The General Index of the Greek Stock Exchange was coming off two consecutive declining sessions, with cumulative losses of 3.72%, while over the same period, the banking sector index posted losses of 6.28%.
With the total capitalization of the ASE, over the two sessions, recording cumulative losses of 6.6 billion euros, it was only natural that today an attempt would be made for a weak rebound, even of a technical nature, despite the cautious picture of the major European markets.
From that point on, today as well the ASE remained faithful to its well-known “factory settings”, with the familiar stocks of the past many months as positive protagonists, while the rest of the board remained in trading neglect. In fact, with the main ASE indices in positive territory, for most of the session declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones, something that did not change until the end and this certainly says something about what comes next.
Beyond that, the column had in good time warned that with the completion of the mandatory inflows - placements from Foreign Funds and with the end of the stock market quarter and whatever “window dressing”, with the start of the new month, the Domestic Stock Market has entered a “buying vacuum”.
This was confirmed today in the most emphatic way, as the turnover that “accompanied” today’s session was the lowest of the last 19 sessions, with the immediately lower one having been recorded on 8/9 at 243.6 million.
All the above, with oil recording a new, slight decline, while yields in the bond market appear clearly more stable.
It remains to be seen whether the latest analysts’ estimates will be confirmed, who do not see interest rate hikes in October from the ECB, but only in December for this year. The same applies in the case of the Fed, after the announcement of the PCE for the month of August. In fact, the more “advanced” ones, among them Goldman Sachs, move the second increase to December, without ruling out that the Fed may judge that no further increases are needed.
It is recalled that according to the economic calendar, the next meetings - announcements of the ECB are scheduled for 29/10 and 17/12/2026.
The corresponding ones of the Fed are scheduled for 28/10 and 9/12/2026.
The next scheduled monetary policy meetings of the BoJ are for 30/10 and 18/12 and of the BoE for 5/11 and 17/12.
According to HellasFin AEPEY, “the period of cheap money has given way to a much more demanding investment environment. Higher yields create new opportunities for ‘rentiers’, but at the same time require greater attention to bond duration, issuer quality and overall portfolio allocation. In equities, the divergence between Technology and traditional sectors is becoming increasingly pronounced, while in foreign exchange and commodity markets, the direction of interest rates remains a decisive factor”.
In the case of the ASE and according to a veteran analyst, the search for the next upward catalyst will continue, but the most likely scenario appears to be the one stating that “as we get closer to the elections, the center of gravity of the Market will gradually shift from geopolitical developments, inflation and interest rates, toward the polls, with whatever that may entail”.
Meanwhile, “the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until seven Iranian conditions are fulfilled, based on the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding provided for in an interim June agreement with the US,” “Nournews” reported, citing the President of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Returning to the ASE, there were not a few who estimated that “the second reading of the financial results of the first half could create room for selective placements and position reshuffling”, but this, at least today, was not clearly visible from traders’ moves.
“Strong profitability and increased liquidity allow listed companies to continue the policy of high cash distributions to shareholders. In total, 18 companies have announced interim dividends or capital returns exceeding €1.2 billion and are expected to be paid by the end of the year. This is the continuation of a trend that became more visible in 2024 and strengthened in 2025,” emphasizes Manos Chatzidakis (Beta Sec.).
Meanwhile, according to the statement of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission and regarding net short positions exceeding 0.5%:
Qube Research & Technologies Limited remains with a net short position of 0.89324% in ADMIE, a net short position of 0.50267% in AKTR shares, a net short position of 0.79475% in BYLOT shares and a net short position of 0.56261% in CREDIA.
As of 2/10, AKO Capital LLP reduced its net short position to 1.13407%, from 1.27605% in MTLN shares.
With mixed signs the major European markets. The French CAC 40 is at six-month lows, as concerns intensify over the country’s debt and deficits, as well as over the political deadlock ahead of next year’s presidential elections.
Turning to the bond market, the yield on the US 2-year note stands at 4.81%, on the 10-year at 5.27%. The 30-year yield is at 5.63%. The yield on the Greek 10-year note is at 4.471%, the yield on the corresponding French one at 4.83%.
The General Index moved permanently in positive territory, recording an intraday high at 2657.03 points (+0.78%). At 17:00 it stood at 2644.03 (+0.28%) and completed trading at 2639.95 points, with daily gains of 0.13%.
Turnover at 294.6 million, of which 58.7 million concerned pre-agreed transactions (AKTR, ALWN, OPTIMA, CREDIA, ALPHA, GEKTERNA, EEE, ETE, BELA, EUROB, DAA, PPC, OLP, MOH), with ALPHA and EUROB accounting for 34% of the total gross transaction value.
Of the total turnover of 294.6 million, 280.1 million concerned transactions in FTSE 25 shares.
The picture in large capitalization
Among the heavyweight banking stocks, ETE (+0.09%) did not come into contact with the “red”, while both signs changed for ALPHA (-0.9%), EUROB (+0.74%), PEIR (0%), BOCHGR (-0.09%), CREDIA (-0.51%) and OPTIMA (+2.66% and closing at new all-time highs).
The banking sector index moved permanently in positive territory, climbing as high as 3171.7 (+1.17%). At 17:00 it stood at 3144.36 (+0.30%) and completed trading at 3140.85 points, with daily gains of 0.18%.
The DTR with a daily buy signal, which is cancelled by a return and close below 3062 points. The next resistance is at 3400 points. The next supports are at 3007, 2756 (200-day exponential moving average) and 2727 points (200-day simple moving average).
