China expected to lead on climate change by 2020

China will be at the forefront of combating climate change by 2020 if it meets government targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the International Energy Agency suggests.

The finding contrasts sharply with the widespread image internationally of China as a country of inefficient, carbon-intensive industry that is resisting international calls to curb its emissions.

Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, said: "If China reaches its targets - and in the past, it has reached most of its targets of this kind - its emissions [growth] will have declined so much by 2020 that it will be the country that has achieved the largest emission reaductions. China will be at the forefront of combating climate change."

China's strong showing in curbing emissions will make negotiations on a new global agreement on climate change easier.

Under any such agreement, which governments are hoping to forge at a conference in Copenhagen in December, emerging economies would be required to take certain "measurable, reportable and verifiable" actions on CO2.

These would not amount to absolute cuts in emissions, but would be designed to curb the growth of emissions, ensuring greenhouse gas output did not reach the levels expected under "business as usual" conditions.

China's actions, if followed up with further tough targets, would be enough to meet these requirements.

However, Beijing may still hold out on another element that developed countries would like to see as part of a Copenhagen deal - a commitment on when the country's emissions would peak, and a commitment on a global target of halving emissions by 2050.

India surprised the world last week by signalling that it would set national numerical targets for curbing emissions for the first time, after insisting that it would not.

But China recently rebuffed western demands by saying its emissions would peak "some time before 2050" - a date too distant to satisfy developed countries, and one that scientists regard as disastrous if dangerous climate change is to be avoided.

Mr Birol said China was doing the right things to curb emissions. "China has declared three very important targets: to increase the share of renewables and nuclear [power] in electricity generation, an energy intensity target, restructuring and rebalancing their economy," he said.

The targets are part of Beijing's current five-year plan. Future five-year plans would need to incorporate further stringent measures if the country's momentum on carbon-curbing is to be maintained to 2020.

China is also directing about a third of its economic stimulus to green ends, according to research by the bank HSBC.

The IEA's research on China was part of a broader study of climate change undertaken as part of the organisation's annual World Energy Outlook, to be published in November. The excerpt has been published early to give negotiators time to digest the contents before Copenhagen.

Mr Birol also urged developed countries to provide financial help to poorer nations to cut their greenhouse gas emissions.

Many developing countries are working on plans to curb emissions similar to those of China, called "nationally appropriate mitigation actions".

"Many countries have have NAMAs. To make them happen it is not a bad idea that those numbers are co-financed by OECD countries," he said.

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