Eurobank Equities is proceeding with a significant upgrade of its estimates for the two Greek refineries, assessing that the recent geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East did not simply create a temporary spike in refining margins, but confirmed a new, higher profitability base for the sector.
The brokerage upgrades its recommendation for HelleniQ Energy to “Buy” from “Hold”, raising the target price to 12.6 euros from 9.4 euros, while maintaining Motor Oil as a top choice (“top pick”), increasing the target price to 53.2 euros from 39.1 euros.
Eurobank Equities appears noticeably more optimistic about the prospects of the two Greek refining groups, estimating that the market continues to underestimate the structural improvement in profit margins and, by extension, their profitability. According to its new analysis, the temporary surge in refining margins caused by the crisis between Iran and the United States may have receded after diplomatic developments, however the levels at which they continue to move remain significantly higher than the historical average.
The brokerage estimates that the Greek refineries, thanks to their high exposure to diesel and jet fuel, will achieve in 2026 an average refining margin of about 17 dollars per barrel, that is, 2 to 3 dollars higher than in 2025. This translates into operating profits (EBITDA) in the region of 1.3 billion euros for both HelleniQ Energy and Motor Oil, a level about 30% higher than the forecasts prevailing at the beginning of the year.
However, the most important finding of the report concerns the medium-term picture of the sector. Eurobank Equities believes that refining margins are not going to return to the pre-2022 levels of 6-7 dollars per barrel, which many analysts still use as a reference point for the market cycle. On the contrary, it estimates that the new “normality” is taking shape at low- to mid-double-digit margin levels, a development attributed to steady demand for middle distillate products, such as diesel and jet fuel, as well as to the chronically limited refining capacity in Europe.
The analysis underlines that the European market continues to depend increasingly on imported fuels transported through longer and more vulnerable trade routes, a factor that supports the profit margins of modern and complex refineries, such as the Greek ones.
Based on this view, Eurobank Equities significantly revises its estimates upward. For HelleniQ Energy it increases the forecast for 2026 adjusted EBITDA by 35%, to 1.3 billion euros, while it also upgrades by 15% and 10% respectively the forecasts for 2027 and 2028, to about 1.1 billion euros.
Accordingly, for Motor Oil it forecasts EBITDA of about 1.3 billion euros in 2026 and about 1.1 billion euros for the next two years, considering that refining margins will stand at 16 dollars per barrel in 2026 and will normalize at about 13 dollars in the medium term.
Special reference is made to HelleniQ Energy, for which it is pointed out that its profitability does not depend exclusively on refining. Eurobank Equities estimates that about 500 million euros of the operating profits of the downstream sector come from activities such as trading, the supply chain, logistics and the commercial network, a fact that limits the cyclicality of results and justifies a higher valuation compared with a “pure” refining group.
Despite the significant rise recorded by the shares of the two companies, the brokerage believes that they continue to trade at attractive valuations, lower than the historical average, while at the same time offering high dividend yields and maintaining strong balance sheets. As it notes, the market has not yet fully priced in the permanent upgrade in the profitability of the Greek refineries, a fact that leaves significant room for further upside in their shares.