Austria's Social Democrats eye poll win

When Austria's conservative People's party bolted from its grand coalition government with the Social Democrats two months ago, forcing snap elections, party leaders expected to gain from the disarray among their erstwhile partner and regain the chancellorship lost in 2006.

But, as the September 28 general election looms, the formerly trailing Social Democrats have closed the gap. According to the latest opinion polls, the party is now widely expected to defend the narrow lead it gained in 2006.

That turnround is largely attributable to Werner Faymann, the new party leader. Mr Faymann replaced Alfred Gusenbauer, Austria's unpopular chancellor, earlier this year and has turned into a vote-winner thanks to his charisma and promises to boost public spending.

Opinion polls show the Social Democrats running 1 to 2 percentage points ahead of the People's party, although some surveys suggest the two are neck and neck at about 28 per cent. Mr Faymann's ratings far exceed those of Wilhelm Molterer, the dour People's party leader and finance minister – not least thanks to the unflinching support of the Kronen Zeitung, Austria's dominant daily newspaper.

Although inexperienced in national politics, Mr Faymann, the former head of housing on the Vienna city council, has shown a deft populist touch. Since early this month he has dominated political coverage after unveiling a five-point plan to fight rising prices, one of voters' key concerns.

Mr Faymann's proposals include abolishing university tuition fees and halving value added tax on food to 5 per cent. The highly popular food measure, due to be debated at a special session of parliament on Wednesday, has wrong-footed the People's party, which has warned the move will raise the budget deficit and impede a more substantial income tax reduction scheduled for 2010.

"[Mr] Faymann has benefited from being relatively unknown at a time of popular disenchantment with other politicians. And especially because people hope he is different from Mr Gusenbauer," said Erhard Busek, a former deputy chancellor who is the president of the European Forum Alpbach, a think-tank event.

"He has also won over most of the media, especially the Kronen Zeitung, and has demonstrated a certain popular touch."

The Social Democrats have been boosted by a professional campaign with snappy slogans and attractive posters. Mr Faymann's greater approachability, when compared with his stiff predecessor, has lifted morale. He has also made efforts to woo the unions.

All that is a far cry from Mr Molterer, who has faced stiff criticism from within his own party over his poor television appearances and confusing campaign.

He has tried to recover ground with populist ideas, including the introduction of a 13th month child allowance and higher subsidies for care of the elderly. But his initiatives remain much more modest than those of the Social Democrats.

The election result will also be influenced by a change in the voting age to 16 from 18, which was approved after Austria's last general election two years ago. The inclusion of younger voters is expected to benefit the Social Democrats more than the People's party, although forecasts about their participation remain sketchy. Also unclear is the extent to which younger voters may be attracted to either of the far-right parties, whose massive boost in support has largely been fuelled by disenchantment with the mainstream parties after almost two years of an unproductive grand coalition.

The Freedom party and the Alliance for Austria (BZO), which both advocate tougher rules on immigrants and asylum seekers, are stealing votes from the Social Democrats and the People's party – but especially the latter.

The Freedom party, led by firebrand Heinz-Christian Strache, could double its share of votes to about 20 per cent, while the smaller BZO, under Jorg Haider, could reach about 8 per cent.

Mr Faymann is not yet a shoo-in. Voters, potentially spooked by the recent turmoil in financial markets, could yet turn against his unabashed populism and prefer Mr Molterer's more cautious approach.

Assuming, though, he comes out on top, Mr Faymann wants to form another grand coalition with the People's party and has avoided suggestions of a deal with the far right.

If the two biggest parties join forces again, Mr Molterer's days as People's party leader are numbered. His likely replacement will be Josef Proll, the farming and environment minister, who is a rising star in the People's party and is known to work well with MrFaymann.

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