity risk.
Markets, some will say, “climb a wall of worry”.
The old saying is true, but the height of the rise that has preceded it—and the valuations of certain sectors—show that if something goes wrong, the fall could be very heavy!
AVAX: A deep breath for the stock in the wake of the report by Axia-Alpha Finance, with which it initiated coverage of the construction company’s stock, setting the bar at 5.1 euros, with upside in the 60% zone.
The stock opened at 3.24 euros (+1.25%) but closed at the day’s high of 3.38 euros (+5.62%), with trading exceeding 1.4 million euros.
Notably, even in the adverse scenario, AVAX’s stock has upside potential, according to the brokerage. In the “pessimistic” scenario, the brokerage assumes that the group will secure construction contracts worth 500 million euros less in the 2027-2030 period. Even then, the valuation comes to 3.50 euros, about 4% above current levels.
Conversely, in the optimistic scenario, AVAX wins additional projects with revenues of about 900 million euros in the 2026-2030 period. In this case, fair value rises to 6.32 euros, meaning the stock could double.
Analysts stress that the scenario is not “far-fetched,” due to the investment cycle in infrastructure and energy in Greece. They remind that the new natural gas unit in Larissa alone is expected to bring AVAX revenues of 500-600 million euros.
On the dividends front, Axia-Alpha estimates that the dividend per share will increase from 0.10 euros for fiscal year 2025 to 0.12 euros for 2026 and 2027. The dividend yield will be 3.8% and 3.7% respectively, above the European sector index.
The profit distribution ratio is estimated at 31%-40% through 2030, with a gradual increase.
DELAPORTAS: DryDel Shipping of Kostas Delaportas is adding a new order for two kamsarmax bulkers to its already large investment program, totaling more than 1 billion dollars.
The Athens-based shipping company ordered two vessels of 82,000 dwt capacity from Tsuneishi Shipbuilding in Japan, for delivery in 2029. The price of the agreement was not disclosed.
“We see strong long-term demand for modern and efficient 82,000 dwt Japanese-built vessels, while relatively few shipyards are willing to build ships of this size”, DryDel said.
With the new order, the number of bulkers the company has ordered in recent years from Japanese-controlled shipyards amounts to about 25, with a total value of more than 1 billion dollars.
DryDel currently has 13 owned vessels, with an average age of just 2.2 years, while it also has about 12 more newbuilds under construction, with deliveries through 2030.
LENDOUDIS: Evalend Shipping of shipowner Kriton Lendoudis is entering the large bulker market, ordering five newcastlemaxes from the Chinese shipyard Dajin Heavy Industry.
According to shipbuilding sources, the vessels will each have a capacity of 211,000 dwt and a cost of about 77.5 million dollars per vessel. Deliveries of the three vessels are scheduled for 2029 and of the other two for 2030.
Evalend has a fleet of 63 vessels, including 28 bulkers with capacities from 19,000 to 93,500 dwt. In total, it has 35 newbuilds on order at shipyards in China and South Korea, significantly strengthening its presence in tankers, bulkers and gas carriers.
TSAKOS: Tsakos Energy Navigation (TEN) proceeded with the sale of the oldest vessel in its fleet, as part of its ongoing fleet renewal program, totaling about 3 billion dollars.
The New York-listed shipping company of Nikos Tsakos sold the 68,400 dwt LR1 product tanker Andes, built in 2003, to interests based in the United Arab Emirates. The transaction is expected to generate about 13 million dollars in free cash flow and a capital gain of 4.6 million dollars.
The… old wreck has already been delivered to its new owners and is now operating as Kazuki under the management of UAE-based Aveya Shipping.
TEN has sold about 20 older vessels over the past three years, generating total estimated proceeds of about 750 million dollars. At the same time, it has ordered 26 newbuilds, with a total value of about 3 billion dollars.