COST OF LIVING: One of the biggest contradictions in the Greek economy is reflected in the figures published yesterday.
Eurostat announced that inflation in Greece reached 5.6% in October, up from 5.1% in September. That was the third-highest rate in the eurozone, alongside Italy, against an average of 4%.
On the same day, the Fiscal Council’s autumn report described two very different realities.
One is that of the state. VAT receipts in the first half of the year reached €14.58bn, up €1.69bn, or 13.1%, on a year earlier.
To be fair, that increase is not down solely, or even mainly, to high prices. Economic growth, better tax compliance and some one-off receipts have also played an important part.
But there is something else more interesting.
According to figures from the ministry cited by the Council, inflation will contribute to a 4.9 percentage point reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2026. That is more than the contribution from primary surpluses (3.6) and growth (2.8). By inflating nominal GDP, it improves one of the economy’s most important indicators.
The reality facing households, however, is entirely different.
Real pay rose by just 0.1% in 2025, compared with 1.8% in the eurozone, while the European Commission forecasts another 0.1% increase this year.
Nor is that unrelated to the fact that private consumption rose by just 0.9% in the first half of the year.
In other words, inflation helps debt indicators and state coffers far more than pay rises help workers’ pockets.
COST OF LIVING II: The figures above also cast a shadow over the government’s forecast of a €701, or 4.64%, increase in average annual disposable income in 2027. It sounds impressive, but there are some serious caveats.
First, the government ran a simulation of equivalised disposable income that includes tax measures, benefits and projected increases in wages and pensions.
Second, the €701 figure is measured against the 2026 baseline scenario. If this year’s additional measures are also taken into account, the actual extra boost in 2027 falls to €497, or around 3.2%.
Third, and most importantly, these are nominal increases. The government forecasts inflation of 2.4% in 2027 and therefore expects incomes to rise in real terms.
The IMF, however, puts inflation at 3.6% in its latest forecast. And the higher prices ultimately rise, the smaller the share of promised increases that will translate into purchasing power.
Why mention this? Because yesterday also brought the results of the US midterm elections, where the cost of living — driven mainly by the war in Iran and its impact on energy prices, as well as tariffs — was among the factors behind the crushing defeat of Trump’s Republicans.
Once again, then, high prices have proved to be a “killer” of governments, whatever their political colour. It will be difficult, we agree, for the government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis to contend with inflationary pressures of this kind.
But if Kyriakos and his team do not find some remedy — because, whatever they say, none has been found so far — the winter will be harsh and will have an impact in the final run-up to the election.
NEW DEMOCRACY: A major effort is under way to organise Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s visit to Messinia today as effectively as possible. He will address the conference of the Central Union of Municipalities of Greece.
Communications between New Democracy’s central offices and local party officials are constant, and there is a lot at stake in the home turf of Antonis Samaras.
Maximos Mansion wants to show that, regardless of personalities, the New Democracy government is taking concrete action to improve people’s quality of life.
To that end, the prime minister will visit completed and ongoing projects, including a hydroponic greenhouse tomato-production unit in Oichalia, Kalamata airport and the construction site for the Kalamata–Methoni road.
He will also attend the inauguration of the Kalamata Wastewater Treatment Plant’s Solar Sludge Drying Unit and the signing of a programme contract for the construction of a prison in Megalopoli.
The former prime minister’s response will be watched with interest; he has made clear that he intends to make his presence felt at every opportunity.
Especially in his own ... backyard.
KAIRIDIS: New Democracy parliamentary spokesperson and professor Dimetris Kairidis was asked about the Republicans’ defeat in the US midterm elections.
“There were some people here in Greece who thought they could build a political career as proxies for Trumpism, as home-grown Trumpists. Panos Kammenos, for example, must be in a state of deep distress today, I imagine, or Velopoulos, who made his well-known U-turn. I don’t know whether Latinopoulou and the others will follow him,” he said (to Parapolitika).
As is well known, “the others” could easily include New Democracy figures, although he chose to leave them ... out.
PLEVRIS: One thing leads to another, and the deterioration in Greek-Libyan relations following the latest developments over the illegal memorandum is also fuelling a rise in migration.
Migration and Asylum Minister Thanos Plevris highlighted Libya’s lack of cooperation in managing migrant flows to Crete during a television interview (with ERT).
He said Libya’s stance had been particularly evident in recent days, since the start of November, and that all responses by the Greek side remained on the table, including the suspension of asylum if necessary.
According to the minister, pressure on Crete has persisted since August, peaked in October and continued into the first days of November, with considerable flows over the past three to four days.
MARIS: Businessman Dimitris Maris, who has shareholding and management ties to 24 Media Symmetochiki SA, has set up a family office with share capital of €1m.
Malta-based “Deep Investments Limited” owns 91.27% of 24 Media. Its sole shareholder is Dimitrios Maris, who is listed in the General Commercial Registry as having signed 24 Media’s latest financial statements as chairman and chief executive.
Under the articles of association of the newly established family office on Vasilissis Sofias Avenue, named MDSK, Mr Maris owns 100% of the shares. The company’s sole purpose is to administer and manage the assets and investments held directly or indirectly by its founder and members of his family.
Dimitrios Maris will chair the first board of MDKS Family Office, with Polytemi Dalamaga as vice-chair and Loukas Karetzopoulos as a member. Karetzopoulos is also group finance director of 24 Media Group.