Staying with the sector, “the Greek housing market has recorded one of the most significant recoveries in Europe after the crisis, with apartment prices now having exceeded their pre-crisis level and standing about 85% higher than the 2017 low. This development supports the asset quality of Greek banks, as higher property values strengthen collateral, while improved household balance sheets and more conservative lending criteria limit risks,” according to Morningstar DBRS.
The prevalence of “green” titles is shown by the final picture on the board of non-bank blue chips, where the largest daily changes were recorded by ALWN (+4.11%), TITC (+1.5%), AKTR (-1.78%), BIO (+2.27%), GEKTERNA (-1.97%), DAA (-2.48%).
The ALWN share (+4.11%) moved permanently in positive territory, after Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil’s elections, who however failed to secure a majority and the country is heading to a second election on October 25.
Bolsonaro gathered about 47% of the vote, against Lula’s 45%. He has criticized the blanket ban and appears more positive toward sports betting, although he is opposed to online casinos.
“A possible change of government could improve Betano’s medium-term prospects in Brazil, mainly in sportsbook. However, stricter regulation is considered more likely rather than a full return to the previous regime, with restrictions on advertising, deposits and betting,” according to Eurobank Equities.
Despite the better political odds, Eurobank maintains “Hold” and a target price of 11.10 euros, noting that “the Allwyn story remains in a phase of significant developments”.
“METLEN announced the signing of a long-term commercial agreement with a leading Japanese chemicals company, for the future supply of gallium, in a quantity corresponding to up to 16% of its total annual production, from the production unit in Greece, which is at an advanced stage of erection - construction. The commercial terms of the agreement remain confidential. This new partnership is the second strategic commercial agreement for METLEN’s future gallium production and further confirms the strong international demand for a reliable European source of supply. As industries globally seek to diversify critical raw material supply chains, METLEN is further consolidating its position as a reliable, long-term partner of leading industrial and technology companies in different geographic markets. It follows the July agreement with a leading American technology company, which covers about 25% of production, raising the announced contracted quantities to as much as 41% of projected capacity,” notes an analysis by Morgan Stanley.
It should be noted that today the MTLN share (+0.45%) moved permanently in positive territory, completing a second consecutive rising session. The next resistance is identified at 49.96 euros.
According to an announcement by OTE (+0.05%), “on Friday, 30/10/2026, it will publish its third-quarter financial results before the start of the ASE session. Management will hold on the same day, after the above publication of the results and at 13:00 (Greece) /12:00 (Europe) /11:00 (United Kingdom) /07:00 (Eastern US), a conference call with analysts and investors to discuss these results”.
What analysts say
“Muted expectations for short-term monetary policy tightening by the Fed are being overshadowed by pressure on European bonds and the depreciation of the euro,” notes Eurobank Equities.
“Global uncertainties remain, keeping oil prices at high levels and bringing inflation concerns into focus, ahead of central bank meetings later this month. In the absence of significant domestic catalysts, the Greek market will likely continue to move in close correlation with international markets. However, the intense pressure on bank stocks during the last two sessions could trigger a moderate recovery,” estimates Beta Sec.
“The GI is now in a critical technical area, while banks remain the main factor shaping sentiment and mood. The international environment continues to require caution, with high bond yields remaining a limiting factor for valuations. For the week that has started, bond yields, the course of oil and expectations for monetary policy remain the main external factors to monitor,” emphasizes Kyklos AXEPEY.
“Volatility has the upper hand in the domestic market. The latest pull at month-end, with the ‘tails’ of purchases due to rebalancing and the close of the 9-month period, confused things quite a bit, according to Ilias Zacharakis.
The start of the month once again brought out significant sellers, especially in the banking sector, something that, as was logical, also affected the rest of the market.
The foreign markets are “helping” the Greek market, as they are moving with upward dispositions. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether we should view both the GI autonomously in relation to foreign markets, as well as individual stocks or sectors.
The correction of the DTR, combined with the relatively improved picture in small and mid capitalization, but also in stocks that had been pressured recently, closed to some extent the gap that had opened significantly.
The market wants to correct, at best, in time, while volatility causes many to make wrong moves. Nevertheless, each person’s strategy should not change under any circumstances.
The movement of bond yields to multi-year highs, alongside the persistence of oil at high levels, even though we are not seeing the flare-up everyone assumes, significantly affects inflation on the one hand. On the other hand, however, the markets do not seem to “bat an eye”, as they continue to stand close to their highs.
The strong dollar further troubles Europe, especially with regard to inflation, since oil is priced in dollars.
Greece had the given fact that there were significant inflows, due to its inclusion in developed markets. This has been completed and may justify a price correction or, at least, a time correction, before the market resumes its upward course again.
Technically and based on the system we follow, as long as the GI maintains the level of 2,604 points on a closing basis, it remains “Long”, while it has created significant resistance in the zone of 2,670 – 2,680 points. A break of 2,604 points may bring us to the zone of 2,575 – 2,565 points, a level at which defenses may again appear.
If we see this level lost as well, then we could not rule out a hasty move toward the 2,400-point zone, a level that has significant medium-term supports and from which it is very likely we will see a new upward move.
In this scenario, the move will happen very quickly and this, in any case, will be positive.
The most important thing is that everything shows that, ahead of us and regardless of the period’s volatility, we have a very good upward course in the next medium-term period.
The positive thing so far is that the market is not moving all together and we have stocks that are in a different phase.
Those who in the rebalancing, or even earlier, created liquidity, would do well to preserve it until we see the market’s short-term intentions, while at the same time waiting for volatility to calm down.
October, statistically, brings corrections, which usually also constitute buying opportunities, as the last two months of the year follow and the book closings, which for Foreigners are on November 30 and for Greeks on the last working day of the year,” reminds Mr. Zacharakis (chairman and chief executive officer of Fast Finance AEPEY).