KARAMANLIS: Kostas Karamanlis will deliver a speech sharply critical of the West and taking aim at the government over its stance towards Ankara at an event marking Ohi Day, organised by the Association of Retired Army Officers at the War Museum on Sunday.
The former prime minister, the column understands, will express his outright opposition to those who argue that “we need to reach an understanding with the Turks”, since, as he will say, apart from one or two issues of minor importance, our neighbours to the east are threatening Greece’s established “red lines” on everything else.
He will also take apart Turkey’s claims one by one, while condemning Europe and our Western allies for applying double standards to Ukraine and Cyprus.
Mr Karamanlis will also address the latest development involving the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, which he considers “unwelcome” because, although it has no legal effect, it demonstrates Ankara’s show of force and ambitions for the wider eastern Mediterranean region.
It is worth noting that Antonis Samaras will also attend the event, seeking to dispel rumours that relations between him and Mr Karamanlis have cooled.
KALOGEROPOULOS: “We got screwed.” With those two words, New Democracy MP Dim itris Kalog eropoulos commented on the latest developments concerning the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, puncturing the government’s narrative.
Prompting fresh… panic at Maximos, the blue-suited MP got a laugh in the MegaNews television studio. Asked by the journalist, “What did you say?”, he replied: “I said it in Greek. What can I say?”
Mr Kalogeropoulos’s line recalled one used by Theodora Tzakri in January 2024, when she was an MP for SYRIZA, at a party event. “The truth is that when it comes to farmers, as the saying goes, ‘we got screwed’,” she had said.
Leaving those present stunned…
P.S. The New Democracy MP later tried to walk back his words, describing them in a post as “ill-judged”. The damage, of course, had been done.
ENERGY: Just how far removed people in Brussels are from the reality of the energy crisis is clear from the following. The next Council of Energy Ministers meeting is scheduled for 29 October. What is on the agenda?
Brace yourselves: Network charges, Europe’s future after 2030 and, at the end of the meeting, a session on winter are all on the agenda.
In short, if the 27 have time — and once they have dealt with the energy problem for the next decade — they will spend a little time on the problems of this winter….
BANKS: The sector added €9.3bn in foreign government bonds to its portfolio in just six months. According to the Financial Stability Report of the Bank of Greece, banking groups’ holdings of bonds issued by other countries reached €42.9bn in June, up 27.8% from December.
That is about 45% of their debt securities portfolio, compared with roughly 36% in Greek government bonds. The accumulation has taken place as yields rise across the board. The ECB has raised interest rates by 50 basis points since June, the US 10-year yield reached 5.3%, and the spread between Greek 10-year bonds and Bunds widened to 90 basis points from 59 at the start of the year.
The Bank of Greece notes that 83% of foreign government bonds are held to maturity and measured at amortised cost. As a result, price falls do not feed through to earnings unless the securities are sold before maturity. Banks also hedge part of their interest-rate risk using derivatives.
The sensitivity is nevertheless significant. For the entire debt securities and derivatives portfolio, each one-basis-point rise in interest rates equates to a potential loss of €38.8m.
BANKS II: Yesterday’s list of the biggest fallers had a strong banking hue. Five banks were among the ten worst performers, and they also accounted for most of the trading turnover.
Piraeus suffered the steepest fall. Its shares dropped 6.02% to €9.60, with €49.2m worth of shares traded. Alpha Bank followed, down 5.04% to €4.278. A total of 9.6m shares changed hands, the highest volume in the group. Eurobank fell 4.34% to €4.32, with 8.7m shares traded and turnover of €38m.
Optima moved in the same direction, falling 4.33% to €13.27. National Bank limited its losses to 3.58%, closing at €15.91, but recorded the highest turnover on the list for the session, at €56.7m. In total, the five banks in the top ten accounted for nearly €189m in trades, or 56% of the total.
The sector’s decline was in line with that of its European peers, with the Euro Stoxx Banks index losing almost 3%. Greece — as usual — “overreacted”, given its stronger performance so far this year. European banks have come under pressure in recent weeks as rising yields and concerns about France have led investors to reassess the best-performing sector in the Old Continent.