SPACE HELLAS: The company reacted strongly to a report linking a letter from the Capital Market Commission to accounting issues involving Singular. The listed company issued a statement describing the report as “malicious” and “misleading”, while reserving all its legal rights.
This column understands that the Commission did indeed send the company a letter. Sources close to the Hellenic Capital Market Commission say, however, that it was part of a “routine inspection process” under which about 50 letters are sent to an equal number of listed companies each year.
In recent months, the same sources say, attention has also been focused on the IT sector and the reporting of intangible assets.
BANKS: European bank shares rebounded strongly yesterday as the Democrats’ sweeping victory — the blue wave — in the US midterm elections eased the political uncertainty that had weighed on markets in recent weeks.
The Stoxx 600 Banks index rose by as much as 4.5%, its strongest one-day performance since May. HSBC and Banco Santander were among the main contributors, while Lion Finance Group and Raiffeisen Bank International were among the biggest gainers, rising about 5.8% and 6%, respectively.
As Bloomberg notes, the rally marks a turnaround in sentiment after pressure had pushed the sector into a correction from its September record highs. Rising bond yields had raised concerns about loan-book quality and potential defaults.
US bond yields also fell as investors judged that the new political landscape would curb the Trump administration’s scope for tax and fiscal measures. Yields on UK, French and Italian bonds also declined.
Ulrich Urbahn, head of strategy at Berenberg, believes bank shares had come under excessive pressure ahead of the elections, despite the strong fundamentals of European banks.
He noted that reduced uncertainty had triggered a strong relief rally, in a move he described as “sell the rumour, buy the fact”.
Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY, said that improving financial conditions and broader-based economic growth were supporting the financial sector.
He added that a steep yield curve does not necessarily boost banks’ profitability when lending activity remains subdued and credit risks are rising.
Despite the recent correction, the European banking index is still up about 11% since the start of the year.
BANKS II: Greek banks joined the rally, as expected. Alpha Bank, which is due to announce its strategic plan for the coming years today, rose 5.1% to €9.82.
Next came NBG, which announced its nine-month results after the market closed yesterday. It ended the day at €16.60, up 4.5%. Eurobank posted a more modest rise, to €4.60 (+1.5%), while Piraeus pared its gains towards the close, ending at €9.82 (+0.97%), amid reports of a share placement.
It is worth comparing prices with 18 September, when the rebalancing took place ahead of the Stock Exchange’s inclusion in developed markets. Despite yesterday’s gains, none of the four banks is trading above its level that day. Only Alpha Bank has returned exactly to its starting point. Eurobank is 1.50% below, Piraeus 4.57% and National Bank 5.14%.
Over the year, of course, the picture remains impressive. Piraeus leads with gains of 44.62%. Eurobank is second, up 34.11% (from €3.43 to €4.60), and Alpha Bank third, up 32.12% (from €3.58 to €4.73).
National Bank is up 27.69% (from €13.00 to €16.60).
PIRAEUS: From the 14.18% stake shown on the official share register on the Euronext Athens website, major shareholder John Paulson announced yesterday that he now holds 8.4%.
He did not disclose the exact number of shares he sold yesterday. Verified information, however, indicates that 25 million shares changed hands, equivalent to about 2% of Piraeus. This means there were also other sell-offs in the intervening period.
For the rest, Mr Paulson says he remains positive about the bank’s future prospects and attributes the reduction in his stake to a “portfolio rebalancing”.
QUEST: It seems experienced Theodoros Fessas had an ace up his ... sleeve in case the sale of ACS did not go ahead.
Quest announced yesterday that it had begun the process for a public offering of shares in Uni Systems and its listing on the Stock Exchange. Yet last April, Fessas described a stand-alone listing for Uni Systems as “our last resort”.
At the time, he explained that parallel trading in a parent company and subsidiary confuses investors, adding that the strategy of avoiding such moves “will not change”.
Six months later, the “last resort” has become ... the first choice.
Quest’s own announcement, however, says preparations for the listing are almost complete. That presumably means plan B was in the works well before the agreement with GLS officially fell through.
Uni Systems, meanwhile, has strong figures to support its valuation: sales of €268m in 2025 (up 11%), EBITDA of €28.5m (up 22%), an order backlog of €671m and almost half of sales generated abroad.
QUEST II: What is interesting is that the listing will not be accompanied by a capital increase. The shares being offered belong to Quest, which will receive the proceeds.
That will give it significant liquidity to fund, for example, new minority stakes such as its 12.56% holding in Fourlis, and to buy back 20% of ACS for €37m.
The issue of timing should not be overlooked either.
The Recovery and Resilience Facility ends this year, and Uni Systems’ revenue from the wider public sector reached €61.3m in 2025. About 63% of that revenue was linked to the Fund.
Management is now banking on international markets, defence, the private sector and new public-sector project opportunities worth about €400m.
On the other hand, the departures of Epsilon Net and Entersoft have thinned out the IT sector, so a well-known major player will step in to fill the gap.
The biggest question, however, is the valuation. Quest is worth about €800m on the market. The initial agreement with GLS valued ACS at €370m. So what are Uni Systems and the other businesses worth?
The listing price — and the share’s performance after listing — will provide a first, tangible benchmark. If its valuation is relatively high, it will strengthen the case that Quest is cheap. If it is low, different questions will arise.
And so there is the “confusion” Fessas himself warned about. Only now he will have to deal with it ...