Pantelakis Securities describes a strong picture for the refining sector in Europe, maintaining an overweight recommendation for both Motor Oil and Helleniq Energy, revising its target prices upward.
The brokerage raises the target price for Motor Oil to 51.2 euros from 40 euros (upside potential 33%), and for Helleniq Energy to 12.5 euros from 10 euros (upside potential about 13%), maintaining Motor Oil as the top pick in the sector.
According to the analysis, refining margins recently surged due to supply disruptions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Russian refineries, which led to a significant reduction in diesel and jet fuel inventories in Europe, to historically low levels.
Although margins have retreated from recent highs following the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, they remain at particularly high levels, with demand appearing resilient despite higher energy costs and the unstable macroeconomic environment.
Pantelakis revises upward its estimates for refining margins for 2026–2027.
After strong first-quarter results, with refining margins at $20.5/barrel for Helleniq Energy and $18.9/barrel for Motor Oil, Pantelakis Securities revises upward its estimates for 2026–2027, raising margins to $17.4/bbl and $15.2/bbl respectively for Helleniq Energy (+16% and +9%), versus $16.7/bbl and $14.8/bbl for Motor Oil (+9% and unchanged).
As a result, it forecasts EBITDA above 1.3 billion euros for Helleniq Energy and above 1.4 billion euros for Motor Oil this year, before a gradual normalization at high but more sustainable levels of 1.1 - 1.3 billion euros in the two-year period 2027-8, also supported by “green” investments .