P.S. Lamda Development also made the top ten fallers, dropping 4.35% to €5.94. As we reported yesterday, a new short seller had appeared in the stock. Qube Research & Technologies has disclosed a net short position of 0.50226%.
BANKS-DIVIDENDS: CrediaPantelakis, however, expects the four systemic banks to increase shareholder distributions over 2026-28, following the SSM’s “green light”, as their profitability grows and their capital remains strong.
According to the brokerage, Eurobank’s distribution per share will rise from €0.20 for the 2025 financial year to €0.32 in 2028 (+60%). Piraeus’s will increase from €0.48 to €0.73 (+52%), and Alpha Bank’s from €0.22 to €0.30 (+36%). National Bank’s 2025 distribution was €1.09 and included an extraordinary €300m distribution through a share buyback. It is therefore expected to fall to €0.91 this year, then rise to €1.16 in 2027 and €1.28 in 2028.
The increases are underpinned by growth in normalised net profit. For 2028, this is estimated at €1.87bn for Eurobank, €1.56bn for National Bank, €1.51bn for Piraeus and €1.19bn for Alpha. National Bank distributed a total of €1bn from its 2025 earnings, equivalent to 86% of its profit. The other three banks distributed 55%.
This year, the banks are forecasting distributions of 55-60% of earnings and plan to pay interim dividends in November-December. Alpha has already announced an interim dividend of €0.055 per share. The final payout ratio for the four systemic banks will be set at the end of the year.
The brokerage believes there is clear scope for this to rise, particularly at banks with larger capital buffers. The CET1 ratio ranges from 12.8% at Piraeus to 17.3% at National Bank. National Bank’s business plan implies regular distributions averaging about 65% a year, excluding any special distributions.
BANKS-NPEs: The increase in loans with uncertain collectability was the main reason for the rise in banks’ stock of non-performing exposures (NPEs) in the first half of the year. Such loans increased by €452m over the six-month period, accounting for most of the €528m increase in NPEs.
As previously reported, Eurobank reclassified as non-performing exposures on 30 June performing step-up loans with a Swiss franc clause, deemed doubtful to collect, with a carrying value before provisions of about €330m. It recorded an impairment provision of €100m after assessing the borrowers’ financial distress (Eurobank takes the first step on step-up loans).
Using its accumulated stock of provisions, Eurobank took a clean approach, assessing borrowers’ ability to pay from the outset (based on declared income). The other banks focused on the success of loan conversions; we will learn the outcome when fourth-quarter results are announced.
That is also when we will find out how much NPEs ultimately increased.
LAMDA: Market sources describe the departure of Odysseas Athanasiou as chief executive of Lamda as a certainty, while the successor’s name remains a closely guarded secret.
According to sources close to the column, however, the successor is a Greek woman based in Switzerland (note: she may be a Greek woman working at a major Swiss bank). She is expected to take up the role in the new year, following a smooth transition.
Lamda is at a turning point after absorbing this year the losses caused by the construction cost of the Riviera Tower, which exceeded the prices secured in pre-sales.
Management had acknowledged the loss, albeit indirectly, in spring 2025, when it announced a further extension to the project’s delivery date, with the possible activation of relevant penalty clauses.
Analysts say the situation should begin to ease next year as profitable apartment sales at the Little Athens complex make a larger contribution to the overall mix.
It remains unclear whether penalties were triggered by the delay in the Tower’s delivery, and how much they will weigh on results after this year.
In any case, the reported successor to Athanasiou will be able to draw on the current management’s actions to create the conditions for showing improvement in her first 100 days in “office”.
LAMDA II: The market is also focused on the transaction with ION. On the one hand, because of the considerable price (note: €450m) for plots where demand is low, given the plan to develop office complexes; on the other, because Ellinikon was to use the €450m as working capital to develop new residential projects.
The aim was to halt home pre-sales and mitigate the risk of shrinking profit margins if construction costs subsequently rose because of rampant inflation.