* OPEC may surprise market by increasing output -J.P. Morgan
* Technicals show U.S. crude back down at $88
* Coming Up: Euroilstock refinery output for Dec.
By Alejandro Barbajosa
SINGAPORE, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Oil was on track for a weekly
drop of more than 2 percent on Friday, trading near its lowest
in ten days, after U.S. inventories rose across all categories
and on speculation monetary tightening by China would restrain
demand.
Brent crude for March inched 4 cents higher to
$96.62 a barrel after touching $95.43 on Thursday, the lowest
intraday price since Jan. 11. A week ago the front month
contract touched $99.20, the highest level since 2008.
Consumers represented by the International Energy Agency
(IEA) have voiced concern about the potential effect of rising
crude prices on the global economic recovery, stepping up
pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Countries (OPEC)
to raise production.
"We acknowledge the perception of a rapid move to a
triple-digit price level does negatively impact sentiment and
does generate more cautious inventory procurement and
management, which could add to the softer tone we now expect in
the near term," JP Morgan analysts led by Lawrence Eagles said.
"There is a rising risk of coming into the office one Monday
morning to find OPEC has raised output dramatically," the bank
said, adding, "we believe the time has come for investors to
pare risk and take some profits."
Brent's premium against U.S. benchmark crude West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) was at $6.99 at the close on Thursday, down
from $8.24 a week ago, the widest since February 2009.
U.S. crude stockpiles rose 2.62 million barrels in the week
to Jan. 14, defying forecasts for a 400,000 barrel drawdown,
data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed,
while gasoline and distillate stocks climbed more than expected,
by 4.4 and and 1 million barrels respectively.
The first stock build in seven weeks jolted investors who
had expected inventories to be down significantly due to the
disruption of domestic production after the shutdown of the
Trans Alaska Pipeline.
The line normally ships 12 percent of U.S. crude output and
was back in operation on Monday as producers also restarted,
after a bypass repair to circumvent a leak discovered Jan. 8. It
was expected to ramp up to normal rates of about 630,000 barrels
per day by early next week.
China's fourth quarter gross domestic product rose above
forecasts, raising worries that booming growth may lead to
inflation. Investors are worried that any steps by China to slow
growth may result in a hard landing for markets in 2011.
U.S. crude for March added 9 cents to $89.71 on
Friday, down more than 1.8 percent this week. The February
contract expired on Thursday, settling at $88.86.
(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)