Jeb Bush boldly semi-declares ambition

Among split infinitives, "to actively explore" must surely rival Star Trek's "to boldly go".

Though the latest in a long line to use it, Jeb Bush has been roundly mocked for deploying the cliche. The puzzle is why more accurate variations are never put to use.

Before Mr Bush's semi-declaration on Facebook, he ranked as one of the longest running passive explorers of US presidential runs in modern history.

The next White House election will be the third in a row in which he might have run (to be fair, 2008 would have been too close to George W's tenure). After Tuesday's social media posting, Mr Bush will presumably move on "to officially declare" some time next year.

Thankfully for Mr Bush, many of his putative Republican rivals - who number around 20 - will never move beyond the passive stage.

That almost certainly includes Mitt Romney, the failed 2012 candidate, whom some Republicans want to redraft. Others, such as Ted Cruz, the thunderbolt from Texas, and Rick Santorum, the social conservative from Pennsylvania, have been aggressively exploring whether to run for the White House since they left high school.

Then there is a third group - the "to profitably pretends" - who will run without much chance of winning in the hope of boosting their brand value. These could include Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, now TV host, Donald Trump, the property magnate with remarkable hair, and Ben Carson, an African-American neurosurgeon.

The real threat to Mr Bush comes from the "to plausibly attempt" group, which is longer than anyone can recall. These include Chris Christie, the much slimmed down governor of New Jersey, Scott Walker, the re-elected governor of Wisconsin, Rand Paul, the senator from Kentucky, Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida, Paul Ryan, the former vice-presidential nominee, Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, Mike Pence, governor of Indiana, Rick Perry, the former governor of Texas, and also Mr Cruz.

All but one - Mr Paul, whose father Ron, has twice run for president - are self-made politicians. All but one - Mr Perry, who stepped down last month - are currently serving in office, either as governors or national legislators. All but one - Mr Christie, who is a blue-state Republican - boast of strong conservative credentials.

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Most importantly, he is widely perceived to be a liberal by conservative Republicans, who tend to dominate the early nominating contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The much-hated mainstream media describe Mr Bush as a "moderate", which is code for what most Republicans dislike.

What might count as Mr Bush's strong points in a general election, his strong record on education reform in Florida, for example, and his openness to immigration, might prove fatal in a primary.

The unusually wide gulf between what the Republican base wants, and what the US floating voter will tolerate, is clearly on Mr Bush's mind. Last week he said a Republican nominee might "have to lose the primary to win the general". It is unclear quite how he would square that circle.

Then there is his money record. Democrats skewered Mr Romney in 2012 as a plutocrat with a penchant for offshore bank accounts. Since stepping down as Florida governor, Mr Bush has made millions advising investment banks, including the notorious Lehman Brothers that collapsed in 2008, and investing in private equity ventures. He would obviously be hard pushed to deny his plutocracy.

Thankfully, on this, Mr Bush would be evenly matched by his likely general election opponent, Hillary Clinton. Not only does Mrs Clinton belong to a family political brand, she is also perceived to be very adept at making money.

She, too, has a knack for split infinitives. No one has a clue when Mrs Clinton will begin actively exploring a presidential bid. Most, however, would agree that her "to endlessly prevaricate" phase is running out of juice.

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