Bibi's misleading Congress clapometer

If you measure Benjamin Netanyahu's performance by the applause, his speech to the US Congress hit the mark. Judged by its outcome, Bibi's audacity may look very different in hindsight. The Israeli prime minister's address, which broke precedent on how to treat a senior ally, marked a nadir in his already terrible relations with President Barack Obama. Mr Netanyahu was clearly looking to 2017 when Mr Obama steps down. He was also hoping to boost his own re-election prospects later this month. But his speech paid little heed to longer-term concerns about Israel's waning clout in Washington DC.

No lobby group can match the reputation of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee. Yet AIPAC's influence has declined since Mr Netanyahu regained his job in 2009. To judge by the absence of more than 50 Democratic lawmakers on Tuesday, the speech is unlikely to reverse that. One measure of AIPAC's clout is the number of US lawmakers who attend its annual conference, which Mr Netanyahu addressed on Monday. On some issues, such as opposition to Palestinian statehood, it can garner the signatures of three quarters of Congress within 48 hours.

But AIPAC's recent batting average is far less impressive. Mr Netanyahu's speech, which called for Congress to enact a fresh layer of sanctions that would sabotage Mr Obama's Iran nuclear talks, offers a clear test of AIPAC's influence. The group has been lobbying for the sanctions bill for more than a year. Mr Obama and John Kerry, the secretary of state, have so far persuaded Congress to hold off until the outcome of the Iran talks is known. The final deadline is June. Following Mr Netanyahu's speech, Congress looks less likely to pull the plug than before.

Even among Democratic lawmakers who did not boycott the event, there was criticism of Mr Netanyahu's message. Nancy Pelosi, the House minority leader, who has a strong pro-Israel record, said she was near to tears as she listened to Mr Netanyahu's words, which were an "insult to the intelligence of the United States". Dianne Feinstein, another stalwart supporter of Israel, dismissed Mr Netanyahu's speech as "arrogant". In private, even a number of Republicans were critical. What are the chances Aipac turns Mr Netanyahu's rallying cry into action?

Having so far failed to push the sanctions bill through Congress, it seems unlikely Aipac will succeed just as the Iran talks near their end game. The group has been defeated on Capitol Hill before. In 1981, Ronald Reagan ignored AIPAC's objections to push ahead with the sale of the Airborne Warning and Control System (Awacs) to Saudi Arabia. In the mid-1990s it failed to upend Bill Clinton's support for Yitzhak Rabin in the peace agreement with Yassir Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organisation.

But in most cases AIPAC's view prevailed. That is no longer a given. Big majorities of US public opinion support Mr Obama's efforts to reach a deal with Iran. Large majorities also oppose new Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. US Jewish voters ignored Mr Netanyahu's support for Mitt Romney in 2012's presidential election. Seventy per cent voted for Mr Obama. This was down from the 78 per cent of the Jewish vote Mr Obama received in 2008 but in line with the average for Democratic candidates in the last generation. It came after four years of withering Aipac criticism of Mr Obama.

Jewish Americans have as complex reasons for their votes as anyone else. But Mr Obama appears to have a better grasp of their mood than Mr Netanyahu. In 2013, Mr Obama asked Congress to authorise his threat to bomb Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime after it used chemical weapons. Aipac was on his side. The vote, which never took place, looked certain to fail. Congress knew then there was little public appetite for US wars in the Middle East or beyond. Little has changed. Mr Netanyahu - and Aipac - are implicitly betting otherwise. Mr Obama argues that the US should give peace a chance. So far, the US public appears to agree with him.

© The Financial Times Limited 2015. All rights reserved.
FT and Financial Times are trademarks of the Financial Times Ltd.
Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in any way.
Euro2day.gr is solely responsible for providing this translation and the Financial Times Limited does not accept any liability for the accuracy or quality of the translation